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wkd

PostPosted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 3:04 pm    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11

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MisterAl wrote:
wkd wrote:
If you look at my full post, you'll see that I think Martin was ruled by fear rather than greed but I was just offering an alternative view. Possible that someone's greed would prevent them from taking any opportunity or risk i.e. that excessive caution is a form of greed. Not sure where that fits with the dictionary definition I'll grant you.

I understand that you, wkd, aren't necessarily of the opinion that Martin was greedy. But I don't think it was fear that caused Martin to accept the offer -- it was taken out of a desire to help and support the people who he loved. A bad round at that point would undoubtedly have seen the offer go down -- possibly by a significant amount given the unpredictability of the Banker these days. Taking the offer didn't demonstrate fear, it demonstrated that he considered where his priorities were and acted accordingly.

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I'm also not sure what your objection is to using 'weak' to describe a deal. I'm happy to use foolish, feeble, pathetic, contemptible or outlandish as alternatives but weak often seems entirely appropriate for those who accept a few thousand to deal on boards worth much more.

The word 'weak' is a pejorative and damning word. Not as damning as 'foolish', 'pathetic' or 'contemptible', I'll grant you, but damning nonetheless. Would anybody here be happy to have a decision they'd made described as 'weak'? I suspect not. Also, as I said above, having the guts to make a decision that is against what the majority of people in the room want cannot justifiably be described as 'weak'.


I don't really mean fear in its most negative sense. I think he was fearful of risking money that could be put to good use for his family, fearful of losing 16k that was there for taking, fearful of going away with a blue. In short, I think his view of the downside risk coloured sound judgment of a board which would encourage most people to go on. I'm not suggesting it was cowardice, just overly cautious. I'm firmly of the view that people who go on the show need a healthy desire to take a chance and 'go for it' with their one opportunity to win a huge amount rather than conservatively taking a few thousand at the first opportunity.

Not sure I agree that weak is really that perjorative. It's not personally abusive; just a verdict on a decision. Sometimes I caveat it by saying, 'fairly weak' or 'slightly weak'. Sometimes, I accentuate it by saying 'very weak'. Of course it passes judgement but I absolutely reserve the right to criticise a deal in any terms that sensible moderation allows. I think the attraction of the forum is healthy debate and diverse views of players decisions. They may not like the criticism but they choose to appear on a hugely popular television show and I think therefore accept that a degree of critical analysis of their decisions is going to follow. Obviously I don't have any personal connection with players or have much knowledge of their individual circumstances but I'm not going to pretend that a poor (or weak!) deal is fabulous just because someone has a great need for the money or beacuse a player might be offended. We could have a forum of unanimuosly offered platitudes such as, 'enjoy the money, Joe' and 'It was the right deal for Harry', but it will be a duller place. Taken to logical extreme then we would applaud thousand pound Michael for ignoring the opinion of every other person in the studio, and possibly the planet, in dealing when he did.


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wkd

PostPosted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 3:08 pm    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11

Joined: Thu Nov 22, 2007 6:04 pm
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Quote:
Also, as I said above, having the guts to make a decision that is against what the majority of people in the room want cannot justifiably be described as 'weak'.


I agree that moral courage is shown by resisting the views of others and I've always thought that anyone who took a first round deal should be nominated for a knighthood! I'm just not sure that following a formula of playing a few ronds and then bailing at the first moment that decency allows is really displaying that much courage.


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KP

PostPosted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 6:50 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11
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Good point that someone dealing at the first Acceptable Deal Point (8-box in a regular game, 5-box in a twist game) isn't brave at all. Although with the audience baying for Wakeyism he still had to show some courage to not be sucked in.

What is courage in this game after all? That's the question this game throws up.

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MisterAl

PostPosted: Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:02 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11
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wkd wrote:
I'm firmly of the view that people who go on the show need a healthy desire to take a chance and 'go for it' with their one opportunity to win a huge amount rather than conservatively taking a few thousand at the first opportunity.

But why are you firmly of that view? Why should people be excluded the opportunity to take part in such a unique occasion, just because they don't happen to have a predilection for risk? Isn't it more interesting to see a range of different people from different walks of life, different attitudes, different approaches to the game?

Personally, I'm firmly of the view that ordinary people should be allowed to decide for themselves what's best for them, based on their own attitudes and circumstances. It's not as though an early deal makes the programme any less interesting to watch; seeing how somebody reacts to a missed opportunity is just as fascinating as seeing somebody take a punt at the big money. Maybe more so, actually.

