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DanJudge

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2009 5:56 pm    Author: DanJudge    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie

Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2009 6:40 pm
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Debbie was great. She deserves every penny. I look forward to seeing it again.


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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2009 5:59 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie
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travis P wrote:
She should've asked if it was Harry Ramsden's fish and chips twice as that would be tempting... :-D


God I want some now! :lol: You've been on fire with these puns today! :P

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clareclw1

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2009 6:01 pm    Author: clareclw1    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie
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Joined: Sat Jan 03, 2009 12:50 am
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what a great game! i forgot how fab it was!!
i thought debbie and louis came across like the lovely people they are, ah, how fab!!!!! :-D

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killersbee

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2009 6:02 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie
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Big-Davey wrote:
You've been on fire with these puns today! :P


So have I, more or less ;)

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travis P

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2009 6:05 pm    Author: travis P    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie

Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 3:40 pm
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Big-Davey wrote:
travis P wrote:
She should've asked if it was Harry Ramsden's fish and chips twice as that would be tempting... :-D


God I want some now! :lol: You've been on fire with these puns today! :P


I wasn't the only one ;) I was fortunate to watch this in full today as I decided to book a day off from work.


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collydolly

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2009 6:11 pm    Author: collydolly    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie

Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: West Yorkshire
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Well done Debbie, a fun game with a brilliant result, enjoy the money :D

I bet her shop is busy tonight :D

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rico7

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2009 6:39 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie
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Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 10:36 am
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Really good show today with lively banter and energy.

I was concerned when Debbie no dealt at 16K because there was only an 18% chance
of retaining those 3 Power 5 amounts to 5 box and I'm sure the offer would have gone down
even if only one of those had been knocked out but the gamble paid off.

Great Outright Player Win, well done Debbie!


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h2005

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2009 7:12 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie
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Joined: Thu Feb 16, 2006 3:13 pm
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:shock: I've just realised whenever I mentioned F.anny Haddocks, it's changed it to "*beep*'s Haddocks"... time to do some editing there.

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KP

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2009 7:19 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie
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I'd have gone at £16,000 - and, in fact, I'd have done so with one eye on a prospective Banker's Gamble if my two-box showdown had one and only one of the three...

But there's no arguing with an OPW!

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taff

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2009 8:29 pm    Author: taff    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie

Joined: Wed Dec 12, 2007 7:14 pm
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Another hugely enjoyable show. Anyone know where Debbie's fish and chip shop is in Leeds and I'll call in when in the neighbourhood.


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h2005

PostPosted: Fri Jan 23, 2009 8:46 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie
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A fun and lively show with lots of silly jokes about fish! Good to see some more useful advice from the wings too. Well done Debbie for getting out at just the right time!

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Sat Jan 24, 2009 12:24 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:21 am
Location: Oxfordshire
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Funny how often you get patterns in this show, considering the random nature of the game, Debbie's game had a similar finish to Winston's & Trev's (in fact she was a whisker away from an identical finish to Trev) except this time the 5 box deal was irrefutable.

A brilliant turnaround and a well deserved OPW for a great lady,what a way to end the week.

Now let's hope we don;t have another Sunday mood-killer.

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mallard2007

PostPosted: Sat Jan 24, 2009 12:35 am    Author: mallard2007    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie

Joined: Fri Dec 14, 2007 1:24 am
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nice to see Debbie put the banker in his PLAICE ;) Well done Debbie! :)


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StatsMan

PostPosted: Sat Jan 24, 2009 12:45 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
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Hugely enjoyable show today. Debbie brought great energy and exuberance to her game, and the fish jokes were quite entertaining (although by the end, I'd just about haddock enough of them :P )

£28k was pretty much a cast iron deal in my book, even given the stability of the board. With the 1p left, there was an opportunity of a really low offer if she carried on, and even though the odds were in her favour, I wouldn't be willing to risk £28k on that board with 5 combinations (50%) of the picks meaning an all-or-peanuts finish or complete disaster. Even the best of those (£1k/£75k) would only secure probably £20k.

