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James1978

PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2007 3:35 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: The fatal 20th box

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
Location: Darlington, NE England
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I was wondering how many times the 20th box selected has ruined someone's game? It seems to happen very regularly - 1p Trevor's is the prime example, but there have been lots of others recently, such as 1p Tony, Julian, Lee etc. Conversely, it has also been the saviour when someone has previously dealt, such as original Julie or Dave Show 56, but for this I want to imagine they are all still playing!

Might have to do stats going through each game, and what the criteria is for it (for instance, Chantelle hit the highest amount for her 20th box, but it didn't ruin her game as such)!

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James1978

PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2007 11:20 am    Author: James1978    Post subject:

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
Location: Darlington, NE England
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What I think I'll base the criteria on is:

1. Picking the highest amount of the three remaining.
2. Would the outcome of the game been significantly different (better) if the contestant had picked the other remaining box on the wings?

For instance, picking the highest of three rubbish blues won't significantly change the game's outcome!

I'll be working on it today....

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James1978

PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2007 11:36 am    Author: James1978    Post subject:

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
Location: Darlington, NE England
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1. Rachel
2. Dilys
3. Paul
4. Adrienne
5. Player 14
6. Len
7. Sam
8. Becky
9. Raj
10. James
11. Eddie
12. Kai
13. Jason
14. Jeff
15. Chris
16. Simon
17. Michael C
18. Dave Woollin
19. Pat
20. Jenna
21. Arlette
22. Vaughan


That's the games from Series 1 gone through - one in three had a fatal 20th box (imagining all the contestants had not already dealt), which seems about right really. The first 3 blue wins are included in there incredibly, and it will be interesting to see if the pattern holds for later series!

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James1978

PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2007 12:15 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject:

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
Location: Darlington, NE England
Warnings: 0
Continuing with series 2:

23. Terry
24. Julie
25. Garvan
26. Ann
27. Gerry
28. Marie
29. Linda
30. Chris
31. Benita
32. Russell
33. Trevor :(
34. Mike
35. Norma
36. Lisa
37. Aaron
38. Janet
39. Jim H
40. J.T.
41. Maxine
42. Gabrielle
43. James
44. Clare
45. Richard
46. Francesca
47. Sandy
48. Emma D
49. Dave W
50. Susie
51. Raj
52. Lofty
53. Rich
54. Stevie
55. Jainie
56. Becca
57. Louise
58. Carlton
59. Daz
60. Jo
61. Teresa
62. Ron (possibly)
63. Chrissie
64. Frank
65. Eileen
66. Shirley
67. Ashok
68. Linda E
69. Lynda B


Grand total 69 from 234 games - rate has dropped slightly. Of course it shouldn't be 1 in 3, as even though you have that chance of taking out the higehst remaining number, that is reduced by not including games like Dave Chesseman's or Julia's where they had 3 reds that were close to each other in value.

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James1978

PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2007 2:56 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject:

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
Location: Darlington, NE England
Warnings: 0
To continue:

70. Alan (unbelievably the first one is season 2 was the 23rd game!)
71. Ken (debatable, but there's been such a dearth!)
72. Jeff
73. Elizabeth
74. Jane
75. Howard
76. Helen
77. Mary
78. Peter
79. Rachael
80. Madeleine
81. Shahid
82. Maggie
83. Sue
84. Wrighty
85. Jenny
86. Joey
87. Neil
88. Lucy
89. Frank
90. Conor
91. Jasmine
92. Ryan
93. Stella
94. Peg
95. Jane
96. Tony
97. Tim
98. Rachel
99. Darren
100. Lee
101. Julian
102. Gus


So I make it 102 out of 406 games - almost exactly 1 in 4...that took some doing. You'll have to work it out yourself as to how many of them were still playing though! :)

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daniel4389

PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2007 3:04 pm    Author: daniel4389    Post subject:

Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2006 10:36 pm
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James1978 wrote:
So I make it 102 out of 406 games - almost exactly 1 in 4...that took some doing. You'll have to work it out yourself as to how many of them were still playing though! :)


I make it 36...which is actually fewer than I was expecting! :shock:

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James1978

PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2007 3:50 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject:

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
Location: Darlington, NE England
Warnings: 0
Games like Ken's and Ron's are debatable becuase they would probably have no-dealt the final offer and won the same as they did even if they'd taken out the smaller number of the three remaining...my head hurts! :)

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cookie_monster

PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2007 10:38 pm    Author: cookie_monster    Post subject:
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Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 8:50 pm
Location: Chicken Tikka Masalalalalala
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Oh my word - that is shocking stats... But I supose that that is when a player is concentrating least and is most worried. Particularly Trevor. -if they are leftwith 2 teeny amounts and one large one :?

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rico7

PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2007 10:45 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject:
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Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 10:36 am
Location: Stratford-upon-avon, Warwickshire
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What's interesting about these stats is that it seems that a number of us, including me, expected the figure to be significantly higher. Perhaps it's just that the occasions that Box 20 had the highest number of the remaining three picked were the most memorable, obviously Trevor 1p
will never be forgotten for one!


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Power5

PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2007 11:01 pm    Author: Power5    Post subject:
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Joined: Fri Feb 24, 2006 10:04 pm
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What is interesting to discover is that only three players have ever lost the £250,000 at the 20th box while still in active play!

They were 1p Trevor (of course), Garvan (who won £5,000) and Shirley (who then dealt for £20,000 but had £50,000 in her box). So Trevor is the only player to take it out and leave two blues.

Other players to take out a power 5 at the 20th box in active play leaving two blues:

£75,000 - James (Dec 05)
£35,000 - Tony (Feb 07)
£35,000 - Ann (Jan 06)
£35,000 - Simon (Dec 05)

So a really disastrous 20th box is in fact pretty rare!

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Oh and five others, guess I need to update this!


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James1978

PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:39 am    Author: James1978    Post subject:

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
Location: Darlington, NE England
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Julian and Lee were only left with £1,000 which is still rubbish if you've just taken out £100k or £75k! :)

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little_monster

PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2007 9:56 pm    Author: little_monster    Post subject:

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Chantelle surely gets in there with her £35k/£75k and 1p final three...then taking out the £75k in thr 20th box?


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James1978

PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2007 10:30 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject:

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
Location: Darlington, NE England
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I thought about it, but as she still won £35k, I don't think it had an adverse effect on her game - as surely she'd have no-dealt on £75k/£35k and won the £35k that way, except it would have been an OBW instead of an OPW, so in a way it was sort of good that she took out the £75k! :)

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