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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 4:54 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 14/06 Ahmed
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Laurence with box 12 contains the £250,000

Noel says that £7,500 is a pretty good result in terms of the game, but he did miss out on £55,000. The Banker calls back and says that he doesn't do this for a lot of people, but Ahmed can keep the teddy :lol:

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killersbee

PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 4:55 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 14/06 Ahmed
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Nope, he doesn't break the record for lowest payout for a QM box and Laurence has it for the third time in a row, I bet his game will involve a blue win

Still, again we start the week with no OPW :(

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 4:59 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 14/06 Ahmed
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A very poor deal. Wouldn't have been upset to see the biggie there. Not often I say this either as we all know...

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Kaledmutant

PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 5:01 pm    Author: Kaledmutant    Post subject: Re: 14/06 Ahmed
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Okay, this is really getting on my nerves now, can someone pass on to Noel that whether live play or proveout the swap should be offered as the game could have ended differently for both Ahmed and Jodie in proveout and I am so hacked off that at times Noel takes great pleasure in doing the hypo-swap and sticking the knife in. He should play on with honesty not make up his own rules. :smt071 :smt071

Rant over.

Best wishes to all who do take a decent sum from the game whatever it might be.


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matt26

PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 5:06 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 14/06 Ahmed

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killersbee wrote:
Nope, he doesn't break the record for lowest payout for a QM box and Laurence has it for the third time in a row, I bet his game will involve a blue win


Not quite three games in a row. He's had it twice in a row, and three times, but the other time was three days ago...

7.5k was quite a shocking deal, truth be told. Yes, it was a very vulnerable board, but selling a 250k box for 7.5k would be extremely painful, and with a 40% chance of a very tempting offer indeed, IMO it would have been worth the chance (heck, I'd value a 20% chance of 250k over 7.5k guaranteed...) But evidently the money meant a lot to them, and he was probably influenced by the bad luck over the past week or so...

Every offer except 55k was derisory tbh. Still, at least he didn't have 250k in his box; I dare to think what Noel would have done if he had.


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James1978

PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 7:17 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 14/06 Ahmed

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Well I turned off in despair at 8-box after what the 11-box and 8-box offers were, thinking in disgust "Well after the recent run of bad games, they're obviously trying to Wakey their way out of a massive hole by offering crap" and thought I'd read the review on here.

Now after seeing what he dealt for on that board the reason the offers were so lousy becomes clear. :)

He even had some high blue consolations if the biggie did go.

Think I'm ready for the summer break NOW!!

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DanS

PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 8:06 pm    Author: DanS    Post subject: Re: 14/06 Ahmed
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Am I the only one who can understand why he dealt and thought it wasn't so shocking? Obviously selling the quarter mill for £7.5k would be a catastrophe, but it was a 1-box game, and 1 box games can scare a lot of people. When there is no backup, it makes people think, and I think it was obvious that he was there to win something.

I personally thought Chloe's deal yesterday was worse.


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James1978

PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 8:20 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 14/06 Ahmed

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To be honest it doesn't even register on the worst-deal ever territory actually. It's the lowest-ever deal with the biggie still in play at 5-box though. To be fair, it was a 60% chance of a blue win if he went on - I think of many worse deals than that at the same stage or earlier in the game where the chances of a blue win were much smaller, in one round anyway. (Ahem - Chris from Halloween 2008, and David who played a couple of weeks later!) :)

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killersbee

PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 8:55 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 14/06 Ahmed
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I can see others getting annoyed by this too, the summer break needs to get here and fast cause the luck has long gone since Jodie had what's left of it, but didn't make full use of it

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matt26

PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 9:36 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 14/06 Ahmed

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DanS wrote:
Am I the only one who can understand why he dealt and thought it wasn't so shocking? Obviously selling the quarter mill for £7.5k would be a catastrophe, but it was a 1-box game, and 1 box games can scare a lot of people. When there is no backup, it makes people think, and I think it was obvious that he was there to win something.

I personally thought Chloe's deal yesterday was worse.


There have certainly been worse deals, but it was still quite... unusual. IDK, it's just that 7.5k is the sort of offer I'd want for a 100k one-box game, not a 250k one-box game! Evidently he was in great need of the money. But yeah, I can think of many worse deals, and I can't foresee anything topping 1k Michael.

But still, I suppose you have to congratulate the banker on reading him so well. Ever since Jodie's game, in every game that wasn't a trainwreck, the banker has been able to read the contestant's very well, getting them to deal offers that most would consider derisory.


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MisterAl

PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 9:47 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject: Re: 14/06 Ahmed
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James1978 wrote:
It's the lowest-ever deal with the biggie still in play at 5-box though.

Not only that, but it's the lowest ever OFFER with the biggie still in play at 5-box. (The previous lowest was £9000.)

As you rightly said though, with a 60% chance of definitely winning a blue if it was turned down, it was perfectly justifiable to take what is a significant amount of money.

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 10:59 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 14/06 Ahmed

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I can certainly understand why Ahmed dealt even if the offer was a little lower than most would have liked. A one box game is a one box game no matter which box it is. Given he did in fact bring a blue to the table he was just unlucky not to hit the biggie in the proveout.

At the moment players are just mistiming their bailout, they either go one too soon or hold on too long and win a blue, it would be nice to break the cycle but that's the luck (or lack of it) of the game

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Simon F

PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 11:53 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 14/06 Ahmed
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Kaledmutant wrote:
Okay, this is really getting on my nerves now, can someone pass on to Noel that whether live play or proveout the swap should be offered as the game could have ended differently for both Ahmed and Jodie in proveout and I am so hacked off that at times Noel takes great pleasure in doing the hypo-swap and sticking the knife in. He should play on with honesty not make up his own rules. :smt071 :smt071

Rant over.

Best wishes to all who do take a decent sum from the game whatever it might be.


It's possible that the swap was offered, declined and ended up on the cutting-room floor.

Thank goodness the QM wasn't in his box today. Can see why he dealt given last week's events but for me that was an easy no-deal at 5-box.

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 12:16 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 14/06 Ahmed

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As others have said, a speculative deal but not totally unjustifiable with a 60% chance of disaster. To most, £7,500 would be worth the risk in that situation, but it was clearly a significant amount for him, and there's probably a bit of a feeling in the Dream Factory that the luck just won't hold at the moment... (of course, he was bound to get good luck once he'd dealt :roll: )

Still, at least he didn't sell £250,000 for £7,500, that would've been painful, and one of the reasons why I'd no-deal it instantly, that regret would be tenfold for me over winning a blue.

In other exciting news, I've updated my website I started a couple of years back, which has various DOND-related stats on it. There's also a few stats tools I've devised, including something I'm trialling called the 'EV calculator'. If you want to know what that's about, head to the website in my signature!

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