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Dr. Hindsight

PostPosted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 7:23 pm    Author: Dr. Hindsight    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11

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This 1996 Nova LFS' fleet number (picture by yours truly) displays what was won today on DoND:

Image

This red box displays the result of accepting that offer:

Image

'Nuff said.

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rico7

PostPosted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 7:54 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11
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Aaron Brock wrote:
What a greedy man, and he got what he deserved. Noel said all that needed to be said; rubbing it in, and then the respect bit, which I agreed with both.


Although it seemed to be an excessively cautious deal with such a strong and stable board, Martin cannot be accused of being greedy. He might have made a promise to his family to deal for anything over 15K for example rather than be greedy and go home with a blue. Everyone has different personal circumstances too that can lead to targetism.


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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 7:54 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11
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Today's show was interesting. I guessed Martin would deal early to be honest... but the board at the time of dealing was such that it wasn't one of the worst deals there has been. I was surprised Noel was rubbing it in so much after yesterday's game where he seemed to be totally the opposite, despite the fact both Andrea and Martin wanted the money for their families. (Yes I know Andrea's circumstances were slightly different.)

I know Martin wanted money for his family... but I wasn't sure about his comment that "his family was playing the game". It's actually his game. Nonetheless he got a good payout from the show, and it was quite spooky that his daughter predicted a £102,000 offer and then he ended up with a final 2 where that offer would've been ideally pitched! His son predicting £250k was in his box wasn't really that spooky but it certainly added to the whole atmosphere.

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Brick

PostPosted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 8:08 pm    Author: Brick    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11
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Half-watching this at the gym... Couldn't hear what was being said but he appeared to be going on a bit at that £16k offer, so wasn't surprised when he dealt, but he really should've gone on! I doubt the 5-box offer would've been that high though, probably around 30k sounds right.

That's 3 Martins in a row who've undersold their box. No wonder a friend of mine uses the name as an insult :ponder:

Tomorrow's player is going to have a struggle on their hands. Mind you that would've been the case if Martin had played to the end too...

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 8:24 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11
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Just a plain bad match of board and player, and the kids' comments just added to that. Unfortunately, that led to what was basically a Wakeyist perfect storm. Thank goodness the Three Wakeyteers got banned and we can have civilised debate here.

While I would have gone on instantly with that offer and board, he's got an excellent sum of money to take home to his family. And I'd rather have regrets and sixteen grand than regrets and a blue, and he would evidently really rather have regrets and sixteen grand than regrets and a blue. I'll give Noel praise for just the one comment; saying board readers tend to do better. A board reader could have gone at five-box, two-box or not at all today depending on their attitude to money - two-box in my case - but they certainly wouldn't have gone at eight-box.

Big praise to MisterAl for pointing out the definition of greed. Of course some would say someone with so little bravery deserves nothing (basicasic would probably articulate this best, to be honest) but then, what counts as deserving? (Having a sob story, according to Endemol...) Entire game show formats exist around the concept of deciding who deserves to win a lot of money (remember Without Prejudice? anyone?), it's that thorny a question...

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MisterAl

PostPosted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 8:25 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11
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wkd wrote:
You could argue, I suppose, he was excessively desirous of acquiring £16k and allowed himself to be blinded to the potential for more.

He was greedy because "he was excessively desirous of acquiring £16,102"?! That argument supposes -- in the words of the dictionary definition -- that £16,102 is more than Martin needed or deserved. In which case, an even greater win would also have been more than Martin needed or deserved.

Are people suggesting that Martin should have carried on and aimed for less?!

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MisterAl

PostPosted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 8:27 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11
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KP wrote:
Entire game show formats exist around the concept of deciding who deserves to win a lot of money (remember Without Prejudice? anyone?), it's that thorny a question...

And Big Brother, of course...

(Thanks also for the praise there, KP.)

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 8:30 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11
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I love the way you dealt with wkd. Of course, the Wakeyist credo is that people become worthy of large sums of money simply by No Dealing. Surely it takes quite a lot of courage to stick to a game plan in the teeth of opposition from the audience and Noel? (Of course, you can criticise the game plan...)

