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h2005

PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 7:55 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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The banker could've easily offered a consolation of about £2,000 at 5-box stage, bearing in mind the mean was over £3,000. :(

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alex1333

PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 7:56 pm    Author: alex1333    Post subject:

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at least there is some consolation

todays game was 10x better than yesterdays for tension espec in todays 5th round


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kestral

PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 7:56 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject:
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Noel opens box 14 and reveals £100 :(

Box 11 contains the £750

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Tugger

PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 7:56 pm    Author: Tugger    Post subject:

Joined: Sun Apr 09, 2006 4:42 pm
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He said Sunday :?


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alex1333

PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 7:57 pm    Author: alex1333    Post subject:

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yeh they were recorded before endemol decided to put it on saterday


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redrum666

PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 7:57 pm    Author: redrum666    Post subject:
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basicasic wrote:
h2005 wrote:
kestral wrote:
Noel thinks that Gillian has made her mind up already, and so runs around for the sweep :lol:


He looked like a galloping horse!! :shock:


redrum!


It wasn't me, I swear! :P

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 7:59 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject:
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Bad luck, Gillian. At least it wasn't that 1p! :)

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basicasic

PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 8:02 pm    Author: basicasic    Post subject:
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What a disappointment. Whilst the board was good the offers were very generous and I thought she would get a good payout today with the banker insuch a good mood. But its amazing how a game that looks so strong at one point can collapse so dramatically.

Still she gave it a go and the boxes were just not with her today.

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crazyeddie

PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 8:49 pm    Author: crazyeddie    Post subject:
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Just caught the last 15 minutes of the show. That was a hard fall for Gillian. Here come the stats.

Boxes: 17 ( 0.01 0.50 1 5 10 50 100 500 750 1,000 3,000 15,000 20,000 35,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 )
Offer: 10,400 ( 59% )
Average: 17,672
Balance: 123 to 35,221
2-box average: 38% of time above current, 45% of time above offer.

If anyone wanted to have minimised risk in their game, and have instant money, then this would be the offer to deal. Nearly 60% of the average already!

You could feign strength on the wings, and secure a nice amount. Even with the balance figures above, in which you consider that this offer is the last one, is dealable to some.

Note that the £100 here, is amount 7 of 17 on the board. Consider this when going all the way.


Boxes: 11 ( 0.01 5 10 100 750 1,000 15,000 20,000 35,000 50,000 75,000 )
Offer: 12,500 ( 70% )
Average: 17,897
Balance: 248 to 35,545
2-box average: 40% of time above current, 51% of time above offer.

Another good offer. The board's strengthened, so a no deal is fine here. This reminds me of when many good offers were made in the past, and all were refused.


Boxes: 8 ( 0.01 10 100 750 15,000 20,000 35,000 50,000 )
Offer: 11,500 ( 76% )
Average: 15,108
Balance: 215 to 30,000
2-box average: 50% of time above current, 50% of time above offer.

The moment of truth. More strengthening, though the average is less. The offer is very dealable, and for some, I would recommend it. Myself, I would no deal. That said, extracting money from this board if you dealt later, would be like drawing blood from a stone.

Though things went wrong after this, the original decision was sound. The 4/56 chance of losing 3 of the top 4, and 1/56 3 of the top 3, was unfortunate. Also, the odds of losing all 4 of the top 4 by 2-box from 8-box, is 6/28. Again, worth considering in your game.

And Noel said what I had been thinking before, the "Mummies" are "cursed" (though I would call them "coincidentally unlucky".)

Good play Gillian, though shame it wasn't more. :(


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alexandercbrown

PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 8:51 pm    Author: alexandercbrown    Post subject:

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I think either decision at 8 box was acceptable, even if things went a bit wrong you'd expect, say a 5K get out or something. that was bad luck. :(


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James1978

PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 8:57 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject:

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All I can say I thought the offers were very well-pitched today, the third and fourth offers really would have had me in a quandary - on one hand at the £11,500, either decision was completely justifiable becuase on one hand if the very best you can do is win 4 times what you've been offered, you can't miss out on an absolute fortune, on the other hand, I'd struggle to be moved with four boxes above the offer, plus the stability factor!

