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clareclw1

PostPosted: Mon Jan 26, 2009 11:49 pm    Author: clareclw1    Post subject: Re: 26/01 Steve
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StatsMan wrote:

The only saving grace and light amusement was the stats exchange between the banker and Daniel - good to finally see another statsman in the wings, albeit with a fundamentally flawed quoting of figures! :P More, please!


Dan, they are not letting you live this down!!!!

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 12:06 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 26/01 Steve
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Simon F wrote:
If the stats don't matter on DOND, you might as well open your box at the beginning of the game because otherwise what have you got in order to make your decisions?


Noel and the pressure to make 'good television'.

Oh, wait, that produces the same outcome.

I'm reminded of a quote very early in the show's life, on the Bar, asking why, 'in a game with only one decision to make', the players 'do not consider the one thing they have available to them - mathematical probability'.

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 12:15 am    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 26/01 Steve
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Whilst probability can be used to help players make their decisions, I think a lot of players wouldn't necessarily take notice of it even if they did know the odds of certain things happening. If they have a 4 blues / 1 red board, the chances are that obviously they'll have a blue in their box. However they could be lured by the sight of the red and want to give it a go, regardless of the odds. Conversely, even if a player has a 4 reds / 1 blue board (and therefore a good chance of having a red in their box), the blue simply being there on the board at all could spook them into dealing.

I think that surely explains why some players seem to make "bad" decisions at times. Maureen the other week had a board which was in her favour, but she dealt because she was clearly spooked by the prospect of a blue win. Similarly, other players such as Sarah have been lured in by the sight of the big money on the board and have no dealt generous offers on weak boards, simply in order to try and have a go at winning the big money.

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 12:16 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 26/01 Steve
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Very true. And in many ways that's the fascination of the game. This run of episodes will be all the more fascinating because the players will be making informed decisions thanks to Dan's presence on the wings - hopefully better ones (last week certainly hinted as much, and today's episode didn't challenge that either).

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Simon F

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 12:39 am    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 26/01 Steve
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h2005 wrote:
Whilst probability can be used to help players make their decisions, I think a lot of players wouldn't necessarily take notice of it even if they did know the odds of certain things happening. If they have a 4 blues / 1 red board, the chances are that obviously they'll have a blue in their box. However they could be lured by the sight of the red and want to give it a go, regardless of the odds. Conversely, even if a player has a 4 reds / 1 blue board (and therefore a good chance of having a red in their box), the blue simply being there on the board at all could spook them into dealing.

I think that surely explains why some players seem to make "bad" decisions at times. Maureen the other week had a board which was in her favour, but she dealt because she was clearly spooked by the prospect of a blue win. Similarly, other players such as Sarah have been lured in by the sight of the big money on the board and have no dealt generous offers on weak boards, simply in order to try and have a go at winning the big money.


I agree that on games like today at 5-box, the odds are against you keeping the £75k in play but then you consider what odds you are getting if you keep it in play (in today's case probably at least 10-1 on a 40% probability) so that helps you decide whether the risk is worth it. That's why decent poker players who come on the show should have an advantage.

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 12:41 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 26/01 Steve

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Gutted for Steve.

To go from such a healthy board to irreversible train wreck was really undeserved. And to pick the £75k at the last possible moment like that, complete nightmare (though my gut was saying he should have gone for Ty)

Still, some nice humour and Steve has something money can't buy - congratulations to him on the latest addition to his family

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 1:33 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 26/01 Steve

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KP wrote:
Very true. And in many ways that's the fascination of the game. This run of episodes will be all the more fascinating because the players will be making informed decisions thanks to Dan's presence on the wings - hopefully better ones (last week certainly hinted as much, and today's episode didn't challenge that either).


Let's hope so, although having done some detective work, I should think you would have more informed knowledge about this than most, having seen a February episode already :P In light of your comments on Noel, I really can't wait for that!

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DanJudge

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 11:44 am    Author: DanJudge    Post subject: Re: 26/01 Steve

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I agree that on games like today at 5-box, the odds are against you keeping the £75k in play but then you consider what odds you are getting if you keep it in play (in today's case probably at least 10-1 on a 40% probability) so that helps you decide whether the risk is worth it. That's why decent poker players who come on the show should have an advantage.


