And here's how it went!

Contestant: Angela Tena!

Chosen case: 13!

Round One: Six Cases:

19: $5!

1: $750

3: $200,000

5: $25

2: $400,000

23: $10,000

Banker's offer: $30,000!

NO DEAL!

Round Two: Five Cases:

12: $500,000!

15: $5,000

11: $25,000

26: $400

7: $75

Banker's offer: $62,000!

NO DEAL!

Round Three: Four Cases:

10: $300,000

17: $100

4: $10

25: $100,000

Banker's offer: $86,000!

NO DEAL!

Round Four: Three Cases:

20: $500

8: $50,000

6: $300

Banker's offer: $141,000!



















NO DEAL!

Round Five: Two Cases:

21: $750,000!!

9: $1,000,000!!!

UNBELEAVBLE BAD LUCK!!!! Poor Angela has just eliminated the two largest sums on the board in a row. Worse, those were the last of the really huge amounts on the board as well. The most Angela can hope for is $75,000. And possibly could win even more later on...

The Final Six:

- .01¢
- $1
- $50
- $200
- $1,000
- $75,000

Banker's offer: $9,000!

NO DEAL!

Round Six: One Case:

16: .01¢!!!

Banker's offer: $15,000!

NO DEAL!

Round Seven: One Case:

22: $200

Banker's offer: $21,000!

NO DEAL!

Round Eight: One Case:

18: $50

Banker's offer: $27,000!

NO DEAL!

Round Nine: One Case:

14: $75,000

DISASTER!!! This game just went from bad to worse! Angela pushed her luck perhaps one time too soon and, as a result, is left with this:

The Final Two:

- $1
- $1,000

Banker's offer: $500!

NO DEAL!

Round Ten: Last Case:

Howie does not offer the swap to Angela and must take whatever is in Case 13, a case that has indeed proven to be unlucky. One amount would be a record low for the American version, another would be a decent gift.

Angela has won...

13: $1,000!

To prove it:

24: $1

However, the game is not over! Angela could turn her $1,000 into $2,000 if she wishes to play...

DOUBLE OR NOTHING!

Same rules apply: Two large cases, one "Double", the other "Nothing". It will be a 100% risk. Angela could either win $2,000 or $0! Of course, she could also choose not play and keep the $1,000.

Will Angela gamble her grand? She decides...

NO DEAL!

Just for fun, Howie lets Angela pick a case anyway. She would have picked the case on the right side. This is what would have happened if Angela chose to take the risk...

RIGHT: NOTHING!

Smart move after all!

To prove it:

LEFT: DOUBLE!

Game Summary:

Peak offer: $141,000
Case value: $1,000
Double or Nothing: Refused
Prize won: $1,000
Result: Outright Banker Win

And there you have it!
-Joe R.

Wow - she really was the most irrational player ever. Turned down two AMOs and then refused Double or Nothing.

Good day to be risk-averse!

In taking out $1,000,000 and $750,000 in Round 5 Angela fulfilled a 1 in 28 probability- that's a 3.5% chance! I think with the disappointment she tried to chase what she had lost.

KP described this game in the chatroom last night. Like Rico said, there was a 1 in 28 chance of taking out the two big numbers, so it was very bad luck. I think I might have taken the $141,000, though.

Case 21 has had $1,000,000 twice and $750,000 in the last three games. It seems to be the danger case at the moment, and has been for a while this season, yet it's not been picked once.

Another Banker Win thanks to Greed! I would have dealt at $141 in a hurry! That had deal written all over it: A virtual 2-box game with $750K and $1M.

Why do contestants SO RARELY take the Fourth Offer! ESPECIALLY at powerful boards.

With a big board, dealing there (Fourth offer, Eight-box stage) would have been OPWs like 60% of the time, yet nobody ever deals there!

JR, if I can have my permission, I would like to make a stats post on (based on your summaries):

1. When is the best point to deal?
2. What percentage of the time that dealing at the Fouth offer (8-box stage) would produce an OPW, esp. when the offer at that point is $100K or more? I'd say in games where you get a big board and an offer of $100K or more, so far, would have produced OPWs at least 50% of the time, if not much higher. I would pretty much ALWAYS deal there if I had either $750K or $1M still in play and an offer in the 6-digits there!

Furthermore, hasn't only ONE player dealt at the fourth offer so far in US DOND? And, IIRC, didn't that player score an OPW?


It's a pet peeve of mine that nobody ever deals at the fourth offer, yet they often deal at the fifth and sixth offers, which, if I'm still playing at that point, would pretty much always no-deal.

Thanks!

You sure can!



Correct!

-Joe R.

This episode is being rerun as the first episode tonight, March 26, 2007.

Why do they always choose trainwreck episodes to show as the repeats?