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Simon F

PostPosted: Wed Jan 28, 2009 10:01 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 28/01 Ade
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Good gameplay today. Offers that were generous which would be a deal for a targetist and a decision for a good reader of the board. I was expecting a bit more at 2 box (it was certainly the lowest % of the mean offer in the second half of the game) but given the high blue as backup, it was understandable, although it's a good chance that had the 5 box offer been dealt today, a banker's gamble could have offered at the end of today's game.

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Michael DeVere

PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2009 12:09 am    Author: Michael DeVere    Post subject: Re: 28/01 Ade

Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2006 6:46 pm
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Ade finally plays his game and it turned out to be a good one. Some generous offers to start with (£20,000 less so). I wasn't expecting an opening offer of £11,500 after Ade's opening round. Even an all blue round these days sometimes struggles to get a first offer of five figures.

I did think the last offer was a bit low and I was actually expecting an offer of £23,000, following in the 1k increases of Ade's offers from £20k, £21k, then £22k. At least £17,500 was a reasonable offer though, and it all depends on if you're willing to take a 50/50 gamble by that stage or deal the guaranteed amount on offer. Of which Ade did the latter.

It's a shame that Ade didn't pick box 14 as his last box instead as it would of resulted in a 2-box situation of £50,000 & £75,000.


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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2009 12:19 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 28/01 Ade

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Pretty much concur with what's been said, Ade played the game well and it was just a shame it didn't pan out at the end.

I'm with Ade in that i wouldn't want to gamble on an all or nothing final two, however i did think that final offer a little low and that might have been enough to persuade me to go for it.

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2009 12:48 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 28/01 Ade

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Interesting game today - I was surprised at the generosity of the 1st offer, which turned out to set the platform for gradual increases throughout the game, even if not on the same generosity scale. The final 2 offers were perfectly pitched, although the board was still stable at 5-box, with even the last remaining blue being the highest. I don't think Ade ever intended to gamble on an all-or-peanuts final 2 with any half reasonable offer, even if he had been offered the swap.

Anyway, thoroughly enjoyable game - been waiting to see how it would unfold for 114 days, and it was well worth the wait! :P

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DanJudge

PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2009 10:36 am    Author: DanJudge    Post subject: Re: 28/01 Ade

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The banker got it right yesterday, by that I mean that he kept the offers around the range where Ade normally advised people to be safe, particularly near the end of the game.

I remember when being on the wings that his advice always followed the same theme of turning down big money early, but playing safe when the options are dwindling. It was always clear to me that he wouldn't go home with a blue. I believe he is 82 (correct me if I'm wrong) and he has no reason to chase massive money. He ever intended to gamble near the end, but I think he would have turned down £25k on the first offer! He is someone who will always go on if they have backup and always play safe when it dwindles (maybe this is Adeism, ha ha ha).

Another really good trick by the banker that would catch out most players is the way the offer went up even though the big one went. Players are used to (and accept) the fact that when the big ones go, the offer drops a lot more than it should. When the offers went up after 250k and 100k, this looks like huge generosity on the bankers part, but these increased offers started from an original offer that was too low anyway (in my opinion). I'm certain I actually said this, but it must have been edited out.

Either way. I always believe that anything above £10-15,000 is a win, no matter what has happened. He's a happy man and was over the moon, despite what could have, should have, would have happened.


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Tom

PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2009 12:39 pm    Author: Tom    Post subject: Re: 28/01 Ade

Joined: Wed May 24, 2006 11:15 am
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Another good game from a decent character. We all knew his game was going to be good due to his time on the wings.

Some of the offers were very generous but it was nice to see Ade go for it. I don't criticise his deal either.


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KP

PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2009 5:14 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 28/01 Ade
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DanJudge wrote:
I remember when being on the wings that his advice always followed the same theme of turning down big money early, but playing safe when the options are dwindling.


An over-simplified approach, to be sure, and it leads to many results that violate Danielist principles. However, it is a good way to maximise your chances at a Power 5 win while minimising your risk of a blue win.

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It was always clear to me that he wouldn't go home with a blue. I believe he is 82 (correct me if I'm wrong) and he has no reason to chase massive money.


Read: his utility curve flattens out in the Power 5 range a lot more than would be true of a younger player. For me, £250,000 is clearly distinguishable from £100,000 - the former buys a decent-sized house without a mortgage, the latter doesn't. For Ade, the two may as well be the same.

Quote:
Another really good trick by the banker that would catch out most players is the way the offer went up even though the big one went. Players are used to (and accept) the fact that when the big ones go, the offer drops a lot more than it should. When the offers went up after 250k and 100k, this looks like huge generosity on the bankers part, but these increased offers started from an original offer that was too low anyway (in my opinion). I'm certain I actually said this, but it must have been edited out.


I'm sure you did. His offer variations certainly were well-judged in this one; high early offer, a 'generosity lag' in the next two rounds, then a genuinely surprising increase, then a slightly less surprising one. Most players would have taken £21,000 or £22,000 - and most of those would have done so for the wrong reasons. The correct thing to do was to assess each on its merits - and there was a sound case for going on each time, albeit mostly relating to the lack of downside potential. Usually by that stage of the game, the risks and rewards relative to the offer are huge. This time, they were much more limited due to the board stability.

Quote:
Either way. I always believe that anything above £10-15,000 is a win, no matter what has happened. He's a happy man and was over the moon, despite what could have, should have, would have happened.


The long-run mean win was about £17,000 in the first two years of the show, and the long-run median win £13,000. Those numbers doubtless fell a grand or more in 2008, certainly the former, so your assertion that a five-figure win is a decent result is well-founded.

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James1978

PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2009 8:54 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 28/01 Ade

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
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Ade's 82? I thought he was about 60 - he looks great for his age!

Shame about the finish but I guess without a swap guaranteed when you have confidence the money is in the other box, he won't regret it by playing safe. Neither will he regret missing the £750 on the wings rather than the £50k that was left at 3-box, as it sounded like Box 14 was the one he wanted all along.

I found the £17,500 offer a little disappointing, especially as the earlier offers were testers, I'm sure a targetist would have grabbed one of them, but it was a great case of banker reading the player, as Daniel had confiemed. And £17,500 is still a great sum to take away. :)

Another E11 legend goes!!

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Simon F

PostPosted: Thu Jan 29, 2009 10:30 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 28/01 Ade
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Ade is 82??? :blueponder. I put him at about half that age.

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