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killersbee

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:49 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: David 09/10
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I don't blame him for taking £26,000, it was just nearly good to turn down

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h2005

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:50 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: David 09/10
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I think we can almost guarantee that any hypothetical final offer here with £250k or £100k still in play will be inflated. Unless of course he ends up with the Dream Finish. :shock:

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KP

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:50 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: David 09/10
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Can't argue too much with that decision - professional musicians face notorious job instability, and that in turn probably made a No Deal of over twenty grand with a 30% disaster chance the wrong decision even in spite of having those two.

The offer would probably have dropped on 100k/blue, too - my old saw for finishes with three blues and two reds with a rough 2:1 ratio between them (75k/35k was the one I always used to focus it on) was to see it as a 40% chance of a significant raise, 30% chance of a collapse, and play on what you thought the 30% would be. In this case, a drop, meaning Deal - although that 40% could be very significant here (or maybe not...).

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Last edited by KP on Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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killersbee

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:51 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: David 09/10
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The biggie goes, but the £100K is still there :shock: :?

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kestral

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:51 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: David 09/10
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David gives his reasons for dealing there...

Proveout round

21 - £250,000 :D Gill

22 - 10p Ada

12 - £50 Whitey


Banker time with £100 and £100,000 remaining

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h2005

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:52 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: David 09/10
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The offer here shouldn't really be more than £26,000. I wonder if he'll try the banker's gamble here? Although David wouldn't take it...

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kestral

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:52 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: David 09/10
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Wow says Noel... He talks about how the £26,000 always works for the Banker...

Banker's offer:

Banker's Gamble

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KP

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:53 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: David 09/10
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I can't resist it, with the musician in the chair...

The Banker's familiar recurring motif makes an unexpected reappearance :)

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Last edited by KP on Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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killersbee

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:53 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: David 09/10
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Oh the banker's gamble!!! :shock:

I would say take it!!!

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h2005

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:53 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: David 09/10
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Haha, and it's the banker's gamble... my crystal ball is working well today. :roll:

£26,000 on this final 2 is a very generous offer (which this banker's gamble effectively is) so I think he should no deal the gamble.

Interesting to see that he's considering it though. :shock:

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kestral

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:54 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: David 09/10
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Flipping heck says David :P He then ponders over the 50/50 gamble he now has.

Noel again talks about the odds of David having a red as there have been 12 blues in a row so far, but counters with that it could also be 13...


David says

NO DEAL

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h2005

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:55 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: David 09/10
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Phew... that was a relief. It'd have been awful to see him crash to £100, even though they're all thinking £100k is due on the table because of the run of blues.

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killersbee

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:55 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: David 09/10
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OH YES!!! Enjoy £26,000, David! :D :D :D

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kestral

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:55 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: David 09/10
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Noel opens box 7 and reveals £100

Box 11 with Malc contains the £100,000

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KP

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:56 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: David 09/10
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kestral wrote:
Noel again talks about the odds of David having a red as there have been 12 blues in a row so far, but counters with that it could also be 13...


By the sounds of it Noel has been twisting David into thinking he has a red, but remembered to be neutral that time... without that neutrality, would David have dealt the gamble???

If so, it would have been self-inflicted catastrophe. Great result, the best game of this still-young month.

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Last edited by KP on Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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killersbee

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:56 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: David 09/10
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£100K in 11 yet again! :shock:

What is it with Box 11 and £100,000 going together? :ponder:

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Skyline: "You're still winging about a game six hours after it airs, and it's not even your money!"
H2005: "Anyone can quote anything from here, so long as kestral and I get £4,523.49 each for every word that's quoted."


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killersbee

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:57 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: David 09/10
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They were playing Violins to the theme tune at the end! :lol:

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H2005: "Anyone can quote anything from here, so long as kestral and I get £4,523.49 each for every word that's quoted."


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greeny

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:57 pm    Author: greeny    Post subject: Re: David 09/10

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killersbee wrote:
£100K in 11 yet again! :shock:

What is it with Box 11 and £100,000 going together? :ponder:


Sorry to disappoint you but this is the first time 11 has had the 100k since Bez's game, though Maria and Betty both won 100k with box 11.


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Skyline

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:58 pm    Author: Skyline    Post subject: Re: David 09/10
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Epic Win? I think so!

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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:58 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: David 09/10

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I enjoyed that game, funnily enough. Got exciting seeing those 2 at squash-down, but he got £26,000. Well done to him.

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