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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MisterAl

PostPosted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 8:45 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11
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KP wrote:
Surely it takes quite a lot of courage to stick to a game plan in the teeth of opposition from the audience and Noel? (Of course, you can criticise the game plan...)

Well, yes. Going against the majority takes definite courage, which is why I also get slightly annoyed when people here describe such deals as 'weak'. Even the sensible posters use this word, and it's simply inappropriate.

'Weak' is not a synonym for 'cautious'!

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Brick

PostPosted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 8:50 pm    Author: Brick    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11
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Anyone else notice Mad Mark's bus says SORRY...

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travis P

PostPosted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 9:55 pm    Author: travis P    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11

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Brick wrote:
Anyone else notice Mad Mark's bus says SORRY...


I thought it said SPAM ;)

It was spooky for the kids to have written the two figures down. At least Noel didn't blame Martin to what he did. He did tell him to enjoy the money. It's still good to see the level headed people continue to opiniate on the show (ahem Mr A).


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James1978

PostPosted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 9:59 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
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Oh dear me.

And I was stunned when it was Martin as well (or would have been for any male player to be honest) - I thought it was compulsory for it to be a gorgeous girl in her 20s and also has something going on with Noel....can't see Martin being Noel's type somehow! :)

(Jen looked well nice and I wanted it to be her today!!)

The deal actually wasn't as bad as some I've seen (Michelle last month comes to mind but she got away with it so it gets forgotten) and further back, Lance and Louise or others around that time a couple of weeks before the summer break. Oh god, Colleen as well. It just seemed that way because it was short of the magic 20k. I knew games would like this would happen in the wake of Tony's - I somehow wish that Martin hadn't have had to have been there for that!!

What I didn't get was at first how relieved he seemed to be walking away with 16k+ then seeing how anguished he got in the proveout, I honestly don;t think he'd have regretted it as much as that if he'd no-dealt 16k and ended up with £500 or whatever blues were left. I guess with a deal it just builds up more and more with every box in proveout that isn't a power 5 whereas Tony's collapse was pretty quick and drastic.

Still a good balance achieved by Noel for once, 18 - 24 months ago he was being too Wakeysit, earlier this year he was too much the other way, now I think he'd got the balance about right.

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 12:46 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11

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How weird that on Bonfire night we could've had real fireworks at the end of the game upon welcoming our first male quarter-millionaire (indeed, the graphic for such an event is a firework :P ). Unfortunately, it was not to be. Those predictions by the kids were spookily accurate, and how odd we should end up with a final 2 exactly fitting to that £102,000 offer. What with that and the banker predicting Pam's £35,000 win last week, maybe a mysterious force is taking over the dream factory!

Anyway... I can't say I was surprised that Martin dealt early, just a tad disappointed with 5 good reds and 3 blues. We've seen better deals, we've seen worse, the proveout was torturous, and still the £75,000 doesn't come to the table after 151 shows...

Sooner or later they must be able to match up the player to the board, but it was just a(nother) ghastly mismatch today, and given Tony's recent game crash, his deal was at least understandable.

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Woodvale

PostPosted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 2:08 am    Author: Woodvale    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11

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As the banker once said, " the wimps are the ones whoget the high amounts in their box and the braveplayers get the low amounts". That was very much the case today and seems to have been happening for so long now.


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dougal18

PostPosted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:10 am    Author: dougal18    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11

Joined: Wed Apr 30, 2008 8:51 am
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Mark wrote:
I'd be expecting a no deal here hopefully.


You hopefully expect a no deal. That makes a lot of sense. :roll:

Mark wrote:
Argh, I can see a mistake looming, or maybe not. .


How painful is that fence you are sitting on?

Mark wrote:
I would think the offer is now £102,000. If only he was thinking more of what was on the cards. Clearly he didn't .


Mark wrote:
He should have through more to what the kids wrote down. Silly man!
.

Like anyone would gamble money based on a drawing. :roll:

And worryingly (a) you appear to regard DOND as a game that you can appear clever on and (b) call someone silly with the benefit of hindsight.

At least you don't define greed in a way that is unique to this forum.

