By most mathematical measures of the board, the £22,500 was at least dealable - we've seen many less generous offers later in the game accepted, some of them without that much critique. Maybe it's just me being the analytical type, but I feel that should be the defining way we judge a decision. Taking that offer was perfectly reasonable conservative play. Turning it down would have been perfectly reasonable aggressive play, too.

I can't stop laughing at the fact that her partner was called Greeny (the user Greeny on here once had a reputation of being the most cautious member) and she ended up dealing the third offer.

Far from the worst one I've ever seen though, the board was much weaker than Richard's who dealt the same amount.

I'll actually believe the £26k proveout offer as more or less the same happened in Shakira's game in active play, but great that it collapsed afterwards so moderation was the way to go.

A few of my thoughts on the matters in hand...

I don't see anything wrong whatsoever with dealing the third offer. After all, there have been plenty of games recently where the third offer has been the peak of the game (Stephen, Jim and Sidney come to mind).

I don't think third dealers should be subject to any sort of criticism whatsoever; it's their decision to make, and they end up with a decent sum of money, which we viewers do not get.

It's all very easy to say you'd have gone on, but, when you actually play the show, you will suddenly realise how hard the game is, and what the money would mean to you. Therefore, you may well end up making a decision you may not have said you'd have made on here.

Comments about dishonest proveout offers make me wonder if the Banker should not be informed which decision the player makes, thereby forcing him to offer honestly for the board evey time. That's unlikely.

That's all I have to say now; no ranting intended whatsoever.

I do, very much so.




Most of the time they do. Even if they had blown the chances of getting more money BIG time.

Ladies and Gentlemen.

I give you Mark.

Well not a horrendous deal, arguably even a sensible one, though you can count me as one of those who felt there was (at least) one more round in it Probably would have taken the guv'nor myself though.

At the end of the day the amount of extra cash Lynn could have got was pretty much negligable so it's a game with no real regrets and that's all any player can ask for.

Remember Moxx's Golden Rule. It's better to deal one round too early than one round too late

Indeed. With three OR four of the power five still in play, there is ALWAYS another round in it, no matter what.

At 11-box, there was about a 21.2% chance of missing all of the top 4, 50.9% chance of taking one of the 4 out, 25.5% chance of taking 2 of the 4 out and 2.4% of taking 3 of the 4 out, so the odds are in your favour but it depends on what combination of the big numbers you take out.

I was actually thinking that a £100k and 2 low amounts round might be the only round that WOULD keep the offer in the same ballpark. It might have been £26k in live play but given the banker had her down as a cautious player, it may have also have been a stick.

I wonder if Noel didn't constantly mention how 3rd offer deals hardly ever work, people might not actually believe what a loads of codswallop that is (in that the % of people who do it probably isn't much lower than the figures for 8-box or 5-box deals).

I liked her, well done Lynne


---
I am here: http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=51.650262,-3.202705

Have 3rd offer deals paid off more often than not? I found this but it hasn't been updated in 3 years. There is a 20-17 score in the Banker's favour.

viewtopic.php?f=37&t=8951&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

And since that update, we've had a lot of 11-box Deals that have been technical wins one way or the other - this goes down as a TPW.

The vast majority of 11-box Deals turn out to be profits on the box with one or more higher hypothetical offers. Which is what you'd expect really.

Is anyone going to correct the thread title "07/02 Lynn" to "07/03 Lynn" for the sake of my OCD

(and why does clicking on the smilies take me away from the forum and back to the website's home page?!!)

What browser are you using?

It doesn't for me on Chrome.

Latest Firefox 10.0.2

Sorry, sorted it out.... had NoScript running and hadn't noticed that I hadn't allowed dond.co.uk .. everything else worked ok so I must have never gotten around to allowing it

In order to get a true representation of the validity of dealing at the 3rd offer, shouldn't you also calculate the games in which the player turned down the offer only for it to be the peak of their game?