Hi everyone,

With the introduction of the Offer Button to Deal or No Deal, I thought it'd be interesting to keep a record of stats relating to its usage and influence on games.

Everything can be accessed from the index link below, each opening as a document on Google Docs.
This features stats / data for each month, also including an overall breakdown for all shows since the button's introduction on 29th September 2014.

Deal or No Deal - Offer Button Stats & Data - Index


The following data has been collected for each player (when applicable):

• Player guesses
• Actual offers
• Guess margin (how far the player is in/out from the required guess band)
• Min / max bands (guess %)
• Guess range (max takeaway min)
• Guess difference (how far the guess is to the actual offer)

• Accuracy % (relative to the actual offer)
• Is the button Used?
• Time used (e.g. 6-box, 4-box, 3-box)
• How much the button increase / decrease the previous offer (+/- £)
• Does the button result in a deal?

It then forms the main basis of the stats, which may be more visually interesting:

• Average offers
• Ave max / min bands
• Predictions
• Guess differences
• Under, perfect & over guesses

• Overall, Male & Female summaries
• Button usage timings
• Button impact (on offers)

Feel free to comment and discuss here. I personally think the button is an interesting addition to the show, as it allows an extra element of strategy.
Hopefully all this is easy enough to follow! But if you have any questions or suggestions, please let me know.

Monthly updates will be posted as new replies to this thread.


Enjoy,
OneBoxGame

October 2014 Summary
Stats | Data

*As September saw the introduction of the Offer Button, the October stats include the 2 shows broadcast on the 29th / 30th September.


Accuracy:

-50% of players gained the button in their games (13 each).

-Longest incorrect streak: 5 shows (ave. accuracy: 71.5%).
-Longest correct streak: 6 shows (ave. accuracy: 92.9%).

-75% of male players over-guessed the banker's opening offer (9 of 12).
-50% of female players under-guessed (7 of 14).

-Highest accuracy: 98.3%
-Lowest accuracy: 28.6%

-If the offer was £8,000 or above, 82% of players gained the button (9 of 11).
-If the offer was below £8,000, 27% of players gained the button (4 of 15).

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Usage:

-On average, male players tended to use the button 1 Box later on than females.
-36% of players used the button at 3-box (4 of 11).
-No player used the button earlier than 7-box.

-86% of players dealt when the button increased their previous offer £3,000 or above (6 of 7).
-No player dealt when the button decreased their previous offer (0 of 2).
-Jan pressed the button at 5-box, even though it was time for an offer anyway! Since it was invalid, this has been recorded as a non-usage.


Regards,
OneBoxGame

November 2014 Summary
Stats | Data

The index now features an overall summary.

Note: New columns have been added to track the previous offer compared to the offer received after pressing the button.
These have been named "Pre Offer" and "Btn Offer". The stats table now includes averages of both these columns.


Accuracy:

-35% of players gained the button in their games (7 of 20).

-Longest incorrect streak: 5 shows (ave. accuracy: 68.6%).
-Longest correct streak: 2 shows (2 occasions).

-70% of female players under-guessed (7 of 10).

-Perfect guesses: 2 (Malcolm, Mike).
-Lee's guess was the first to be within 0% of the opening offer (£2,000 guess to an £1,000 actual offer).

-Highest opening offer: £10,000 (new highest).
-Lowest opening offer: £750 (equal lowest).

-If the offer was £8,000 or above, 57% of players gained the button (4 of 7).
-If the offer was below £8,000, 23% of players gained the button (3 of 13).

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Usage:

-On average, the button was used slightly earlier than the games in October.
-50% of players used the button at 4-box or 3-box.
-Malcolm used the button at 9-box, which is the earliest so far.
-The button was used once on a descending game (where it reduced the offer by 1/3).

-Although relatively low in value, William used the button to increase his previous offer by 335% (£230 to £1,000).
-In November, the button increased previous offers by 31%.

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Overall: (see summary)

-The Banker's opening offer is yet to be guessed when over £6,000 and less than £8,000.
-£8,500 has been offered 6 times, the most frequent of any amount offered so far.

-Highest opening offer: £10,000
-Lowest opening offer: £750 (2 occasions).

-No player has dealt when the button has reduced their previous offer (0 of 3).
-Overall, the button has increased previous offers by 56%.

-Sum of Previous Offers: £165,367
-Sum of Button Offers: £258,602
-Highest increase from previous offer: £25,000 (Iris, Bill).

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Highest Button Offers:

3-box: £26,000 +116.7% - (Paul, 20-Oct-14)
4-box: £80,000 +45.5% - (Bill, 31-Oct-14)
6-box: £45,000 +125.0% - (Iris, 21-Oct-14)
7-box: £13,000 +44.4% - (Julie, 01-Oct-14)*
9-box: £6,000 +50.0% - (Malcolm, 05-Nov-14)*


Lowest Button Offers:

3-box: £726 -75.8% - (Sharman, 29-Oct-14)
4-box: £3,900 +11.4% - (Ernie, 02-Oct-14)
6-box: £700 -87.9% - (Susan, 12-Oct-14)
7-box: £13,000 +44.4% - (Julie, 01-Oct-14)*
9-box: £6,000 +50.0% - (Malcolm, 05-Nov-14)*

*So far, the button has been used once each at 7-box and 9-box, hence both values feature in the highest & lowest lists.


