Tom wrote:
I have no problem with his deal, £23,000 is good money, and with the £250,000 the only figure above it, a no deal would have been risky (although perfect in terms of the 2-box scenario). And it wasn't that far away from his target, I'm sure it will at least help to some extent. (KP's emphasis)
That's a good point. I am reminded of Brunhilde's game where she chased her own similarly ambitious target and ended up clearly regretting it, and everyone criticised her No Deals apart from the usual suspects. Who have now gone (and I have to laugh at where the £250,000 was - Box 3
) so, well, I'm mightily relieved people aren't being hypocritical and complaining about this Deal.
The particular thing about this was
what Ryan's target was. Brunhilde's was for one concrete thing with a fixed cost, an operation at a private hospital; Ryan's was for paying off family debt, and it is sensible to accept an offer of a portion of that as having a portion of the effect. In other words, Ryan's utility curve had a point of inflection at £30k - which believe it or not makes it more sensible to Deal in the £20k bracket, because the upside potential in terms of utility is greatly limited. There was a 40% chance of more than £30k, a 20% chance of
much more, and for someone like me whose utility curve is relatively smooth, that's very tempting. For someone for whom £60k is not that much better than £30k, it's not.