No, Matty did a PJ but £25,000 better, effectively. How is swapping away £50,000 worse than swapping away £75,000?

And if I'm honest, I laugh in the face of Matty for accepting the swap, because his game just goes to show you should NEVER swap. And why did he even receive the offer at all?

Most painful game of 2008? Not by a long way. We're only in March, and there will no doubt be more "painful" games than this.

Like I always say, NEVER SWAP, £35k would've been over the average and actually never happened anyway and Matty, quite frankly serves you right for swapping.


Also, what's all this about an "expected" £25k? Was he not offered £20,000?

I believe £25,000 is the calculated value of the 1 in 3 lottery. As £35,000 was up for grabs on a 1 in 3 chance, plus the guaranteed £20,000, the overall value of the whole offer is £25,000... I think.

Yes - 1/3 chance of £35k, 2/3 chance of £20k, gives an average or expected value of £25k.

I didn't see the game, and from what I've read on here, I'm glad.

You're right h2005. With the eggs, though, it's less attractive than a real offer of £25,000, but that's what it's worth on average.

My two cents (pence?), that was a painful game to watch, memorable for all the wrong reasons. I can only imagine what it must have felt like in the same room at the time.

I felt awkward before the collapse to see Matty jumping around carefree, dismissing a good 2nd round offer and fair 3rd round one, though with that board and opportunity, I can't blame him. The game turning with how much he personally invested emotionally... horrible.

Rather than dismiss it as Noel does, saying it's only one game, I took the time to check the stats on how likely it was to happen.

Matty's game:
11 to 8 box, 3rd worst possible round out of 165 combinations.
8 to 5 box, taking 3 reds out was 4/56.
11 to 5 box, taking 6 reds out was 7/462.

With the eggs, missed an 8/15 chance of receiving another offer with 35k in play after 5 box.
(1/3 good egg * 4/5 chance of keeping 35k, + 2/3 bad egg * 2/5 chance of keeping 35k)

11 box to 2 box, having worst 2 finish was 1/55.
11 to 4 box, all 4 blues kept was 1/330.
All 4 blues kept from 11 to 4, and worst 2 finish: 1/1980.

No wonder the players are scared, after seeing that.

Thabks for the stats, crazyeddie and Lewis

hi everyone.. Hayley here.. (played new years eve) i haven't been around for a while.. gone a bit quiet however i had to come on and say that this game was ssssooooooooo funny!! I was in stitches.. not cos he won 1p but because of his reactions and how Noel really didn't know what to say... when matty said 'Noel can we call a break' and noel said 'umm no we can't' it was just so funny.

Sorry Matty i'm sure you are a lovely man if you're reading this, but thanks for making me laugh xx

That's so cruel, but I can't disagree with you, Hayley!

ha ha ha good on ya crazy chair (sorry matty!!)