Quote:
Taken to logical extreme then we would applaud thousand pound Michael for ignoring the opinion of every other person in the studio, and possibly the planet, in dealing when he did.

Actually, I do applaud Michael for having the courage to do that. It wasn't what I'd have done, and it did seem rather illogical to me, but it certainly wasn't weak!

Anyway, I'm not saying that people shouldn't (respectfully) air their honest points of view; I hope it's evident that I'm quite happy to indulge in a respectful debate. I'm saying that -- whether deliberate or not -- words like 'greedy' and 'weak' are being used here pejoratively, and in a manner contrary to their actual meanings!

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wkd

PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 11:01 am    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11

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MisterAl wrote:
But why are you firmly of that view? Why should people be excluded the opportunity to take part in such a unique occasion, just because they don't happen to have a predilection for risk? Isn't it more interesting to see a range of different people from different walks of life, different attitudes, different approaches to the game?

Personally, I'm firmly of the view that ordinary people should be allowed to decide for themselves what's best for them, based on their own attitudes and circumstances. It's not as though an early deal makes the programme any less interesting to watch; seeing how somebody reacts to a missed opportunity is just as fascinating as seeing somebody take a punt at the big money. Maybe more so, actually.

Anyway, I'm not saying that people shouldn't (respectfully) air their honest points of view; I hope it's evident that I'm quite happy to indulge in a respectful debate. I'm saying that -- whether deliberate or not -- words like 'greedy' and 'weak' are being used here pejoratively, and in a manner contrary to their actual meanings!


I think if people are overly averse to risk they fail to make the most of the once in a lifetime opportunity. That's not to argue for insane risk taking, just for calculated gambles predicated on the attitude that the worst that can happen is a player goese away 1p richer than they arrived.

OK-I will endevaour to moderate my criticism, but just as players are entitiled to play the game in any way they choose, I'm entitled to express a view on their decisions.


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MisterAl

PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 10:25 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11
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wkd wrote:
I think if people are overly averse to risk they fail to make the most of the once in a lifetime opportunity. That's not to argue for insane risk taking, just for calculated gambles predicated on the attitude that the worst that can happen is a player goese away 1p richer than they arrived.

Well, turning down a five-figure offer only to crash to a blue win (for example) isn't exactly making the most of the opportunity either. The beauty of the game is that it's only with hindsight we can see whether or not people did actually make the most of their opportunity.

Quote:
OK-I will endevaour to moderate my criticism, but just as players are entitiled to play the game in any way they choose, I'm entitled to express a view on their decisions.

Absolutely!

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Nov 10, 2008 10:37 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11
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Cannot agree more with Mister Al, there. The decision-making is all about whether the opportunity is big enough that the risk of losing most or all of what you already have is outweighed by the potential for more. That's a personal decision, but if people understood the odds they'd make the right decisions for their circumstances most of the time.

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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wkd

PostPosted: Tue Nov 11, 2008 9:26 am    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: Martin 05/11

Joined: Thu Nov 22, 2007 6:04 pm
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KP wrote:
Cannot agree more with Mister Al, there. The decision-making is all about whether the opportunity is big enough that the risk of losing most or all of what you already have is outweighed by the potential for more. That's a personal decision, but if people understood the odds they'd make the right decisions for their circumstances most of the time.


Well that's true but our views are inevitably coloured by our own perspective on the value of money. Whilst yesterday's rejection of the bankers gamble has been near univerally condemned, if you had boxes of £1k and £250k and the player rejected the gamble so they could keep a previously accepted £25k then in gameplay the decision would be equally bad i.e rejecting huge odds in your favour. However there would be nowhere near the same criticism beacuse most people view the utility of 25k as too great to risk.

For that reason I wouldn't go too far in condemning Constance's deal for example. More in the game I thought, but if someone can't risk 30k well that's fine by me. Personally I'd wakey it to the end every game unless the offer went above mean or above twenty grand or so which would begin to stray into my 'too much risk' territory. Of course other people could have far lower sums that they feel 'can't be risked'; and they all seem to make their way onto Dond at the moment!

In Mister Al's example (rejecting a five figure amount and ending up with a blue) then if they can go away with no regrets having tried to play the board for what it's worth then I'd feel they have made the most of the opportunity, irrepective of what the final result brings.

Which is where I end up agreeing with KP - IF people understood the odds behind their decisions, well fair enough. It just seems that many players appear not to and just pray for proveout to vindicate a poor decision.


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