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h2005

PostPosted: Sat Jan 17, 2009 1:19 am    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 16/01 Tony
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That was one of the most intriguing games for a long while. I thought Tony would deal at £25k... then I thought he'd deal at £40k, and of course I assumed he'd definitely take the £16k to avoid going home with nothing. How wrong was I! The offers were very well pitched and it was once again good banker play as they weren't obvious immediate deals or no deals for Tony - they got him thinking.

It's a shame to see a player go for it like Tony did, only to end up being punished by bad luck and ending up winning peanuts. I suppose when you have the option of dealing £16k after turning down £40k, you either think you may as well go for it, or you think you'll cut your losses and stop there. Turning down £40k and winning 50p must be painful - hopefully it didn't get to him too much, although luckily he seemed to take it on the chin.

If a player can live with the decision they've made then it was probably the right one for them even though other people may have done differently.

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KP

PostPosted: Sat Jan 17, 2009 1:34 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 16/01 Tony
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h2005 wrote:
If a player can live with the decision they've made then it was probably the right one for them even though other people may have done differently.


Which applies equally to Deals and No Deals, although Noel is more likely to say as much for people like Tony than for early Dealers who have no regrets.

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rico7

PostPosted: Sat Jan 17, 2009 1:57 am    Author: rico7    Post subject: Re: 16/01 Tony
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Tony set his stall out as early as on the wings as being a player who wanted to go all the way
so I didn't see him backing down by dealing at 16K it would have been too much of
a loss of pride in a show where it really was a contestant against the banker something
that Noel set the prelude for at the start of the show.

The 5 box configuration at the end was almost perfect for someone who wants to go for
the 250K, and I think Tony would have gone to the end almost regardless, but he
will have to reflect on whether the gamble was worth it. I don't think it was personally because
many players would have walked for a lot less than 40K but I admire Tony's courage, and that's what it will take to see our first male quarter millionaire.


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KP

PostPosted: Sat Jan 17, 2009 2:14 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 16/01 Tony
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rico7 wrote:
I didn't see him backing down by dealing at 16K it would have been too much of a loss of pride in a show where it really was a contestant against the banker something that Noel set the prelude for at the start of the show.


Precisely. Noel's blatantly obvious preferences biting him on the backside a-gain. Although you're right that Tony was going to be a Wakeyist anyway, making him perfect for joining the 50p club that Dennis founded courtesy of an AMO rejection!

I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the hotel/contestant holding area after that one!

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mallard2007

PostPosted: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:10 am    Author: mallard2007    Post subject: Re: 16/01 Tony

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oh no! :( What terrible bad luck right at the end. He deserved to get £50k after being brave! :(


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James1978

PostPosted: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:54 am    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 16/01 Tony

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What I will say is that was definitely one of the most exciting blue wins there's ever been, certainly better than your average trainwrecks that happened so often in the autumn. I actually thought that Tony was goinjg to be someone who pretends they're a gambler and actually turn out dealing early, and thought he'd be out of there with 25k, so was pleased he no-dealt that, and I thought dealing 40k would have been great having taken a risk at 25k to get there, and I almost had to hide behond the sofa when he turned it down! I can understand why he no-dealt 16k too, I think a lot of people would find it hard to deal less than half what you've already turned down when there'a still an amount left that would give you an OPW.

What I will say is that he no-dealt offers that were right for the board, it just felt more extreme becuase of so many poor offers and cautious players in recent months, it's like we suddenly rewound 2 years there! And also he took it loads better than his namesake from halloween who had a similar game but with one to open - he had Box 13 too!! He was prepared for it to go wrong, so I can't criticise the way he played it - barring joke offers, it takes someone like him to win the 250k after all.

Both my dad and a friend who I met up with after the game both called him cocky and greedy and he got what he deserved - and I said to them how the opposite view usually tends to be present on the forum! :)

Incidentally, Tony is the closest I imagine basicasic being if he ever played - I remember basic saying he's be a lot more cautious if he was gambling with money he'd earned rather than money he never had and Tony hinted at something similar......

A very memorable game and contestant (especially the robot box-openings!), despite the tiny amount won. :(

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KP

PostPosted: Sat Jan 17, 2009 12:13 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 16/01 Tony
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Interesting comments, there.

Most people generally frame their decisions in terms of gains and losses (e.g. for Tony's two-box decision, losing £15,999.50 or gaining £34,000). Tony's tendency appeared to be to frame the decisions in terms of gains (winning 50p or winning £50,000).

