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StatsMan

PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 11:48 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject:

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
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Not much more to add (well, having said that...), that was indeed an absolutely appalling deal given the board averaging five times the offer he took, life-changing amounts of £50k and £250k still sitting there, and good odds of hitting the low values in the next round. Surely most player's objective when they go on the show is to at least try to get the £250k or a power 5 win. The latest crop of contestants seem to have a distinct lack of ambition; anything low five-figure (or lower as today), and as long as they're past 11-box, most of them seem to take it, some without any consideration of the board and most without an extensive knowledge of mathematics, shall we say - or at least that's how it appears.

To be honest, even if i'd turned down that offer (which I would), and ended up with that result, I'd have been happy with £770 (i'd have taken that because (a) it was above the mean and (b) there's not enough difference between the values utility-wise to make going for the £1k worth it). I'd have played the odds, and been unlucky, but at least I'd have gone for it. In fact, I'd much preferred he'd have taken the offer at 14-box or 11-box, if his true preference was to be a targetist. He'd have been a couple of grand better off, and not wasted the next 20 minutes with an utterly pointless piece of TV. I don't mind caution in certain circumstances, but that was ultra-cautious. Pathetic. Dull or No Dull? Dull.

Ok, so I am a bit annoyed, as is happening on an increasingly more frequent basis with this show now, but it must be a bad game when the proveout goes well and there is so much (justified) negativity on this forum. And how he had the audacity to claim he beat the banker, it was a technical win which everyone conveniently forgot about, and it's quite probable you'll 'beat the banker' dealing low/mid-red sum with 6 values below it, it's the odds of the next round you are playing! Noel used the word 'smart' which nearly led to me throwing a large object at the television!

Don't get me wrong, I love the show (hell, I've created a whole site on it), and usually I'm quite fair and respectful of player's decisions, but I draw the line here. Please, for everyone's sanity, a well-played, mega money win tomorrow!

(Blimey, what a rant that was!)

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Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


Last edited by StatsMan on Tue Apr 29, 2008 11:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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James1978

PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 11:49 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject:

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
Location: Darlington, NE England
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I know it was a low offer he took but really, would anyone have been much happier if he'd gone on and won £500 or £770 by dealing at 2-box or £1,000 by swapping?

Everyone would have just been complaining that it was another forced blue/honorary blue win by playing to the end through having to no-deal poor offers, or saying "Unlucky Steve, you went for it but at least (£500, £770 or 1k) is still a usable sum, well played"!!

Believe me, I'm desperate to see a power 5 win as much as all the Wakeyists, but it was never available today so it doesn't bother me.

But if it doesn't happen tomorrow we'll have had a complete month without one!! :shock:

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"22 identical sealed boxes, and no questions except one.....do a poor deal for an easy few thousand or be brave and win a blue!"


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StatsMan

PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 12:12 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject:

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
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Ok, so 'happy' isn't the right word there. But I'd have much preferred to have gone on than opted out, as many would have done. Ok, so I wouldn't have been happy with £770, but I'd have been less happy taking £7,700 in that situation out of principle because the £250k was still there. What I'm trying to emphasise is dealing there was IMO pointless and weak. The 'happy' is a flippant remark to the dreadful deal. If you're not going to take at least a moderate risk (and, admittedly, be prepared for the consequences if it all goes wrong), there's not much point in playing a game where risk is a big factor - at least, if you want to make your show entertaining, there isn't. You can't legislate for being unlucky, but i'd play the odds most of the time, and if it all went wrong, i'd be genuinely content that at least i took an acceptable gamble rather than a reckless one (or not one at all). You can't... well, I can't play the game expecting to be unlucky or that a 10.7% chance is going to hit. That's what Steve did today, and contestants have done other days, which is why the banker is so on top at the moment... (and will continue to be)

Remember that contestant's relative who said "It's only a game"...

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Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


Last edited by StatsMan on Wed Apr 30, 2008 12:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

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alexandercbrown

PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 12:17 am    Author: alexandercbrown    Post subject:

Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 8:30 pm
Location: edinburgh
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I couldn't see the point in dealing there either - 15K would be an interesting decision there - but being derisory you'd just plough on like Daniel said and in response to James - I would have almost been happier if he had gone on.

