But...they're not! Tomorrow, she has a 1 in 22 chance of having the £250k. It's not as if she picks the box and it thinks "Ooh, she's had £250k the past four times, I'd better change and be something else." It's entirely random. (Assuming it isn't actually fixed, anyway.)

If I look BEFORE ANY OF THE GAMES in which Michela had the £250k, and say "Hmmm... IN THE SPECIFIC NEXT FIVE GAMES what are the chance that THIS SPECIFIC PLAYER has the £250k in their box." is that massive number.

Sitting here NOW abd asking "In the NEXT GAME, what are the chances that THIS SPECIFIC PLAYER has the £250k in their box" it is exactly the same no matter WHAT has gone on before. Thus, the answer is 1 in 22.

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To those of you who are more mathematically minded, consider this:

A = A specific player has the £250k four times in a row.
B = A specific player has the £250k.

Clearly, B is not affected by A, so they are independant events. In which case, these laws hold true:

P(AnB) = P(A)*P(B)
P(A|B) = P(A)

These statements link in with the two aboce.

But both things are the same, thats what i dont get.

Yes, so in hindsight as they say, you could say that the chances of Michaela having had it 4 times in a row are 1 in 2 hundred and something thousand or whatever it was, a huge number, but the chances of her having it tomorrow are 1 in 22.

Mm... We're touching on the debate we had about Mally's Law, here. Interesting...

If I had said before Steph's show "I think Michaela will have the £250k in each of the next five games", the probability would be 1/22 * 1/22 * 1/22 * 1/22 * 1/22 (i.e. 5 million +), as there would be a 1 in 22 chance of her having it in each separate show. Back then, we had no idea whether she was going to have it or not.

However, we now have more information - we know that she has had it in each of the past four shows. The probability of that is therefore 1, as it's definitely happened. So the probability of her having it in the past four shows and tomorrow's show is 1 * 1 * 1 * 1 * 1/22, which is still just 1/22.

But if she has it tomorrow, she had odds of 12,000+ or whatever of having it which are impossible.

Yeah...

I have to be honest, that's as clear and succinct as it could possibly be. If you don't understand that, then you might as well give up trying to understand.

I understand, sort of. But there's one common denominator throughout all of this - it's bl**dy unusual and unheard of for someone to have the same value, even stranger that it's the £250k, three times, and then four times in a row!!! Can she make it a 5th? I bet she has 1p tomorrow!

Haha that would be funny if she did...hang on no it wouldn't...she must have the £250,000 tomorrow or else!

It'll be so disappointing if she doesn't...

I really doubt she'll have it a 5th time!

h2005! Don't be so negative!

I have every faith in her...I believe she can do it...she must!

Sorry! I'll try again - she will have the £250k tomorrow, definitely. There, is that better, Banker?

Much.

Hahah, I know...she's bound to stop having it at some point (well, probably...), but it'll be such a letdown when she does! I have a feeling I'm not going to pay much attention to the next few games, because I'll just be sitting there waiting for Michaela to be picked.

While we're all getting over the disappointment of Michaela not having the £250k, I thought I'd point out that Maddie has had £100k, £75k and £250k in the past three shows. Pretty impressive, but nowhere near as good as Michaela...

She also had £35,000 in Sharron's game.

The current 22 contestants seem to have quite a lot of black widows and terminators... that's Michaela, Maddie and Nev, and wasn't Khanny a terminator for a while?

Vee is definitely a white maiden. No big ones at all for her yet, as she said in today's show and Billy's the male equivalent. (A white.......man?)