For what it's worth, I'd have Dealt the £25k because I wouldn't have expected a generous five-box offer so I felt the gains weren't there unless you were playing for your box, which I wouldn't want to commit to at eight-box and especially not on that configuration! Failing that, I'd have Dealt the £40k thinking that there was a 30% chance of the Banker's Gamble - 10% on £35k/£50k which I'd definitely take, and 20% on £250k/blue which I'd probably take!

But neither decision was stupid, and the £16k ND was just simple loss-chasing - nothing we haven't seen before, just never at those stakes before unless you count Orry!

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alexandercbrown

PostPosted: Sat Jan 17, 2009 2:49 pm    Author: alexandercbrown    Post subject: Re: 16/01 Tony

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16K is about right for that finish - but I would still no deal although not quite so sure if turned down 40K. - the show is sort of 'mixed' at the moment I would say from what I've read.

Bit of an ugly game.


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johnr

PostPosted: Sat Jan 17, 2009 3:01 pm    Author: johnr    Post subject: Re: 16/01 Tony

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KP wrote:
Because the decision was made well after those episodes were recorded :) We're now into episodes recorded in the autumn, after the Sunday move was confirmed.


My point exactly, if this show was recorded after last Sundays show when Noel said 'See you Monday' then why has he suddenly decided to slip back to 'See you Saturday' on yesterdays show! :lol:


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h2005

PostPosted: Sat Jan 17, 2009 3:22 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 16/01 Tony
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I did notice at the end of yesterday's show that he said "See you tomorrow" but also said "See you tomorrow" at the end of last Sunday's episode. :? I assume his comment at the end of yesterday's show was just a slip of the tongue.

Proves my point from ages ago about Noel getting on a bit. ;)

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MisterAl

PostPosted: Sat Jan 17, 2009 4:22 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject: Re: 16/01 Tony
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h2005 wrote:
Proves my point from ages ago about Noel getting on a bit. ;)

Well, at least his hair is still looking immaculate.

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Power5

PostPosted: Sat Jan 17, 2009 9:27 pm    Author: Power5    Post subject: Re: 16/01 Tony
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Skyline wrote:
Power5 wrote:
Skyline wrote:
I wish he had the £50,000 really, but I just knew he would have 50p.

Oh well, he can by a pick and mix with that! ;)

Does anywhere still sell them? ;)


The ice-cream van which stops at our school does for 50p ;)

Oh, "pick and mix" is an ice-cream? Thought you were talking about what used to be Woolworths' finest "loose sweets with germs on" (as I saw someone describe them recently) - now consigned to the history books or maybe still a few cinemas and theme parks!

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KP

PostPosted: Sat Jan 17, 2009 9:29 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 16/01 Tony
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Hah! Me too...

My student union shop does pick and mix, of all places!

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I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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h2005

PostPosted: Sat Jan 17, 2009 9:30 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 16/01 Tony
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Don't Tesco still do a pick & mix type thing?

Why the hell am I discussing pick & mix here?!

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James1978

PostPosted: Sat Jan 17, 2009 10:56 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 16/01 Tony

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Just thought, Tony is the first player to no-deal a power 5 and ending up winning a banker's power 5 (as in that's all he went home with, so exclude Orry. :) )

Has anyone done the reverse? As in have an offer in banker's power 5 range and win a power 5 red? I know Ed nearly did after his offer of 18p but not quite! Did Keran get a joke offer somewhere along the line or something similar? :)

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h2005

PostPosted: Sat Jan 17, 2009 11:34 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 16/01 Tony
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I've just checked the lowest offers ever (using MisterAl's "highlights of nine hundred" thread here) and Keran did get a joke offer at 14-box of £2.

Also Rossano (who won £35,000) got a joke first offer of £5.50, although that's just outside of the Banker's Power 5!

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wicked stepmother

PostPosted: Mon Jan 19, 2009 12:35 pm    Author: wicked stepmother    Post subject: Re: 16/01 Tony
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KP wrote:
I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the hotel/contestant holding area after that one!


My husband was there that day and actually saw Tony asleep in the Green Room after his game - he was totally wiped out by it all!! :smt009

Personally I don't think I would have slept for a fortnight if I'd let that much money slip through my fingers :eyes: OH had told me Tony went away with a small amount but I had no idea just how spectacular his train-crash was. I was yelling at the telly when he was turning down the big offers :oops:


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