Is this rock bottom for the show? :?


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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 12:18 am    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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I think I'd have liked to see him no deal to be honest... if only to prove to me that there are some players left who do actually read the board rather than just deal their target. :roll:

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James1978

PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 12:25 am    Author: James1978    Post subject:

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
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Ok fair enough - I just thought myself if he'd gone on I would have initially been happy he recognised how poor the offer was, then the round from 8 to 5 would have been exciting then deflating after the 250k went, then I'd have probably just been bored from 5-box on.

I think the upcoming players will have to be lucky and have a large value in their box becuase I see the offers getting even lower after this, to the point where there'll be no offers worth taking at all!!

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"22 identical sealed boxes, and no questions except one.....do a poor deal for an easy few thousand or be brave and win a blue!"


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 12:29 am    Author: KP    Post subject:
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James1978 wrote:
I guess that was just the polar opposite of all the early-07 players no-dealing massive offers and ending up winning life-changing money.


Very, very good point. And goodness, those games frustrated me. But we probably need one or two of those now - and we probably needed a game like this last January...

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Michael DeVere

PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 12:41 am    Author: Michael DeVere    Post subject:

Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2006 6:46 pm
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I didn't think the show was that bad, but having said that I do have to agree with the majority about the deal.

To be honest I wasn't expecting a deal there and was rather surprised when he did and admittedly a bit disapointed as a viewer. The show seemed to go quite quick and that's kind of why I though he'd no deal at that point.

However, even if Steve had gone on then he wouldn't of actually got any more money and so it wasn't such a bad move after all (with hindsight and a bit of luck) and we didn't miss out on seeing a mega money win, as it never was going to be a mega money game.


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Rob

PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 12:58 am    Author: Rob    Post subject:

Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2007 7:33 pm
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SrWilson wrote:
Cookie you do suck up up and daniel 50p avatar whatever yer name is , the reason everyone is becoming like me and the other no dealers is they are *beep* sick of all the stupid caution.
I am just sorry the 250k was not in Steves box today, might have made reality hit home to the people on the wings that the MONEY IS THERE if you just play the game instead of selfishly bottling it at a derisory sum with no consideration for the game at all.



I'm sorry but you are just full of utter crap.

What was that you said earlier? It would teach him a lesson if the 250k was in his box? How would it? Is he coming back to do it again? No. Is he going to have the oppertunity to be given Seven grand just like that? Unlikely.

It's about time people stopped yelling at people they don't even know and just watch the show for what it is. An entertainement show. Fine, it would have been more exciting if he'd said No Deal...for about thirty seconds when it all would have gone horribly wrong.
The main joy of the show is the different characters that appear on the show - some of them are early dealers, and some are prepared to go through to the end. One thing you should remember is that 98% of these contestants don't apply for the thought of entertaining the likes of you. They go on to win some money for themselves.
In short, Grow up.
It's not just you SirWilson, but you are probably the most agressive.

Nice one Steve.


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alexandercbrown

PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 1:16 am    Author: alexandercbrown    Post subject:

Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 8:30 pm
Location: edinburgh
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There has been no variety though - only cautious deals and trainwrecks! :?

Due to the boxes/offers/players/payout this month has been awful. god knows what tomorrow has in store?! Will lower offers get dealt now?!


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Muinimula

PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 2:11 am    Author: Muinimula    Post subject:
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SrWilson wrote:
I am just sorry the 250k was not in Steves box today, might have made reality hit home to the people on the wings that the MONEY IS THERE if you just play the game instead of selfishly bottling it at a derisory sum with no consideration for the game at all.


While I agree that the show is in a low patch at the moment (low wins, bad deals and trainwrecks), you can't just say "the MONEY IS THERE if you just play the game" because that isn't true. If you have a low value in your box, you could play the game as well as you like, and you might hit all the high values in the first couple of rounds.

The money is there if you read the board, play the game, have some respect from the Banker, and have some luck on your side. At the moment, the players seem to only manage one of these at a time.


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betasub

PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 7:07 am    Author: betasub    Post subject:

Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 5:09 pm
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Muinimula wrote:
The money is there if you read the board, play the game, have some respect from the Banker, and have some luck on your side. At the moment, the players seem to only manage one of these at a time.


