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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 5:26 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie
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Dan

With a bit of knowledge of combinations, working out the odds is a lot easier. Mister Al worked them all out ages ago on Bother's Bar, although seeing as you've played now, it might be a bit late to point this out.

http://www.bothersbar.co.uk/toteboard.htm

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MisterAl

PostPosted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 5:27 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie
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KP wrote:
He was referring to the chance of keeping the top three for two whole rounds. Though your numbers above all look correct.

The chances of keeping any three from 11-box to 5-box = (8/11)*(7/10)*(6/9)*(5/8)*(4/7)*(3/6) which cancels out to 2/33 - 6.06%.

Or, more quickly using the theory of combinatorics, 8C6 / 11C6. Which equals 28/462, cancelling down to 2/33.

Pascal's Triangle is your friend!

(Edit: Like Simon F said.)

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DanJudge

PostPosted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 5:34 pm    Author: DanJudge    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie

Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2009 6:40 pm
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Did she go from 11 box to 5 box without hitting the top 3?

Nice. I still haven't watched it back yet. Thats pretty good going. I see I'm at home on here with all the maths geeks, lol.


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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 5:37 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie
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DanJudge wrote:
Did she go from 11 box to 5 box without hitting the top 3?

Nice. I still haven't watched it back yet. Thats pretty good going. I see I'm at home on here with all the maths geeks, lol.


Yep. She took the top 2 out in the first round and then had the rest of the power 5 left at 5 box.

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DanJudge

PostPosted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 5:40 pm    Author: DanJudge    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie

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Yeah, I used most of those stats on the show actually, so we could play a game of statistic bingo in the coming weeks!!!!

I actually quote 26,334 in my game (no other spoilers) and I worked it out to be 1.2 quadrillion different combinations of boards from start to finish.


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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 5:45 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie
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DanJudge wrote:
Yeah, I used most of those stats on the show actually, so we could play a game of statistic bingo in the coming weeks!!!!

I actually quote 26,334 in my game (no other spoilers) and I worked it out to be 1.2 quadrillion different combinations of boards from start to finish.


That's good to hear - although knowing the statistics of the game is no guarantee that luck will go and bite the statistics in the bum (Geordie in the early days of the show was a prime example).

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clareclw1

PostPosted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 5:46 pm    Author: clareclw1    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie
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Dan you seem to be in good company!!!!

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MisterAl

PostPosted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 5:47 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie
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DanJudge wrote:
I worked it out to be 1.2 quadrillion different combinations of boards from start to finish.

1,124,000,727,777,607,680,000 to be precise.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 5:48 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie
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MisterAl wrote:
DanJudge wrote:
I worked it out to be 1.2 quadrillion different combinations of boards from start to finish.

1,124,000,727,777,607,680,000 to be precise.


Drat, you beat me to it, Mister Al.

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DanJudge

PostPosted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 6:03 pm    Author: DanJudge    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie

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Nice, but I worked it out in my head, lol.


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MisterAl

PostPosted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 6:20 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie
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DanJudge wrote:
Nice, but I worked it out in my head, lol.

Must be why you were out by a factor of about a billion, then! Unless you were using the old-fashioned use of the word 'quadrillion', that is, in which case you were only out by a factor of about a thousand.

(I really need to do something more interesting with my life...)

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 6:30 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie
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DanJudge wrote:
Nice, but I worked it out in my head, lol.


It's the only way unless you have a scientific calculator or a spreadsheet handy.

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DanJudge

PostPosted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 8:16 pm    Author: DanJudge    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie

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My innacuracy might be down to working it out on an iphone calculator (9 digits), then rounding up/down, trimming off a few factors and adding them all on at the end. I new I would be out a bit. That is why I didn't use that one on the show, ha ha ha.

Cheers for the correction though. I think I might be out of my depth on here so don't expect too much from me, ha ha ha.


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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 9:05 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie
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DanJudge wrote:
My innacuracy might be down to working it out on an iphone calculator (9 digits), then rounding up/down, trimming off a few factors and adding them all on at the end. I new I would be out a bit. That is why I didn't use that one on the show, ha ha ha.

Cheers for the correction though. I think I might be out of my depth on here so don't expect too much from me, ha ha ha.


That would explain it. Unless you are a student, not many people have scientific calculators.

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Tom

PostPosted: Mon Jan 26, 2009 12:05 pm    Author: Tom    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie

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Another very good game, and an OPW as well. £28,000 was a great offer for that board.


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Marroo

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 12:36 am    Author: Marroo    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie

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taff wrote:
Another hugely enjoyable show. Anyone know where Debbie's fish and chip shop is in Leeds and I'll call in when in the neighbourhood.


She said on the show that it was on Kirkstall Lane , so i guess it'll be somewhere near Yorkshire's Headingley Cricket ground . :smt023


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clareclw1

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2009 12:45 am    Author: clareclw1    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie
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I have been to Debbie's chippy and can certainly vouch for the food there!! It was lovely and Debbie and the other staff members are lovely!!! worth a visit if u can get there guys!!!

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