To hit the 1 in 56 chance was horrendous luck, and was pleased she took it really well and the fact that she's turned down fair offers eut had been perfectly justifiable t do so didn't bother me too much.

I even thought the first offer was attractive for a 250k-less board as well I have to say, if she'd had a second round hitting 3 boxes worth 3k or less, the banker would have to have gone up to an amount I would have probably considered walking money on a board without the biggie!

The woman who revealed the £250k on the other hand (Maria?) - I can;t believe she was crying her eyes out about it that early in the game - I know Gillian seemed to be really popular, but when all the other reds were still there except 5k, it was a bit over the top? It's totally understandable on a final three like 1p Trevor's when you pull out the biggie, but in the first round? :shock:

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 9:10 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject:
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Maria's reaction today after revealing the £250,000 - haven't seen waterworks that early in a game since the days of Kerry!

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trustno1

PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 9:10 pm    Author: trustno1    Post subject:

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Big-Davey wrote:
Wouldn't blame ya - what with England beating Australia in the World Cup!


ARGH :!:


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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 9:12 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject:
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*hands trustno1 a box of tissues* :lol:

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Billy

PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 9:30 pm    Author: Billy    Post subject:
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62 games without a third offer deal, five away from being a new record ( beating Lynsey-Bob). 12 games without anyone dealing before the final five, again, five away from being a new record (beating Robert-John M).

And the 6th has taken such a huge U-turn in Season 3. For Season 1 and 2 it had an unbroken win of every single contestant winning a red on it, the only day out of all of them to have that honour...and the two who have played it this season have both won blues! Really bad luck game for Gillian, she was one of my favourites and her game just slowly fell apart, the block looking briefly strong but then evaporating.

So a sad end to a very memorable week, let's hopefully start the next one with a big win!

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"The Banker"

PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 10:30 pm    Author: "The Banker"    Post subject:

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That was really unlucky for Gillian to take out the top three amounts remaining on the board in round five like that. The Banker could have at least boosted the £950 offer up to £1,000 just to round it off, and make it into 4 figures so it looked slightly better.

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KP

PostPosted: Sat Oct 06, 2007 11:05 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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That has to be one of the greatest collapses of a stable board in history. So much for assuming you could slip out with a four-figure consolation if it went wrong, which might have sent me on to the end today!!

That said, if she was the kind of player who wasn't going to take any offer whatsoever, I can't find any sympathy for her. That's not playing the game, whatever the host might insist; that's turning the game into a 45-minute drawn-out reveal of what's in the box. Though I qualify that by saying that it wasn't unreasonable to turn down her offer set - just that from what she said, she could quite easily have received offers almost no sensible person would reject, and rejected them.

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SrWilson

PostPosted: Sun Oct 07, 2007 12:20 am    Author: SrWilson    Post subject:
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Oh man that was rotton luck today I felt sorry for Gillian she played the game perfectly and was right to turn down those offers i'm just dissapointed for her the boxes did not fall the right way.

At least she took it in good spirit so admire her for that.

Bad luck Gillian but hey at least you came out with £100 more than you had when you arrived and you can buy something nice with that. :-D

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johnr

PostPosted: Sun Oct 07, 2007 1:38 am    Author: johnr    Post subject:

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I'm just sat here and thinking 'There was a Deal Or No Deal today?'

I watched it but have to remind myself I saw it! Very bad timeslot this Saturday malarky, I remember the weekday games fine. And usually I would remember a trainwreck for weeks but not tonight...

P.S. Really thought it was going to be Jean tonight!


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Lucky me

PostPosted: Sun Oct 07, 2007 12:45 pm    Author: Lucky me    Post subject:
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:( Bad luck for Gillian, a lovely lady :( Brenda.

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