I'm putting all the generosity stats up here now, just to make it a bit easier for anyone wanting to look at them. All stats exclude swap, dream and proveout offers, and special themed editions in analysis. Now Updated every 50 show cycle.

Banker Offer Benchmarks

August-October 2009:
(based on shows 1099-1148):

Round 1 offers: 25% of the mean (Average offer: £6,781.45)
Round 2 offers: 28% of the mean (Average offer: £8,305.08)
Round 3 offers: 30% of the mean (Average offer: £8,229.24)
Round 4 offers: 38% of the mean (Average offer: £9,592.72)
Round 5 offers: 46% of the mean (Average offer: £9,101.39)
Round 6 offers: 58% of the mean (Average offer: £5,521.47)

Average Mean Value of board at each stage:
(based on shows 1099-1148):

Round 1: £26,349.17
Round 2: £27,885.91
Round 3: £25,677.07
Round 4: £23,734.71
Round 5: £19,522.02
Round 6: £8,617.97

Random Calculations you could make:
(Contained in spoiler to save space!)

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May-July 2009:
(based on shows 1044-1093):

Round 1 offers: 25% of the mean (Average offer: £6,256.07)
Round 2 offers: 28% of the mean (Average offer: £7,195.56)
Round 3 offers: 33% of the mean (Average offer: £7,449.54)
Round 4 offers: 42% of the mean (Average offer: £9,387.90)
Round 5 offers: 53% of the mean (Average offer: £10,836.85)
Round 6 offers: 66% of the mean (Average offer: £7,339.17)

Average Mean Value of board at each stage:
(based on shows 1044-1093):

Round 1: £24,523.80
Round 2: £23,937.09
Round 3: £22,399.30
Round 4: £22,188.79
Round 5: £20,454.19
Round 6: £11,096.98

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May-July 2008:
(based on shows 763-817):

Round 1 offers: 22% of the mean
Round 2 offers: 25% of the mean
Round 3 offers: 29% of the mean
Round 4 offers: 33% of the mean
Round 5 offers: 43% of the mean
Round 6 offers: 66% of the mean

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August-October 2006
(based on shows 237-286):

Round 1 offers: 26% of the mean (70% of the FD)
Round 2 offers: 43% of the mean (116% of the FD)
Round 3 offers: 51% of the mean (133% of the FD)
Round 4 offers: 56% of the mean (136% of the FD)
Round 5 offers: 58% of the mean (134% of the FD)
Round 6 offers: 71% of the mean (112% of the FD)

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It's interesting how the banker's generosity has changed. There was a period about 2 years ago (I think) where he'd offer high early offers and lower mid-game offers (and sometimes lower end-game offers) to encourage the players to chase the money they'd turned down earlier.

Presumably he knows if he did that nowadays, they probably would deal early rather than chase the offer! I think the jump between the generosity between 5-box and 2-box highlights how he would appear to be trying to make people play on later these days. Although I have to say I'm surprised it's as high as 77% when you think of some of the stingy 2-box offers he's made lately.

Just to put that into context, here's the benchmarks for episodes 237-286.

Round 1 offers: 26% of the mean / 70% of the FD
Round 2 offers: 43% of the mean / 116% of the FD
Round 3 offers: 51% of the mean / 133% of the FD
Round 4 offers: 56% of the mean / 136% of the FD
Round 5 offers: 58% of the mean / 134% of the FD
Round 6 offers: 71% of the mean / 112% of the FD

Wow these days of unstable boards and wave of uncertainty amongst the players is affecting the offers alot more that I'd expected, although interesting to see that the 6th offer generosity is still the same as it was a fair while back (although I'd imagine thats down to the fact there's only so much leeway the banker has with just the two offers left on the board...)

I was going to write up a guide today to the stats that I use for every show for newbies and others who just dont understand and I was going to offer putting some more (or less) stats in if anyone wanted it...

