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Mental Mickey

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2007 11:47 am    Author: Mental Mickey    Post subject: Something that is keeping me awake at night - anyone help?
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I was wondering whether there are any figures for all the games so far as to when the optimum time to deal was for the highest amount of money.

There must have been games when the first or second offer was the highest ever on the table, but how many? How many times has the third offer been the largest payout on offer? How about the other rounds? And how many games has there been when to get the highest offer would have meant going all the way to the end and opening their box?

I suppose all these "swaps" will ruin the sums, but does anyone know out of the near-400 shows to date which round statistically is the best round to deal at and produces the highest offer?

It keeps me awake at night. :ponder:

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daniel4389

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2007 11:50 am    Author: daniel4389    Post subject:

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I think there've been fourteen games in which the first offer was the highest:

Kai
Vanessa (Although she had more in her box, which she went on to win)
Mike (1)
Max (2)
Tan
Teresa (Although the first and third offers were the same)
Giorgio
Howard
Anna-Marie (First and second offers were the same)
Lucy (3)
VENTRESS (First and second offers were the same)
Elton
Simon (4) (First and second offers were the same)
Gloria

The fifth offer has been the best time to go in the most games, I think. And I'm sure someone else will have the rest of the stats!

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Mental Mickey

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2007 12:39 pm    Author: Mental Mickey    Post subject:
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Thanks Dan. I was thinking the fourth offer myself as probably the best time to go. I'm surprised there has been as many as fourteen games where the first offer was the best or joint-best offer on the board, which just goes to show I guess that calling it a day at the first or second offer is not as stupid as it might first appear. :shock:

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daniel4389

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2007 12:43 pm    Author: daniel4389    Post subject:

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Also worth nothing that out of those fourteen, only Kai, Max and Lucy went on to take another Deal...everyone else went to the end! Which suggests that high early offers do encourage people to chase their losses all the way to the end. :?

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Mental Mickey

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2007 12:58 pm    Author: Mental Mickey    Post subject:
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I'm starting to go through all the games so far. I've worked through the first two months up to the end of 2005:

31/10/05 Lynn – 6th Round
01/11/05 Mark – 6th Round
02/11/05 Anita – 5th Round
03/11/05 Rachel – 6th Round
04/11/05 Haleem – Should have opened box
05/11/05 Oli – 3rd Round
07/11/05 Dilys – 5th Round
08/11/05 Paul – 5th Round
09/11/05 Shell – Should have opened box
10/11/05 Natalie – Should have opened box (contained £250K)
11/11/05 Maurice – 6th Round (post-deal hypothetical offer)
12/11/05 Lyndsey – 6th Round (post-deal hypothetical offer)
14/11/05 Adrienne – 5th Round (post-deal hypothetical offer)
15/11/05 Madie – 5th Round
16/11/05 Jan – 6th Round (post-deal hypothetical offer)
17/11/05 Jayne – 5th Round
18/11/05 Jennifer – 6th Round
19/11/05 Elaine B - 6th Round (post-deal hypothetical offer)
21/11/05 Leigh – 3rd Round
22/11/05 Len – 5th Round
23/11/05 Lisa – 5th Round
24/11/05 Mally - Should have opened box (contained £250K)
25/11/05 Trevor – 5th Round
26/11/05 Sam – 4th Round
28/11/05 Becky – 3rd Round
29/11/05 Raj – 2nd Round
30/11/05 Andy K – 5th Round
01/12/05 Rita – Should have opened box
02/12/05 James – 5th Round
03/12/05 John – Should have opened box
05/12/05 Hayley - 6th Round (post-deal hypothetical offer)
06/12/05 Eddie – 5th Round
07/12/05 Sara - 6th Round (post-deal hypothetical offer)
08/12/05 Tina – 4th Round
09/12/05 Kai – 1st Round
10/12/05 Elaine H – Should have opened box
12/12/05 Audrey – 6th Round
13/12/05 Rob – 6th Round
14/12/05 Jo – Should have opened box
15/12/05 Jason – 5th Round (post-deal hypothetical offer)
16/12/05 Helen – Should have opened box
17/12/05 Jeff – 5th Round
19/12/05 Karen – 5th Round (post-deal hypothetical offer)
20/12/05 Mary-Ann – 6th Round (post-deal hypothetical offer)
21/12/05 Chris - 5th Round (post-deal hypothetical offer)
22/12/05 Lee - 6th Round (post-deal hypothetical offer)
23/12/05 Simon – 4th Round
26/12/05 Angela – 3rd Round
27/12/05 Andy B – 5th Round
28/12/05 Michael C – 5th Round
29/12/05 Louise – 5th Round
30/12/05 Max - 6th Round (post-deal hypothetical offer)


