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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Sun Nov 02, 2008 9:34 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: Pam 02/11 Halloween week
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I know how you meant it - but I thought of that side of the argument as well - both sides are completely valid.

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James1978

PostPosted: Sun Nov 02, 2008 9:44 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: Pam 02/11 Halloween week

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Actually looking back at the offers, she turned down 55k when the mean was only 60k, and given the fact that 35k was enough to take her out on 100k/5k, she gambled on only a 1 in 3 chance of an 87k offer - and a 2 in 3 chance of it falling signifcantly (I reckon 75k/5k would have been mid-high 20s), so i don't think that was statistically a good decision. Dramatic though! :)

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jamesfish

PostPosted: Sun Nov 02, 2008 10:01 pm    Author: jamesfish    Post subject: Re: Pam 02/11 Halloween week

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I thought it was amazing how she got the big numbers to stay for so long, I knew Jen had the £250,000 though, even so well done on £35,000 and New York holiday pam.


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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Nov 02, 2008 10:33 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: Pam 02/11 Halloween week
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James1978 wrote:
Actually looking back at the offers, she turned down 55k when the mean was only 60k, and given the fact that 35k was enough to take her out on 100k/5k, she gambled on only a 1 in 3 chance of an 87k offer - and a 2 in 3 chance of it falling signifcantly (I reckon 75k/5k would have been mid-high 20s), so i don't think that was statistically a good decision. Dramatic though! :)


My thoughts exactly. There's always the viewer in me that loves the dramatic endings like today even though the gameplayer in me is shouting DEAL at the TV.

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2008 12:29 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: Pam 02/11 Halloween week
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Epic game. That much is certain.

If Endemol want Wakeyism then one-box rounds late in the game are clearly the way to do it on this week's evidence. People get seduced by the idea of 'just one more box' and then either they crash (as happened on Tuesday) or if they don't, cut and run at the clear-cut final decision (as happened today and Monday).

I think that one was the No Deal of someone getting carried away rather than anything else - especially with a superstitious player in such a strong situation with no blues to spook her. The 75k hit was a reality check and the final offer was influenced heavily by the prior No Deal.

I'd have taken the 55k myself and I'm not so sure I'd have got that far - although if I'd been offered a three-box guarantee of 55k I'd have played on for it... I'd have feared a three-box joke with just the one big number though.

And while I'm a staunch anti-Wakeyist, Wakeyism certainly provides great drama on strong boards - which is both the reason it's encouraged on the show and the reason it shouldn't be. Let the gamblers come naturally, be they superstitious types like today's or card sharks like Khanny, and they'll provide their own (often memorable) games and they'll speak for themselves. Encourage them, and you'll not only get too many for them to be memorable but you're also influencing the viewers in a potentially dangerous direction.

Although right now there's certainly not enough Wakeyism to make such games unmemorable... this game/week came at pretty much the right time. Hopefully we'll see a compromise this week, with more moderate players getting decent boards and Dealing on them late in the game after turning down several poor offers and one decent one.

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MisterAl

PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2008 2:11 am    Author: MisterAl    Post subject: Re: Pam 02/11 Halloween week
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James1978 wrote:
Actually looking back at the offers, she turned down 55k when the mean was only 60k, and given the fact that 35k was enough to take her out on 100k/5k, she gambled on only a 1 in 3 chance of an 87k offer - and a 2 in 3 chance of it falling signifcantly (I reckon 75k/5k would have been mid-high 20s), so i don't think that was statistically a good decision. Dramatic though! :)

I'm not sure I agree with that. Turning down the £55k was entirely justifiable on statistical grounds -- what your analysis ignores is the fact that at the time of that offer there was a 2 in 3 chance of there being more than £55k in her box. That's a heck of a good statistical reason to turn the offer down!

The things that would have been going through my head at that stage -- if I were still in live play -- would be whether I'd be happy to win 'only' £5k after having been offered £55k. If so, then it's a clear No Deal. If not though, would the potential two-box offer on a £100k/£5k or £75k/£5k final two be a large enough consolation prize? In other words, if I went for the Lance final two but didn't get it, would I be happy to bail out at two-box with a (lesser) amount of money that I'd still be satisfied with? If yes, then No Deal the £55k and hope for the £100k/£75k final two. If no, then take the £55k and run.