Agreed. We really need a Lucky Jim - and if the Banker believes they are lucky, they'll get the respect and offers to match.

So we watch and wait...


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 8:39 am    Author: KP    Post subject:
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Muinimula wrote:
The money is there if you read the board, play the game, have some respect from the Banker, and have some luck on your side. At the moment, the players seem to only manage one of these at a time.


I would correct that and say that you don't need all of them at once. Reading the board is nearly always a must, although looking at today's game apparently not. 'Playing the game' in true Noel Wakefield fashion works if and only if there's 'luck on your side', while Laura won the quarter-million precisely because she didn't have the Banker's respect.

But yes, we've hardly had any games where the board's been matched up to the player. Ironically, this is actually one of them...

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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dougal18

PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 9:10 am    Author: dougal18    Post subject:

Joined: Wed Apr 30, 2008 8:51 am
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basicasic wrote:

When you pay for this forum you can tell me what I can and can't write bothered not.


So the people that pay for you to have the privilege of posting vile abuse on an almost daily basis can tell you what to post? What an excellent idea!

Steve did well to get £7,700. No Dealing and finding the £250,000 would have forced him into an all or absolute rubbish situation. Which is no compensation for 2 weeks of anybody's time and "playing the game" a la Diddy.


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basicasic

PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 10:12 am    Author: basicasic    Post subject:
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It makes me laugh how the contestants, having made a shocker of a deal, dance about, whoop and cheer everytime a large red is revealed during proveout. They know they've chickened out and are desperate to save their sorry ar*es and not to look the completely humiliated chumps they are.

If they were that comfortable and at ease with their deal they shouldn't be worried about whats in the remaining boxes and should be relaxed whatever is revealed.

Dealing £7700 when £250k and the £50k are still on the board is the worst deal ever and no amount of contestant sycophants on here will persuade me otherwise.

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 10:24 am    Author: KP    Post subject:
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On a board like that, disaster is never far away. Steve, clearly, was not in the slightest bit comfortable with that prospect, and Dealt. I'd have felt able to risk going away with nothing given what was left, and won 90% less in the end (although £15k on that configuration and I'm gone, because now the disaster situation feels so much worse and the reward smaller in relative terms).

It's one of the worst Deals ever. It's not even close to topping Michael, though. It's probably the worst Deal ever to be the right decision, except actually 14-box was the right decision (and for someone prepared to take that eight-box offer, probably the right decision for him too).

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I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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basicasic

PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 10:39 am    Author: basicasic    Post subject:
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I honestly think the Banker/producers etc presented £7700 on that board as a forcing offer in an attempt to get him to go on and give us potentially an exciting finish to the game. Which with £250k and £50k still up there it could have been.

I think they were as shocked as we were when he dealt.

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dougal18

PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 11:07 am    Author: dougal18    Post subject:

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basicasic wrote:
It makes me laugh how the contestants, having made a shocker of a deal


In your opinion.

basicasic wrote:

, dance about, whoop and cheer everytime a large red is revealed during proveout.


That's what they want to see after dealing.

basicasic wrote:

They know


You can't know what they know.

basicasic wrote:

they've chickened out


No one can chicken out in a game that doesn't begin to test bravery.

basicasic wrote:

and are desperate to save their sorry ar*es and not to look the completely humiliated chumps they are.


No one can look like a chump in a game that doesn't test IQ.

basicasic wrote:

Dealing £7700 when £250k and the £50k are still on the board is the worst deal ever and no amount of contestant sycophants on here will persuade me otherwise.


Not even close.


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StatsMan

PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 11:18 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject:

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I think Beryl's deal was worse, taking £3,100 with the £250k still on the board at 11-box, although Michael's deal probably beats this for sheer stupidity. That just made no sense at all, especially as he had high blues anyway.

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Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


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daniel4389

PostPosted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 11:22 am    Author: daniel4389    Post subject:

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At least Beryl took her highest offer up to that point, so you could assume she was just basing her deal purely on the amount of money involved...with Michael and Steve you just think "If the money means *that* much to you then why didn't you go earlier when you could have had more?"

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