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KP

PostPosted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 6:38 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 07/02 Lynn
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By most mathematical measures of the board, the £22,500 was at least dealable - we've seen many less generous offers later in the game accepted, some of them without that much critique. Maybe it's just me being the analytical type, but I feel that should be the defining way we judge a decision. Taking that offer was perfectly reasonable conservative play. Turning it down would have been perfectly reasonable aggressive play, too.

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James1978

PostPosted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 8:39 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 07/02 Lynn

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I can't stop laughing at the fact that her partner was called Greeny (the user Greeny on here once had a reputation of being the most cautious member) and she ended up dealing the third offer. ;-)

Far from the worst one I've ever seen though, the board was much weaker than Richard's who dealt the same amount.

I'll actually believe the £26k proveout offer as more or less the same happened in Shakira's game in active play, but great that it collapsed afterwards so moderation was the way to go. :)

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hogwild94

PostPosted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 10:07 pm    Author: hogwild94    Post subject: Re: 07/02 Lynn
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A few of my thoughts on the matters in hand...

I don't see anything wrong whatsoever with dealing the third offer. After all, there have been plenty of games recently where the third offer has been the peak of the game (Stephen, Jim and Sidney come to mind).

I don't think third dealers should be subject to any sort of criticism whatsoever; it's their decision to make, and they end up with a decent sum of money, which we viewers do not get.

It's all very easy to say you'd have gone on, but, when you actually play the show, you will suddenly realise how hard the game is, and what the money would mean to you. Therefore, you may well end up making a decision you may not have said you'd have made on here.

Comments about dishonest proveout offers make me wonder if the Banker should not be informed which decision the player makes, thereby forcing him to offer honestly for the board evey time. That's unlikely. :lol:

That's all I have to say now; no ranting intended whatsoever. :smt023

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Mark

PostPosted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 10:15 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 07/02 Lynn

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hogwild94 wrote:
I don't see anything wrong whatsoever with dealing the third offer.


I do, very much so.


hogwild94 wrote:
I don't think third dealers should be subject to any sort of criticism whatsoever;


Most of the time they do. Even if they had blown the chances of getting more money BIG time.


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Skyline

PostPosted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 10:55 pm    Author: Skyline    Post subject: Re: 07/02 Lynn
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Ladies and Gentlemen.

I give you Mark.

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2012 12:05 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 07/02 Lynn

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Well not a horrendous deal, arguably even a sensible one, though you can count me as one of those who felt there was (at least) one more round in it Probably would have taken the guv'nor myself though.

At the end of the day the amount of extra cash Lynn could have got was pretty much negligable so it's a game with no real regrets and that's all any player can ask for.

Remember Moxx's Golden Rule. It's better to deal one round too early than one round too late

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Mark

PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2012 12:33 am    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 07/02 Lynn

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Indeed. With three OR four of the power five still in play, there is ALWAYS another round in it, no matter what.


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Simon F

PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2012 12:44 am    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 07/02 Lynn
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Mark wrote:
Indeed. With three OR four of the power five still in play, there is ALWAYS another round in it, no matter what.


At 11-box, there was about a 21.2% chance of missing all of the top 4, 50.9% chance of taking one of the 4 out, 25.5% chance of taking 2 of the 4 out and 2.4% of taking 3 of the 4 out, so the odds are in your favour but it depends on what combination of the big numbers you take out.

I was actually thinking that a £100k and 2 low amounts round might be the only round that WOULD keep the offer in the same ballpark. It might have been £26k in live play but given the banker had her down as a cautious player, it may have also have been a stick.

I wonder if Noel didn't constantly mention how 3rd offer deals hardly ever work, people might not actually believe what a loads of codswallop that is (in that the % of people who do it probably isn't much lower than the figures for 8-box or 5-box deals).

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beaker

PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2012 1:50 am    Author: beaker    Post subject: 07/02 Lynn
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I liked her, well done Lynne


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dougal18

PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2012 10:14 am    Author: dougal18    Post subject: Re: 07/02 Lynn

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Have 3rd offer deals paid off more often than not? I found this but it hasn't been updated in 3 years. There is a 20-17 score in the Banker's favour.

viewtopic.php?f=37&t=8951&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

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KP

PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2012 11:34 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 07/02 Lynn
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And since that update, we've had a lot of 11-box Deals that have been technical wins one way or the other - this goes down as a TPW.

The vast majority of 11-box Deals turn out to be profits on the box with one or more higher hypothetical offers. Which is what you'd expect really.

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Brown Sauce

PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2012 11:54 am    Author: Brown Sauce    Post subject: Re: 07/02 Lynn
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Is anyone going to correct the thread title "07/02 Lynn" to "07/03 Lynn" for the sake of my OCD :)

(and why does clicking on the smilies take me away from the forum and back to the website's home page?!!)


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Mark

PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2012 12:34 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 07/02 Lynn

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What browser are you using?

It doesn't for me on Chrome.


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Brown Sauce

PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2012 1:01 pm    Author: Brown Sauce    Post subject: Re: 07/02 Lynn
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Latest Firefox 10.0.2

Sorry, sorted it out.... had NoScript running and hadn't noticed that I hadn't allowed dond.co.uk :oops: .. everything else worked ok so I must have never gotten around to allowing it :-D


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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2012 12:20 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 07/02 Lynn

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KP wrote:
And since that update, we've had a lot of 11-box Deals that have been technical wins one way or the other - this goes down as a TPW.

The vast majority of 11-box Deals turn out to be profits on the box with one or more higher hypothetical offers. Which is what you'd expect really.


In order to get a true representation of the validity of dealing at the 3rd offer, shouldn't you also calculate the games in which the player turned down the offer only for it to be the peak of their game?

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