The banker would probably offer £3,000 on a 10p/ £250,000 finish these days.

the banker's offer patterns are interesting, nowadays they start off well at 8-10K if they have good a board then increase in small increments of 3-5K even with a strong board/good rounds. presumably this is either to make them think they're generous or the opposite to attempt drag them on to a big finish.

with an average board they're still lowish and the banker likes to throw in joke offers when there is potential to do so.

We've certainly seen the end of generous late/end game offers anyway.

To really put into context, what are the benchmarks for the so called "wakey winter" (say episode 352 (first after Laura) up till the 3rd offer dealers week)

You know why it still looks good don't you?

If the big money is still in the game, that is the only time the offers struggle. If say the big money is limited from the start then the offers are more "normal", hence cranking the stats back up. And since the number of games we've had big money stay in the game late on has been minute since Christmas, it has balanced out rather oddly well stats-wise

Clever!

Updated for the new season!

In the early days of the show the offers at the start of the game would be very poor and work up to become very generous (e.g. Mally's / Jennifer's / Trevor's / Madie's games). Then there was a stage where the offers would be very high at the start of the game (e.g. Howard's game) and would tail off towards the end to make people chase the money.

It looks as though now (judging by the stats above, although I can't say I've particularly noticed it whilst watching) that we're slightly going back to how it used to be when the show first started - with poorer offers at the start of the game and more generous ones later on.

I don't see there being another Jennifer-like offer if the same final 2 came about though...

I'd have thought so too, but after Em's game recently where she got a £120k proveout offer, I wouldn't be surprised if it did happen! Although admittedly, her game was unusual to the banker knowing what was in her box after the sunburn twist...

Yeah, in a normal game with no twists however, I don't see it happening.

All generosity stats now in the first post.

Ok, time for an update as we've now (astonishingly) had 50 shows of season 5! All the usual stats in the first post, but here's some additional stats/ records for you:

Highest 17-box offer: £12,500 (Kyle, 18th Sept '09)
Best 1st offer board average: £33,186.24 (Tracey, 1st Oct '09)
Best offer as % of mean: 43.98% (Spencer, 27th Aug '09)

Highest 14-box offer: £16,500 (Tel, 23rd Sept '09)
Best 2nd offer board average: £39,304.29 (Tel, 23rd Sept '09)
Best offer as % of mean: 45.25% (Paul, 15th Sept '09)

Highest 11-box offer: £18,022 (Tracey, 1st Oct '09)
Best 3rd offer board average: £48,096.36 (Tracey, 1st Oct '09)
Best offer as % of mean: 63.54% (Paul, 15th Sept '09)

Highest 8-box offer: £26,022 (Tracey, 1st Oct '09)
Best 4th offer board average: £65,126.25 (Tracey, 1st Oct '09)
Best offer as % of mean: 74.07% (Shaun, 6th Sept '09)

Highest 5-box offer: £50,000 (Des, 25th Aug '09)
Best 5th offer board average: £74,020.02 (Des, 25th Aug '09)
Best offer as % of mean: 93.74% (Jim, 4th Sept '09)

Highest 2-box offer: £33,500 (Suzi, 29th Sept '09)
Best 6th offer board average: £55,000 (Suzi, 29th Sept '09)
Best offer as % of mean: 94.55% (Mary, 7th Oct '09)

I was surprised to see Shaun had the most generous 8-box offer (in terms of the mean).

By the way, are the stats including proveout offers? I assume they're only including in-play ones...?

Yes, just in-play offers are included - I think it says that up the top somewhere... although some very low joke offers are included, but they won't overly affect the averages.

I was surprised by Shaun receiving the highest 8-box offer in terms of % to the mean too. As you will know, he was offered £25,000 with 50k, 75k and 100k left with 3 mid-reds, a pound and a penny. It was a pretty stable board so the offer needed to be good. Curiously, he accepted the generous offer only to then take a far less generous gamble to ultimately end up with £10,000!