Interesting game, something different again with the sign language, and a rather unexpected 3-box offer that was very close to the expected value of precisely £14,140.43 based on FDs. The calculator today says a shade under 12k will be offered on average - the extra 2k makes quite a difference I think as the only (possible) increase worth playing for is on the all red finish, and with that only being a 33% chance, not worth the risk for me.

I disagree - gives the player another decision (unless the player is going to go to the end anyway, in which case it's irrelevant).

3-box decision was tough to judge without knowing the generosity of the red/blue offers (the all red finish is pretty easy to judge as £27k) but I was actually thinking £7k for the finish she had and converting that generosity gives about £12k for the £35/blue finish, so you are talking about an EV of about £15k but with a guaranteed £7k.

2nd OPW in a row from a sensible decision so can't complain.

Yes, that sounds about right. The way I've worked out my EV stats is to assume the generosity of each 2-box offer will be 'fair', and so I use the 'Fair Deal' figure for future offers kind of like an 'equaliser' effect. Generally, it's a fairly good guide, and particularly interesting to look at early on like 11-box, when it'd be quite difficult to work out the figure in your head!

I'll probably explain it a bit more on a page on here during the summer break, as some of the formulas are a bit complex, but for now feel free to try it out for anyone who hasn't already at the site below!