So far it looks like Dan is right and round five or six is probably the best time to go. The only person in the first two months of shows who should have gone in round one was Kai, and the only person who should have gone in round two was Raj, who went on to win 10p. Only nine people would have had to have gone all the way to the end and open their box to get the best deal. I shall try now and work through all the other games just to see what the end results are! :-)

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MisterAl

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2007 1:24 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject:
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Of the 391 games broadcast so far, the most money could have been won by accepting:

Offer 1: 13 games (3.3% of games)
Offer 2: 32 games (8.2% of games)
Offer 3: 45 games (11.5% of games)
Offer 4: 52 games (13.3% of games)
Offer 5: 93 games (23.8% of games)
Offer 6: 68 games (17.4% of games)
their own box: 88 games (22.5% of games)

Where the highest amount could have been gained at more than one stage of the game -- usually due to two offers being equal -- then I've counted the earliest one here. Mainly because that's how my Excel formula happened to do it and it's not worth fiddling about to make it do anything else...


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Mental Mickey

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2007 1:33 pm    Author: Mental Mickey    Post subject:
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Thanks MisterAl.

Exactly what I was looking for and saves me the trouble of going through all 391 games myself to reach the same conclusions. :-D

It looks like the game favours a fifth round deal then, but only just, as going to the end regardless is almost as good an option percentage-wise.

Looked at another way and rounding up or down a fair bit, it means that almost 25% of players should consider dealing at round three or earlier, almost 25% would be better off going to the end and the remaining 50% should deal somewhere between rounds four and six. Hmm. ;)

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daniel4389

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2007 4:21 pm    Author: daniel4389    Post subject:

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Interesting stats, thanks MisterAl. Just out of interest, how have you classed games like Valerie's? (She went to the end and got an OPW by swapping her 10p box for £10,000, but her highest offer was her second.)

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MisterAl

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2007 11:10 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject:
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Box swaps haven't been taken into consideration because not every player has had the chance to swap (at least, we've not seen that), so I couldn't include 'swap the final box' as an option.

Therefore Valerie's game has been recorded as being one where she should have accepted the Round 2 offer. Not a perfect system I'll admit, but probably good enough to illustrate the overall trends.


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daniel4389

PostPosted: Sun Feb 25, 2007 11:33 pm    Author: daniel4389    Post subject:

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Hahah...Kay misses the "First offer was the highest" club by just £1. :shock:

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rico7

PostPosted: Mon Feb 26, 2007 5:47 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject: Re: Something that is keeping me awake at night - anyone hel
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Mental Mickey wrote:
I was wondering whether there are any figures for all the games so far as to when the optimum time to deal was for the highest amount of money.

A while back I did an analysis of the first 362 shows (excluding Show 312 not aired) of the UK version of Deal Or No Deal. The banker's offer increased from the 8 box stage to the 5 box stage exactly 228 times, 63.15% (hypothetical post deal offers included), and from the 5 box stage to the last two boxes, 149 times 41.3% (hypothetical post deal offers included). Dealing at the 5th offer has been the optimum time to deal in general terms. It seems to give you the best chance of achieving an OPW, beating the banker. EDIT: Darren's show today was yet another
OPW for the 5th Offer in his win over the banker of £42,000! :D


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