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kestral

PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 5:40 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: Shirl 14/09
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Noel opens box 14 and reveals £50,000


Box 7 with Chris contains the £50

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NoelsFan

PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 5:40 pm    Author: NoelsFan    Post subject: Re: Shirl 14/09
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Oh well.

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jonny

PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 5:41 pm    Author: jonny    Post subject: Re: Shirl 14/09
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Good one Shirl! A bit weird watching you play when I was there for your opening few games... :shock:

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cookie_monster

PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 5:41 pm    Author: cookie_monster    Post subject: Re: Shirl 14/09
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£50,000! Ack. Nicola was right! I don't blame her for dealing though, I would've too, with the current run of luck. It looks like it has turned for the better though!

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killersbee

PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 5:41 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: Shirl 14/09
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A power five has been squandered as SrWilson would say :(

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johnr

PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 5:41 pm    Author: johnr    Post subject: Re: Shirl 14/09

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Hmm...Noel is having a lot of days off recently :lol:


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Skyline

PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 5:47 pm    Author: Skyline    Post subject: Re: Shirl 14/09
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Sure she quandered £50,000, but her deal was much better than Mike's terribly spineless "epic-fail" deal a couple of weeks ago. And why is Mike on the the official site news and Jay isn't? :shock: :shock: :smt019

Just £9,259 to bring the total winnings to £100,000 :)

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Michael DeVere

PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 5:57 pm    Author: Michael DeVere    Post subject: Re: Shirl 14/09

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A decent enough show with a fairly good result, even though £50,000 was in the box it would of been a big gamble when up against a blue.

Shirl did confuse me a bit with her system at first as well as I couldn't really hear Shirl that well when she first explained it.


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h2005

PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 6:04 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: Shirl 14/09
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Today's show was another one that I enjoyed a lot, with funny banter involving Shirl's system and other stuff. That's about 5 in a row now that have really captured me - so this is by far my favourite week of Season 4 so far. The games haven't been brilliant but they haven't been too disastrous either, and Jay's £20k OPW and Shirl's £13k win were both very good by recent standards!

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alex xxx

PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 6:15 pm    Author: alex xxx    Post subject: Re: Shirl 14/09

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h2005 wrote:
She seemed to think more about the £5,000 than the £15,000... could just be editing though.

:shock: :shock: :shock: That decision took her nearly 20 minutes to come to!!!!! did they leave in what mark said????

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Brick

PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 6:35 pm    Author: Brick    Post subject: Re: Shirl 14/09
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Funnily enough after watching Jay's game earlier today I thought it wouldn't surprise me at all if a power 5 amount came to the table - and sure enough it did!

Sure it was a big win blown but I get the impression Shirl turned down plenty worse offers and with the run we've had, it's near-impossible to rely on what's in your box with a finish like that, so we shouldn't begrudge her deal really.

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Last edited by Brick on Mon Sep 15, 2008 8:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Goldeneye

PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 10:40 pm    Author: Goldeneye    Post subject: Re: Shirl 14/09

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£15,000 on £50/£50,000 is reasonably generous. That was exactly the same offer that £50,000 Hilary got back on April 2006, but her final two was £5/£50,000.

I think this is only the third time that Box 14 has brought a Power Five to the table (the other two were Alex and Brian).

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James1978

PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 10:55 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: Shirl 14/09

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Can't blame anyone for taking a deal worth 30% of the "all" on all-or-peanuts final pair. You have to be very lucky to miss the big money from 5-box, deal, then not have it at the table. I wondered where that offer had come from actually, I was expecting about 10k given that she'd struggled to come to a decision at 5-box, and was generally a lot more than the recent 2-box offers like Stuart's and Jay's. All the games in Season 4 that have produced dealable offers have had big money on the table.....god, I'm starting to sound like KP. :)

I beliuev Tina from halloween week also had box 14 containing 100k thought she would have swapped it away! :)

Anyway, a decent show overall with some interesting offers and decisions (the 2k at 8-box was shocking though!) and some entertaining banter and a funny system which I totally lost track of!

