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kestral

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 5:54 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 13/01 Eddie
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Banker's offer would've been:

£160

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 5:55 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 13/01 Eddie
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Oh, OK, forget the all-or-peanuts scenario, he's only gone and hit the 10% chance!

£165 or £160? £160.

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Last edited by KP on Tue Jan 13, 2009 5:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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kestral

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 5:55 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 13/01 Eddie
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Noel opens box 2 and reveals £100

Box 17 with Cassi contains the £250

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 5:56 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 13/01 Eddie
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If the intention of offering £16,000 and not the mentioned (and previously referenced) £16,500 was to encourage a No Deal, it was far more insulting than anything Trev said to the Banker, and I am delighted that it backfired spectacularly.

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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travis P

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 6:01 pm    Author: travis P    Post subject: Re: 13/01 Eddie

Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 3:40 pm
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KP wrote:
If the intention of offering £16,000 and not the mentioned (and previously referenced) £16,500 was to encourage a No Deal, it was far more insulting than anything Trev said to the Banker, and I am delighted that it backfired spectacularly.


There was two mentions. As you stated the £16,500 for winning a squash tournament but £16,000 was a reference from his missus mentioning that amount is what the first round losers receive at the Wimbledon tennis tournament.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 6:05 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: 13/01 Eddie

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I think that "got away with murder" comes to mind here with a very stable 5-box and a low offer. Well done anyway.

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Michael DeVere

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 6:07 pm    Author: Michael DeVere    Post subject: Re: 13/01 Eddie

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An enjoyable game I thought and as it turned out it proved to be a good deal. I suspect the Banker would have just stuck again if it was a blue vs £75,000 final two anyway.


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 6:09 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 13/01 Eddie
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Stable five-box but not a low offer.

Unless you're now convinced that (admittedly on a stable board) 75%-odd of the mean is 'low'. Sigh.

No wonder contestants are leaving this place in droves!

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 6:13 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: 13/01 Eddie

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Well at least it looks it, with a 60% chance of leaving there with at least £4,000 higher. :ponder:

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travis P

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 6:17 pm    Author: travis P    Post subject: Re: 13/01 Eddie

Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 3:40 pm
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Aaron Brock wrote:
Well at least it looks it, with a 60% chance of leaving there with at least £4,000 higher. :ponder:


Maybe Eddie cannot afford to lose £12,000 and proved today that he would've lost nearly £16,000.


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killersbee

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 6:23 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 13/01 Eddie
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Well, that was a great result for Eddie

And a great Epic Win to boot! :D

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Dr. Hindsight

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 6:44 pm    Author: Dr. Hindsight    Post subject: Re: 13/01 Eddie

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Eddie's got eddies of money to be proud of with £16,000 to his name. Plus, he got the Epic Win / OPW :D ! Congrats to Eddie, and enjoy your winnings :) . I'd have played the game exactly as he did, and dealt at the same point.

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 8:19 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 13/01 Eddie
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Oh for God's sake, you'd have gambled really! :lol:

He did get away with murder there to be honest - but that said, he also deserved an OPW at the same time for not forgetting the very real possibility of an almighty crash at the end of the game.

He won £15,900 more than what I would have anyway...

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James1978

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 8:39 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 13/01 Eddie

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
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Enjoyed that one!

That 16k offer (at 5-box, the one he took) was one where on first instinct you think it's an easy no-deal as there are 3 boxes more than the offer and it's below the median, but when you think about it a bit more, a deal doesn;t sound so silly after all. It was about 70% of the mean with a chance of an all-blue finish, and the most likely (60%) secario was red/blue and I couldn't see even 75k/blue being more than 16k these days. Probably would have been a thirs stick/undeal offer in proveout if he'd avoided Winston - I was preparing for it, then he only took it out anyway! :)

I would have been quite disappointed if he'd dealt at 8-box though (as I though he was going to)- below-median deals are a lot less forgivable at 8-box than at 5-box as the risk of collapse is so much grater, and even the worst possible last 5 still had 20k and 15k in it.

Oh and lots of comedy moments with Eddie, I knew his game would be good, and plenty of it from the wings too.

Was this the first recording of the day? I thought at the start he seemed rather detached (nursing a big hangover) - that could have been from either celebrating Kerrie keeping her house or commiserating with Len and Sarah!!

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Tom

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 9:20 pm    Author: Tom    Post subject: Re: 13/01 Eddie

Joined: Wed May 24, 2006 11:15 am
Location: Suffolk. That's as detailed as I'm going..
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Another really enjoyable game. Eddie was great and provided a lot of humour, with some very funny moments.

His deal is completely understandable in my eyes. Normally I would think no deal due to the three figures above the offer but after reading the board a bit more, it was actually the sensible thing to do. And it worked, so all the best to him.

[James, I noticed the time on his watch. It said either 11.55 or 15.55 so take from that what you will].


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Simon F

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 9:52 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 13/01 Eddie
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An enjoyable game. I'm surprised Eddie didn't remember the banker's remark from a few days ago that on a 3 red / 2 blue board, the likelihood was to take out 2 reds and a blue.

Today at 5 box was a case of deal if you aren't prepared to gamble on a red/blue finish.

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thundercat

PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2009 10:01 pm    Author: thundercat    Post subject: Re: 13/01 Eddie

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Aaron Brock wrote:
I think that "got away with murder" comes to mind here with a very stable 5-box and a low offer. Well done anyway.


Spot on Aaron ;)


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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2009 12:15 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 13/01 Eddie

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:21 am
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Yes, great to see another player victory. Eddie was a great charector and came accross very well in his game.

I can see the argument for going on at 5 box with 3 juicy reds still in play but at the same time i thought £16k was a respectable offer and for someone who presumably doesn't have a steady income well worth taking.

Most importantly it was the right choice for the board, I would have hated to see him crash & burn

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2009 1:03 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 13/01 Eddie
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Simon F wrote:
Today at 5 box was a case of deal if you aren't prepared to gamble on a red/blue finish.


Bang on. And I don't think someone with such an unstable income would be likely to. I'd be personally treating that offer as though it were my last, what with the Banker usually playing hard at two-box.

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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ciderduck

PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2009 9:54 am    Author: ciderduck    Post subject: Re: 13/01 Eddie
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excellent! good result for yet another show i missed because of the ubiquitous digital timer issues...taped this time. with no pic. glad for the commentary on this site but tend to gloss over the post-game analysis, thankfully there wasnt too much on this game, given there's only 3 pages to it!! :P


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