Good evening, and welcome to another Deal USA live recap. We begin this week’s episode with some foreshadowing. A few hours before tonight’s broadcast, Deal USA’s official Twitter account, @DealNoDealCNBC, posted a short video of Howie Mandel providing some commentary on tonight’s game. Here is what he said.

“I think I’m going to throw up. I really do. You know when you get off a roller coaster and you feel really shaken and not stirred? I think I’m shaken. I am about to throw up. No spoilers, but this particular game was crazy.”

Then, less than an hour before the game, there was another short video posted where a nearly speechless Howie said...

“Oh my God. Oh my God. They wanted me to make a... Oh my God. They wanted me to say something about what just (happened)... Oh my God. And I think...”

At this point, Howie couldn’t finish his sentence, and he just walked off. So I guess that sets the tone for what we are about to bear witness to. I want to say we’re in for a good game, but those videos have me a bit worried. Then again, the producers could be trolling us big time, but for now, I’m going to watch the episode with those remarks from Howie in mind.

I think this is the first recap I’ve ever written that included a disclaimer. It’s also the first one where I will have a garbage can on standby, just in case I feel the need to ralf myself.

- - -

Our episode begins with Howie introducing tonight’s game from the Banker’s skybox. After the ladies descend with the cases, Howie returns to the stage to introduce to Sony Avalos. She’s been married to a former Marine for 18 years, has three children, and works as a family readiness officer for the Marines.

Sony claims to be the world’s biggest Deal superfan, and has won over $6.3 million in pretend money playing the various Deal online and arcade games. Now, she gets to play the game for real. She also remembered Edward Tommasi’s game from the original series, best remembered for Ed’s willingness to do anything for a five-dollar bet.

Our contestant plans to use her winnings to help her family and move into a forever home. She picks case 26 because her daughter was born on August 26. Now that we’re all nice and acquainted, let’s go to work.

Round 1
[1] - $300,000
[5] - $25,000
[17] - $100
[21] - $.01 - Nice to get that out of the way early.
[11] - $100,000
[10] - $200,000

The Power 7 has been decimated a bit, but four of those amounts are still in play. The first offer is

BANKER'S OFFER

$20,000

Soni says NO DEAL.

Five cases to open in the next round, and we’ll open them right after the break.

We’re back, and it’s time for round 2.

Round 2
[6] - $400,000
[24] - $50,000
[13] - $5,000
[18] - $1,000,000 - Bye-bye millski.
[3] - $200

Well, that round sucked. I can’t say it any plainer than that. There are only two large amounts left in play. The second offer is

BANKER'S OFFER

$12,000

Sony’s supporters include her daughter Bonnie, her husband Pablo the ex-Marine and her best friend Nicole, a fellow family readiness officer. After consulting with them, Sony says NO DEAL.

Round 3
[16] - $5

More excitement on the way after the break.

We’re back to complete the third round, which got off to a good start before the break. Howie brings up Ed Tommasi’s game again and offers Sony the chance to win five bucks. To win the money, she has to stick her hand inside a box and touch what’s inside. She agrees, and pockets the money after touching a toy T-Rex.

[20] - $500
[19] - $750,000 - Oops.
[7] - $25

Another bad round for Sony. The Banker says she should feel lucky because the offer went up a bit.

BANKER'S OFFER

$17,000

“If this doesn’t go well, it’s gonna be a loooong ride home,” says Sony. After hearing what her supporters think, Sony says NO DEAL.

Time for Sony to earn another $5. Once again, she must touch what’s inside the box from before. This time, there’s a man’s head inside the box. Specifically, it’s the head of Ed Tommasi himself. He licks Sony’s hand, she screams, and he then reveals himself and joins the supporters on the couch. Sony pockets another fiver, and we get back to the game.

Round 4
[15] - $1
[25] - $50
[12] - $1,000

The Banker phones in her offer, and it will be revealed after the break.

Deal USA plays on with Sony’s fourth bank offer. Howie says it’s her biggest offer yet. The offer is

BANKER'S OFFER

$31,000

That represents an 82 per cent increase over the last offer. Everyone wants Sony to go for it. She believes she’s got the half-million in her case, so she says NO DEAL.

Round 5
[9] - $400
[22] - $750

That’s the good round we were looking for. The board at this point:

$10
$75
$300
$10,000
$75,000
$500,000

And the offer is...

BANKER'S OFFER

$59,000

We’ll get Sony’s decision after the break.

We’re back. Before the break, the Banker offered Sony

BANKER'S OFFER

$59,000

One case at a time if she declines it, and that’s a risk our player willing to take. Sony says NO DEAL.

Round 6
[4] - $10,000

We’re still alive. There’s a 20 per cent chance that case 26 holds the half-million. The Banker calls and says that there’s something everyone should known about gambling - that the house always wins. Sony’s been lucky thus far, but will she sell out now for

BANKER'S OFFER

$94,000

Ed runs through the stats. There’s an 80 per cent chance Sony will open anything but the landmine in the next round. Sony says that she might be in the Banker’s house, but she’s the tenant, making it her house now. She says NO DEAL.

Round 7
[8] - $300

“That is HUGE!” Howie exaclaims. “A huge offer is coming her way after the break!”

We’re back. Howie talks to Ed about his game, where he made a $131,000 deal. As a result, the Banker gives Sony a chance to make a better deal than her hero by offering her

BANKER'S OFFER

$132,000

Sony quickly says NO DEAL.

Round 8
[2] - $10

Everyone goes nuts, and rightfully so. The board right now:

$300
$75,000
$500,000

The Banker wants Sony to go home now, and she offers her

BANKER'S OFFER

$197,000

Sony is thinking about countering, and that’s exactly what she does. Sony’s counter offer is

BANKER'S OFFER

$250,000

That might be too much for that board. The Banker calls back quickly because it was an easy decision for her. She says NO DEAL, and we press on.

Round 9
[23] - $500,000
Looks like someone got bitten by the greedy bug. The last offer of the night is

BANKER'S OFFER

$39,000

“You’re leaving a winner no matter what,” says Ed. I disagree. Sony wants to keep going, but her sensible side - where was that side a few minutes ago? - says she should deal. That’s ultimately what she decides to do. It’s a DEAL.

Time is just about up, so Howie opens Sony’s case to reveal $75. Case 14 held $75,000.

Not much to say here, except Sony’s so-called “sensible side” kicked in far too late. Fortunately, she still managed to get some money out of her game, and she leaves with a total of $39,010.

Next time, we open up an in-vest-igation. Find out what that means next week. Until then, good night, good deals, and always remember that greed makes you bleed.

You'd think a huge fan of the show would know that playing without a safety net WILL burn you at some point, but sadly greed got the best of her.

Why do so many people utterly suck at counteroffering?

That’s because they can’t read the game board and calculate the mean like we do. Of the various counter offers made thus far, I think only about two or three of them made sense statistically, and were accepted as a result.

And be clear, the $500,000 counter offer was not one of them. Courtney got EXTREMELY lucky that Banker was willing to accept an offer of 107% of the average for the sake of making good tv.

After looking through the recaps, the only time the counter offer was used properly was when Robert countered with $185,000 on a $500/$750/$75k/$100k/$1 Million board. All the rest were either way too high (regardless of the Banker deciding to throw a bone and accept it for the sake of good tv) or too early, which leads the Banker declining it even if it's sensible as they want the game it go for one more tense round.

Of course, like the offer button on UK Deal, players aren't grasping that their gameplay really shouldn't be affected by the counter offer. If the offer would be a definite deal for them normally, then they should take it rather than counter and risk a crash.