Anyway, overall a great game. It's fitting that Jane's replacement should win exactly the same amount as her (albeit without the holiday)! (wonder how often a replacement has won exactly the same as their predecessor :ponder: )

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James1978

PostPosted: Sat Jan 24, 2009 12:17 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
Location: Darlington, NE England
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Really enjoyed that one, indeed all the shows this week have been really good despite no power 5 wins, everyone so far has won a healthy amount.

That game had something in it for everyone - a couple of good offers that were arguable either way turned down for the no-dealers resulting in a much higher offer at 5-box, and a proveout that went well for the dealers. And also an entertaining and very lively contestant and lots of comedy with the fish & chip jokes. I knew Debbie had something about her and she'd win a very large amount - I honestly thought she'd go all the way, but her charisma extracted an offer out of the banker that was nearly 90% of the mean with 1p still on the board (which usually drags the offers down when it's still in play) so that was fantastic.

And I thought she was about mid-late 30s, so I was stunned when I saw how old her son was!!

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KP

PostPosted: Sat Jan 24, 2009 1:19 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
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Every Friday night for months it felt like h was saying how we were on for the worst week ever...

...well going into this weekend's show, we are on for the highest minimum win in a week! Trev's £15,500 is the lowest all week, and I think the previous record is £10,022!

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granitecitybino

PostPosted: Sat Jan 24, 2009 8:44 pm    Author: granitecitybino    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie
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Joined: Thu Jan 11, 2007 10:05 pm
Location: Aberdeen
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That was a brilliant deal and OPW getting £28k on a board with a £32k mean at 5 box......and with the 1p still in there too.

Well done Debbie......enjoy the £28k



Jim


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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 2:39 am    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie
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Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
Location: Leeds
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Finally got round to watching Debbie's show and wish I'd watched it earlier. Yet another Leeds resident coming up with a brilliant OPW (even though she certainly rode her luck in keeping the top 3 in play from 11 box to 5 box which I think was about a 6% chance).

Good to see Daniel with a grasp of the stats of the game. Hopefully, it will help the contestants over the next few weeks.

I'm sure I recognise Debbie from another show (a fish and ship owner from Leeds seems very familiar) but I can't plaice her at the moment.

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DanJudge

PostPosted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 5:12 pm    Author: DanJudge    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie

Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2009 6:40 pm
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She is really as lovely as she came off on TV. Incidentally, to avoid all top 3 boxes from 8box to 5box is 17.85%, but still good going nethertheless.56 scenarios from 8 box to 5 box, each one being 1.785%, 10 of these scenarios do not hit the big 3.




I'm not being an ass by correcting you by the way, but I thought you might be interested. If anyone is interested (although it seems like there are a few statmen(or women) on here already, but this is something I knocked up when I was about to get on the show.). It's all the scenarios from 8 and 5 box.

5 BOXES
123
124
125
134
135
145
234
235
245
345

Hit at least
1 box 60.00%
2 box 30.00%
3 box 10.00%

Avoid
1 box 40.00%
2 boxes 90.00%


8 BOXES
123 - 1
124
125
126
127
128 - 6
134
135
136
137
138
145
146
147
148
156
157
158
167
168
178 - 21
234
235
236
237
238
245
246
247
248
256
257
258
267
268
278 - 36
345
346
347
348
356
357
358
367
368
378 - 46
456
457
458
467
468
478
567
568
578
678 - 56

Hit at least
1 box 37.50% - 21 scenarios
2 box 10.71% - 6 scenarios
3 box 1.79% - 1 scenario

Avoid
1 box 62.50% - 35 scenarios
2 boxes 35.71% - 20 scenarios
3 boxes 17.86% - 10 scenarios


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KP

PostPosted: Sun Jan 25, 2009 5:17 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 23/01 Debbie
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He was referring to the chance of keeping the top three for two whole rounds. Though your numbers above all look correct.

The chances of keeping any three from 11-box to 5-box = (8/11)*(7/10)*(6/9)*(5/8)*(4/7)*(3/6) which cancels out to 2/33 - 6.06%.

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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