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h2005

PostPosted: Sun Sep 14, 2008 11:03 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: Shirl 14/09
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Seeing as the stats for today's game weren't posted during the show, here they are (thanks to Tom22's wonderful spreadsheet ;) :P):

Stats after Round 1
Offer: £9,000
Mean: £28,841.86
Offer (%): 31.20%
Fair Deal: £11,335.02
Cash left on board: £490,311.60
Volatility: 1.04
Board balance: 16

Board
10p
50p
£1

£10
£50


£500
£750

£1,000
£3,000
£5,000
£10,000
£15,000
£20,000
£35,000
£50,000

£100,000
£250,000

Guide to Stats



Stats after Round 2
Offer: £4,500
Mean: £17,093.68
Offer (%): 26.33%
Fair Deal: £8,332.87
Cash left on board: £239,311.50
Volatility: 0.72
Board balance: 14

Board
50p
£1

£10
£50


£500
£750


£3,000
£5,000
£10,000
£15,000
£20,000
£35,000
£50,000

£100,000

Guide to Stats


Stats after Round 2 again
Offer: £6,000
Mean: £17,093.68
Offer (%): 35.10%
Fair Deal: £8,332.87
Cash left on board: £239,311.50
Volatility: 0.72
Board balance: 14



Stats after Round 3
Offer: £8,500
Mean: £20,982.86
Offer (%): 40.51%
Fair Deal: £10,555.50
Cash left on board: £230,811.50
Volatility: 0.76
Board balance: 11

Board
50p
£1

£10
£50



£750




£10,000
£15,000
£20,000
£35,000
£50,000

£100,000

Guide to Stats



Stats after Round 4
Offer: £2,000
Mean: £10,726.44
Offer (%): 18.65%
Fair Deal: £4,336.70
Cash left on board: £85,811.50
Volatility: 1.40
Board balance: -10

Board
50p
£1

£10
£50



£750





£15,000
£20,000

£50,000

Guide to Stats



Stats after Round 5
Offer: £5,000
Mean: £13,012.20
Offer (%): 38.43%
Fair Deal: £5,106.95
Cash left on board: £65,061.00
Volatility: 3.32
Board balance: -6

Board
£1
£10
£50

£15,000
£50,000

Guide to Stats



Stats after Round 6
Offer: £15,000
Mean: £25,025.00
Offer (%): 59.94%
Fair Deal: £13,303.07
Cash left on board: £50,050.00
Volatility: 1000.00
Board balance: 3

Board
£50

£50,000

Guide to Stats

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 10:22 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: Shirl 14/09
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Five grand was a big decision - stingy but with a 30% chance of disaster and a 60% chance of what looked set to be a stingy two-box offer. Turned out otherwise and the £15k at two-box proved to be a reasonable bail-out point (I'd have gone there too).

Good to see some interesting decisions (eventually!) and whatever was in the box, I thought she made the right call at each point.

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Tom

PostPosted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 10:34 am    Author: Tom    Post subject: Re: Shirl 14/09

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Another decent game, making it two very good shows in a row.

I liked Shirl, she was a decent character and all the malarkey with the system was quite entertaining.

I have no problem with her dealing when she did. Perfectly reasonable. Just a shame the £50,000 was in the box.

[And so we enter the last few shows of DOND for a while where I'll be seeing them on Channel 4 at 4.15..thank goodness for 4OD.]


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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 10:56 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: Shirl 14/09

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Good game, Shirl was quite a charector, and it wasn't a bad system or at least it would have been if she'd been better able to keep track of it herself (surely it would have made better sense to count the boxes not the players especially in the latter stages of the game)

Perfectly good deal at two box, I think the only way i would have said no deal at that stage would have been on an all red finish. The £50 was just too much of a drop down. shame she missed out on the £50k but much better than the alternative.

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Sep 15, 2008 11:35 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: Shirl 14/09
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Moxx of Balhoom wrote:
Perfectly good deal at two box, I think the only way i would have said no deal at that stage would have been on an all red finish. The £50 was just too much of a drop down. shame she missed out on the £50k but much better than the alternative.


Agreed. I think £15k is bang on for a £1k/£50k final two; £3k/£50k and I'd turn it down, £750/£50k and I probably wouldn't.

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daniel4389

PostPosted: Mon Sep 22, 2008 1:12 pm    Author: daniel4389    Post subject: Re: Shirl 14/09

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I realise I'm over a week behind everyone else (I've been on holiday and had a bit of a DOND catching-up marathon over the weekend)....but what would have happened if the pilgrims had cheered for the Banker to die at the start?

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