I think this nails it perfectly for me.

Steve never had a real tempter. The £16k was decent and it wouldn't have been the worst deal in the world, but I think it was justified to go on a little further. He was unlucky really. The £1,500 off was ridiculous.


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Tom

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 11:48 am    Author: Tom    Post subject: Re: 26/01 Steve

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First of all, just give up Mark. We don't want change, it works fine as it is.

Secondly, that was a harsh game. Steve was just very unlucky. The £1,500 offer was an insult and I wish it would have worked out for him.

I think Dan is one of the best additions to the show for a while. I don't mean that nastily to any current contestants but it is good to have a statsman on the wings.


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DanJudge

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 12:24 pm    Author: DanJudge    Post subject: Re: 26/01 Steve

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I've had some really nice comments so far. I was a little surprised by this. I assumed that a calculated and sensible approach to offers is not what the average viewer would like to see. I thought the viewers just wanted to see people take big gambles in the search for the big ones!!


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greeny

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 12:38 pm    Author: greeny    Post subject: Re: 26/01 Steve

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There are undoubtedly people like that out there, and indeed on here there are some who just want to see players gambling, but most of us like to see a good game played sensibly with a sensible risk taken, with sensible advice from the wings, and you undoubtedly have given and will give excellent advice to contestants.


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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 1:01 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 26/01 Steve
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Put it this way - the show doesn't have enough statsmen on the show - that's why those who do get on the show are remembered always (Ned and Ed for example) - That's why I'd love Lewis or KP to get on the show one day :P

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Dr. Hindsight

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 3:53 pm    Author: Dr. Hindsight    Post subject: Re: 26/01 Steve

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Dan, if you can save people's games and help them make better decisions with your knowledge, then I'm all for it. Here's hoping all goes well for you.

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Last edited by Dr. Hindsight on Tue Jan 27, 2009 4:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 4:10 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 26/01 Steve
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DanJudge wrote:
I've had some really nice comments so far. I was a little surprised by this. I assumed that a calculated and sensible approach to offers is not what the average viewer would like to see. I thought the viewers just wanted to see people take big gambles in the search for the big ones!!


There's 2 sides of me that watches the show. There's the "contestants should read the board and not take unneccesary gambles" side but there's also the "wanting to see exciting finishes to the game and people win big money" side. Games like Morris's and Orry's come to mind as ones where I probably didn't agree with the gamble at the end but they make compelling TV.

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Jan 28, 2009 3:41 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 26/01 Steve
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DanJudge wrote:
I've had some really nice comments so far. I was a little surprised by this. I assumed that a calculated and sensible approach to offers is not what the average viewer would like to see. I thought the viewers just wanted to see people take big gambles in the search for the big ones!!


As a few here would say, this place isn't typical, it draws a particular crowd, quite a few of them mathematical. At the same time, don't forget the core daytime TV audience is students and pensioners - both groups noted for money issues (and in the latter case, disproportionately likely to read conservative-leaning newspapers, many of which have railed against casino expansion and the like).

All told though, I believe your assertion was probably broadly true. It has probably become substantially less so in light of the fact we are now in a recession that can be easily blamed on excessive and irrational risk-taking.

The viewers want excitement and entertainment. A format as open as this one can produce it many different ways - although it is a show about risk, it doesn't need risk-takers to be entertaining because of the emphasis that can be placed on the contestants. For a while, the show was failing in that respect; that is no longer true.

Quote:
There's 2 sides of me that watches the show. There's the "contestants should read the board and not take unneccesary gambles" side but there's also the "wanting to see exciting finishes to the game and people win big money" side. Games like Morris's and Orry's come to mind as ones where I probably didn't agree with the gamble at the end but they make compelling TV.


Compelling is the word. I suspect many people - often, though not always, including myself - end up willing the player to lose, while others obviously don't! It's certainly edge-of-your-seat stuff no matter what outcome you're rooting for, just like the end of a close sporting match.

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