I don't know how to code spoilers, but...

Once AGAIN, the contestant NDs the fourth offer, and never had another higher offer OR case amount higher. In this game, had I picked the same numbers, I *definately* would have taken the $37K and ran, and scored a nice TPW. (I admit that I would have ND'd the third offer (Games where the second offer or third offer are the highest ones are unlucky, so I can't blame them too much, but still...), but still I would have done better than the contestant actually did.)

Still, are you surprised that only ONE contestant to date has Dealt at the fourth offer, despite the fact that that might be the best point of the whole game to deal?! If I were to take note of all of JR's summaries, I would think that the fourth offer would score OPWs more than any other point of the game (including the case), yet only ONE contestant out of about 100 (?) has taken it.

I just want to see ONE more contestant take the fourth offer, even if the proveout proves that the decision is wrong (They still would win more than chump change if this would happen.). If I were playing, I would pretty much take the fourth offer ANYTIME:

1) The offer seems generous for the board.
2) The $1M *or* $750K are still in play (unless I had a LOT of OTHER high amounts AND very few low amounts for good fallback so I could confidently ND a lower fifth offer and expect to get the money back).
3) Pretty much any two-case game. (I mean, the offer usually goes down if you knock off ONE of those amounts in a 2-case game AND it becomes a one case game if that happens, AND it's possible to knock off BOTH of the high amounts.)
4) Any one-case game (Although the odds actually favor ND'ing the fourth offer better in a one-case game than a two-case game).

I *might* make an exception to the above scenarios if the offer seems *very* stingy for the board, but that's it.

I would probably still ND the fourth offer anytime:

1) Most three-case (and safer) games (I could ND the fifth offer and expect higher offers late if I play on, while not risking everything.). I still acknowlege that I'm taking quite a risk in doing this, but it does increase my chance of winning the really BIG money.
2) I still have a lot of medium-to-high-amounts (between $50,000 and $300,000) still in play. You can often knock these amounts (Esp. the $50K and $75K,) for very little on the next offer unless you don't have any really high amounts left, but they can save your game (or least ensure a 5-digit payday) if you keep then in play.).

Even in the two situations (esp. the first one), I would still take the fourth offer if it seems generous for the board.

Still, in a two-box game at the 8-box stage, I would take the fourth offer almost every time. The offer will likely go down if you knock out ONE of the top amounts (and it becomes a one-case game, which is risky even with the one-case-at-a-time), and it's possible to knock out BOTH high numbers. I wouldn't regret that decision too much even if I keep both of the high numbers in play and had the next offer doubled AND even have one of two remaining high amounts in my case, because I know I played a safe odds-on game and guarenteed a nice payday.

Unless there's something about the odds that's against dealing the fourth offer that I'm missing...

So, my main questions are this:

1. Why do so few people deal at the fourth offer? (I know the "rooting friends" is a big reason (And, going by your "friends" advice in pretty much a strictly luck game is another pet peeve.), but are the others?).)
2. Are you, like me, surprised that no more than one person has taken the fourth offer of all the contestants to play on US DOND so far?

PS: I would not cheer (or even say "That's OK!") to the $50,000 and $75,000 going early, either (They CAN save your game from disaster if you knock off all the higher amounts, but at least leave the $50K and/or the $75K in play.), but that's not my biggest US DOND pet peeve. But, contestants rarely taking the fourth offer IS. With that said, I would still never take the first or second offer, and proabably would only take the third offer if the board is unsafe and the offer is generous for the board.

Thanks!

UPDATE: The carryover contestant on the 2/5 Episode dealt at the fourth offer, being only the second player to do so. And, just like the first one, another Outright Player Win! I tell you, fourth offer deals rule! I were on the show, I would always take the fourth offer UNLESS I had a very stingy offer and/or a safe board. I still wonder why more contestants don't deal at the fourth offer, though. (Then again, I wonder why so many contestants deal at the sixth offer, a point where I'd pretty much always play on (If I'm still playing).)

With Vicki's game, the one earlier this season, and all the low wins last month from not taking the fourth offer, will fourth offer deals become a more regular occurance?

Thanks:

AArnett: Fan of fourth offer dealing at US DOND.