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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2015 9:09 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Super Easy Big Win on APOAL
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Joined: Thu Jan 10, 2013 10:20 pm
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I just across a great episode on the new series of APOAL. Watch this if you want: http://mareplaytv.fr/video/a-prendre-ou ... aout-2015/

That is without question the easiest path to the Dream Finish that anyone has ever had on Deal or No Deal. Just look at the offers at the business end of the game:

Board:

TUBA (JOKE prize)
€0.05
€0.10

€1,000
€50,000
€100,000


Offer: €8,800
Deal-Eye Benchmark: €14,022.35 (63%)
Mean: €25,166.69 (35%)
Fair Deal: €9,088.35 (97%)

As you will see, this was the one and only remotely serious offer of the game. Still, with only a 1 in 15 chance of losing both of the Top 2 and the offer crashing only a VERY cautious player would Deal here.

Board:
TUBA
€1,000
€50,000
€100,000


Offer: €9,800 :?
Deal-Eye Benchmark: €23,416.46 (42%)
Mean: €37,750 (26%)
Fair Deal: €20,410.22 (48%)

Yes, the Banker (aka Le Rat) only went up by €1,000 despite 2 low amounts being hit. Needless to say, that offer is beyond stingy. Only an idiot would Deal that with one box to open.

Board:
€1,000
€50,000
€100,000


Offer: €10,950 :? :? :smt011 :smt011
Deal-Eye Benchmark: €35,023.48 (31%)
Mean: €50,333.33 (22%)
Fair Deal: €36,284.83 (30%)

I'm pretty sure the only player in Deal or No Deal history who would take this would be Iris (1). Even given how this Banker works, the offer is likely to go up even if the next box is €100,000! Did the Banker make all these low offer because he knows the player has a low amount in their box?

Board:
€50,000
€100,000


:D :D :D

Offer: €55,000 :roll:
Deal-Eye Benchmark/Fair Deal: €72,855.34 (75%)
Mean: €75,000 (73%)

Apparently not! I'm 99% certain even Iris (1) would decline this. You're risking €5,000 to gain €45,000 with €50,000 already guaranteed.

Needless to say, the Banker would not a jackpot win THAT easy. The guy had €50,000 in his box, which also needless to say given these offers he won. :smt023

To finish the game, they changed the options for Box 25 this season. Here they are:

DOUBLE
+€1,000

HALF
NOTHING


This makes Box 25 an even bigger no-brainer than last season on anything higher than €2,000. The guy quickly declined to buy Box 25, which contained HALF.

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