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wkd

PostPosted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:45 am    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11

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MisterAl wrote:
wkd wrote:
You could argue, I suppose, he was excessively desirous of acquiring £16k and allowed himself to be blinded to the potential for more.

He was greedy because "he was excessively desirous of acquiring £16,102"?! That argument supposes -- in the words of the dictionary definition -- that £16,102 is more than Martin needed or deserved. In which case, an even greater win would also have been more than Martin needed or deserved.

Are people suggesting that Martin should have carried on and aimed for less?!



If you look at my full post, you'll see that I think Martin was ruled by fear rather than greed but I was just offering an alternative view. Possible that someone's greed would prevent them from taking any opportunity or risk i.e. that excessive caution is a form of greed. Not sure where that fits with the dictionary definition I'll grant you.

I'm also not sure what your objection is to using 'weak' to describe a deal. I'm happy to use foolish, feeble, pathetic, contemptible or outlandish as alternatives but weak often seems entirely appropriate for those who accept a few thousand to deal on boards worth much more.

Not incidentally that I'm suggesting Martin's deal was as poor as that. There was more in the game in my view but we've seen a lot worse.


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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 11:22 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11

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Well I don't want to judge Martin and i can understand the reasoning behind his deal, but even without the benefit of hindsight it's a hard one to justify. Even with the bites into the power five it was an incredibly strong board and the odds were in his favour for at least one more round.

Despite what he said about his family i didn't see him as a targetist so the deal really caught me on the hop. i have to add though that even though i felt he'd made the wrong decision i did want him to annihalate the board and prove me wrong.

Still £16,102 may not seem much compared to what he could have won but it's still a considerable sum and i'm sure he'll put it to good use.

I do find it a little spookey about his kids 'predicting' the £250,000 box and £102,000 final offer though you could argue that most kids would imagine Daddy winning the big money. Still it's not the first time a 3rd party has made a prediction which has proved true and i doubt it will be the last.

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Tom

PostPosted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 12:04 pm    Author: Tom    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11

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Well, what else is there to be said...

I can understand Martin's reasons for dealing, he wanted the money for his kids which is a good reason. And as Noel said, if more parents were like that then the world would be a better place.


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MisterAl

PostPosted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 2:00 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11
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wkd wrote:
If you look at my full post, you'll see that I think Martin was ruled by fear rather than greed but I was just offering an alternative view. Possible that someone's greed would prevent them from taking any opportunity or risk i.e. that excessive caution is a form of greed. Not sure where that fits with the dictionary definition I'll grant you.

I understand that you, wkd, aren't necessarily of the opinion that Martin was greedy. But I don't think it was fear that caused Martin to accept the offer -- it was taken out of a desire to help and support the people who he loved. A bad round at that point would undoubtedly have seen the offer go down -- possibly by a significant amount given the unpredictability of the Banker these days. Taking the offer didn't demonstrate fear, it demonstrated that he considered where his priorities were and acted accordingly.

Quote:
I'm also not sure what your objection is to using 'weak' to describe a deal. I'm happy to use foolish, feeble, pathetic, contemptible or outlandish as alternatives but weak often seems entirely appropriate for those who accept a few thousand to deal on boards worth much more.

The word 'weak' is a pejorative and damning word. Not as damning as 'foolish', 'pathetic' or 'contemptible', I'll grant you, but damning nonetheless. Would anybody here be happy to have a decision they'd made described as 'weak'? I suspect not. Also, as I said above, having the guts to make a decision that is against what the majority of people in the room want cannot justifiably be described as 'weak'.

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box23

PostPosted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 2:33 pm    Author: box23    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11

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of course he's greedy.
But then, in the true definition of the word, every contestant on the show is greedy, suimply by refusing the first offer, they continue to proceed in the hope for more .

His game was ruined and his chances for more were blown, not because of greed, in any sense of the word, but by fear.
he simply lost his bottle and failed to see what the board was offering at the time. Just like the Indian lady a few weeks back,
her bottle went at what would be considered a strong position, but she simply failed to see the wood for the trees.
The show isn't about greed, its about courage.


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