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KP

PostPosted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 10:01 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 08/01 H
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James1978 wrote:
Just thought, if she'd dealt at 5-box she could have won the same as.....h. :)


At the same stage too!

Was comparing the two offers myself actually - he had £20k and £35k and to me that was a definite Deal for anyone prepared to bail out for a four-figure amount, she had £10k and £75k and I don't think that's all that much better but I'd be far more tempted to gamble! Must be because the mean's so much higher, but then...

H2005
10% £27k
30% £10k
30% £5k*
30% blue
EV AT TWO-BOX £7,200

* Using the actual proveout offer, and making the £35k/blue finish a bit more generous - in reality I'd have expected £9k and a stick for a £35k/blue and £20k/blue finish respectively!

H2010
10% £35k
30% £21k
30% £3k
30% blue
EV AT TWO-BOX £10,700

Crikey that's more than I thought! Maybe I'm overestimating what the £75k/blue finish would be, but then again the first week of 2010 showed that Endemol are definitely in the mood to induce a gamble at the moment and a big two-box offer (maybe even more than £21k on that finish!) would have been likely...

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Simon F

PostPosted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 10:32 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 08/01 H
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Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
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5 offers that weren't anywhere near what the board was worth and bad luck resulted in another blue win. Something close to half the mean at 5 box would have been a fairer offer and might have been dealt for an OPW.

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killersbee

PostPosted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 11:24 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 08/01 H
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Two £750 wins in a row already, January is beginning to look like September :eyes:

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 12:45 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 08/01 H

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I had an awful feeling about halfway during the game that it was going to be yet another 1p win, at least it was marginally better being the highest blue, but scant consolation really from an overall horrible game. The 5-box offer was well worth going on at today I thought, just bad luck, and it's been a relative drought lately for power 5 amounts at the pound table.

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James1978

PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 12:02 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 08/01 H

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Unless I'm very much mistaken, Haz is the only one to bring more than £10,000 to the table since Monique!

It's similar to January 2008 when the highest box at the table in the whole month was £20k! (And I don't think anyone had £15k either!)

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matt26

PostPosted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 2:07 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 08/01 H

Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2009 4:47 pm
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KP wrote:
James1978 wrote:
Just thought, if she'd dealt at 5-box she could have won the same as.....h. :)


At the same stage too!

Was comparing the two offers myself actually - he had £20k and £35k and to me that was a definite Deal for anyone prepared to bail out for a four-figure amount, she had £10k and £75k and I don't think that's all that much better but I'd be far more tempted to gamble! Must be because the mean's so much higher, but then...

H2005
10% £27k
30% £10k
30% £5k*
30% blue
EV AT TWO-BOX £7,200

* Using the actual proveout offer, and making the £35k/blue finish a bit more generous - in reality I'd have expected £9k and a stick for a £35k/blue and £20k/blue finish respectively!

H2010
10% £35k
30% £21k
30% £3k
30% blue
EV AT TWO-BOX £10,700

Crikey that's more than I thought! Maybe I'm overestimating what the £75k/blue finish would be, but then again the first week of 2010 showed that Endemol are definitely in the mood to induce a gamble at the moment and a big two-box offer (maybe even more than £21k on that finish!) would have been likely...


Yeah, I reckon I'd have taken £6,500 in H2005's game as well. The only way to have gotten drastically more was to keep both reds to the end. Had there been another red such as 5k backing it up I'd have probably turned it down though.

As for today, the potential rewards were much greater. Assuming an offer of 15-20K if you kept £75,000 intact, you had a 30% chance of that, meaning you would have a 30% chance of a reward equivalent to that which was only a 10% chance in H2005's game (sort of). 6-6.5k is the minimum offer I'd take on a board with 4 blues and 1 red, but with 10k as a back-up I'd want 8k to deal.

Of course, I don't have my own job yet (being 16 and all), so any money I'd want from DOND would be looking to the future and stuff like university fees and perhaps a car. For someone who's in debt and works in a supermarket, it's arguable that they perhaps should have dealt at £6,500.


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yellowzebra8

PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 12:56 am    Author: yellowzebra8    Post subject: Re: 08/01 H

Joined: Sun Feb 15, 2009 7:49 pm
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Can anyone remember the whole of Harold's Survival Kit thing? I really liked that idea but I can't remember it all!


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