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collydolly

PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2008 10:46 am    Author: collydolly    Post subject: Re: Pam 02/11 Halloween week

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travis P wrote:
James1978 wrote:
I hate you Endemol for scheduling what sounds like the best game in yonks on the same time as the Brazilian Grand Prix. Completely missed this but at least it was worth it given the result!! :D


Blame Channel 4, not Endemol. As they recorded the show around May for a Saturday 1st November recording. C4 decided to move the shows to Sunday after these shows on the basis they want DoND to keep their Sunday audience share afloat.


We watched DoND and then turned over for the Grand Prix. So much excitement for a Sunday evening :D

Well done Pam and Lewis.

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2008 11:35 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: Pam 02/11 Halloween week
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A very reasonable argument from MisterAl, but I don't think I could get around the idea of this being a probable negative-expectation gamble unless I was prepared to lose 50k (as while the two-box offer was sure to exceed One Rock, it was sure to be low enough on a non-Lance finish that the mean of the two-box offers was below 55k, and that means it's an instant Deal unless you're playing for the box).

In the end I reckon that No Deal was simply explained by a line Howie Mandel sometimes uses on the US show: 'two huge amounts - one case to open'. Or box in this case but the principle holds. :)

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2008 11:52 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: Pam 02/11 Halloween week

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Forget game of the week or game of the month, that has to be one of the greatest games of all time.

I couldn't believe how lucky Pam was, and her total conviction in the wand was amazing. Skeptic that i am i was half hoping the system (if that's what you would call it) would be disproved and come crashing down around her ears but in retrospect i'm glad it wasn't. After the week he's had the Banker really needed to be bought down a peg or two and Pam was just the woman to do it.

Great game, well deserved victory,Well done Pam :smt023

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JamesC

PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2008 2:09 pm    Author: JamesC    Post subject: Re: Pam 02/11 Halloween week

Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2008 10:42 am
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I do agree with most people here in that Pam's game was one of the greatest deal or no deal games of all time simply because of its stangeness and how engaging it was. At first like many people here I'm sure, I was very skeptic when she said she could sense the box amounts using that wand because it still is A RANDOM GAME OF LUCK and that will never change but then when she kept eliminating the blues and low reds I knew she was onto a winner. Only after she mentioned the psychic who told her that she would leave the £100,000 to the end did I actually find myself believing she would keep it there till the end. That last decision - £5,000 or £100,000 was simply brilliant. An engrossing game and I'm guessing it's DONDs 3rd birthday show 2day (3rd Nov)?


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Big D

PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2008 6:37 pm    Author: Big D    Post subject: Re: Pam 02/11 Halloween week

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I found myself wondering later if it wasn't worth her while to try bluffing the banker, if she was so sure she had the 5k, I wonder if she might have been offered the swap if she'd said or even hinted that she thought it might be in the other box... :ponder:

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Saperogo

PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2008 8:11 pm    Author: Saperogo    Post subject: Re: Pam 02/11 Halloween week
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I think the other spooky thing about this show is that it happened during Halloween week - imagine if everyone was in normal clothes! I think then it would've felt more like a normal game rather than the spooky witchy game.

Congrats Pam on 35k! You played wondrously and satisfied my thirst for great gameplay after the absolutely horrid games we've had this week.


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Tom

PostPosted: Mon Nov 03, 2008 10:13 pm    Author: Tom    Post subject: Re: Pam 02/11 Halloween week

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Wow, that was certainly an amazing and epic game.

Decent win to end a so-so week of games. Great concept, just a lack of decent results.


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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Tue Nov 04, 2008 12:01 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: Pam 02/11 Halloween week

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Saperogo wrote:
I think the other spooky thing about this show is that it happened during Halloween week - imagine if everyone was in normal clothes! I think then it would've felt more like a normal game rather than the spooky witchy game.

Congrats Pam on 35k! You played wondrously and satisfied my thirst for great gameplay after the absolutely horrid games we've had this week.


I suspect once the producers learned that Pam was a witch they couldn't resist having her play in Halloween week. I'm only surprised they didn't select her for Halloween itself, though as a climax to the week's entertainment she proved the perfect choice

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wkd

PostPosted: Wed Nov 05, 2008 12:55 pm    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: Pam 02/11 Halloween week

Joined: Thu Nov 22, 2007 6:04 pm
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Knocking back fifty-five grand was downright irresponsible - but then I'm not a believer!


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