Enjoy!
OneBoxGame

Great work. I'll comment/analyse more in the morning (or afternoon ) when I'm not shattered...but really, sterling stuff. Nice job!

Thanks, it's much appreciated!

Great stuff.

It's also worth noting that Mike was the first plauer to earn the offer button by but not use it at all.

Thanks for the comment. You're quite right in Mike being the first to never physically press the button.

I thought it'd be logical to only record button usage when it's in live play. The main reason is because the column for dealing the button must have a Y/N value (for the calculations to work). If a player has already dealt, they can't answer the question for the offers that follow.

Based on this, I've recorded two other instances of non-usage:

Andy (07-Oct-14): Used button after dealing at £18,500.
Jan (23-Oct-14): Invalid usage at 5-box.

December 2014 Summary
Stats | Data

The index now features an overall summary up to the end of December.

Note: An error has been corrected for the stat calculating the % of players who no deal the button offer.


Accuracy:

-Only 16% of players gained the button in their games (3 of 19), by far the lowest so far.

-The 3 correct guesses all had a guess difference of £500 (from the actual offer).

-Longest incorrect streak: 10 shows (ave. accuracy: 66.7%).
-Longest correct streak: 2 shows.

-The split between under/over guessing was almost 50/50.
-Unsurprisingly there were no perfect guesses.

-Steff's guess was the 2nd to be within 0% of the opening offer (£7,850 guess to a £3,500 actual offer).
-At £4,350, this was also the largest guess difference from the actual offer.

-Highest opening offer: £12,000 (new highest).
-Lowest opening offer: £1,000.

-In the Christmas specials, the Banker allowed the Offer Button to be guessed after an incorrect opening offer prediction.
-This was the case with Sue's game (#2686) at 11-box, which was another incorrect guess.
-Because of the downside of the Banker looking in their box, the other 3 players declined the chance for a 2nd guess.

-For the purpose of these stats, and comparison purposes, guesses are only recorded for the opening offer.

----------------------------------

Usage:

-The button was used and led to a deal on all 3 occasions.
-Previous offers were increased by 50%

(Not enough data for further analysis).

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Overall: (see summary)

-Overall, 35% of players have gained the button in their games (23 of 65).

-The Banker's opening offer is yet to be guessed when:

• Over £1,000 and less than £3,000.
• Over £3,200 and less than £5,000.
• Over £6,000 and less than £7,000.

-Longest incorrect streak: 10 shows (#2679 to #2688).
-Longest correct streak: 6 shows (#2640 to #2645).

-Pam (show #2673) is the only player to gain the button from an offer greater than £6,000 and less than £8,000.

-£8,000 has been offered 7 times, and £8,500 6 times.

-35% of opening offers have been £8,000 or higher (23 of 65).
-When the actual offer is £8,000 or higher, 57% of players gained the button (13 of 23).

-48% of opening offers have been between £4,000 and £8,000 (31 of 65).
-Only 8 of 31 players have gained the button from this range (26%).

-Highest opening offer: £12,000
-Lowest opening offer: £750 (2 occasions).


-70% of male players have accepted the button offer (7 of 10).
-50% of female players have declined the button offer (5 of 10).

-Sum of Previous Offers: £203,867
-Sum of Button Offers: £316,602

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Highest Button Offers:

3-box: £26,000 +116.7% - (Paul, 20-Oct-14)
4-box: £80,000 +45.5% - (Bill, 31-Oct-14)
6-box: £45,000 +125.0% - (Iris, 21-Oct-14)
7-box: £18,000 +63.6% - (Ritchie, 04-Dec-14) NEW
9-box: £6,000 +50.0% - (Malcolm, 05-Nov-14)*


Lowest Button Offers:

3-box: £726 -75.8% - (Sharman, 29-Oct-14)
4-box: £3,900 +11.4% - (Ernie, 02-Oct-14)
6-box: £700 -87.9% - (Susan, 12-Oct-14)
7-box: £13,000 +44.4% - (Julie, 01-Oct-14)
9-box: £6,000 +50.0% - (Malcolm, 05-Nov-14)*

*So far, the button has been used once each at 9-box, hence both values feature in the highest & lowest lists.


Enjoy!
OneBoxGame

January 2015 Summary
Stats | Data

The index now features an overall summary up to the end of January.


Accuracy:

-55% of players gained the button in their games (11 of 20).

-Longest incorrect streak: 4 shows (ave. accuracy: 72.2%).
-Longest correct streak: 7 shows (ave. accuracy: 94.6%). NEW RECORD!

-80% of male players over guessed (8 of 10).

-With a guess difference of just £4, Connor's prediction of £13,500 is the 4th most accurate so far.
-This is also the most accurate a player has been without making a perfect guess. NEW RECORD!

-Perfect guesses: 1 (Hollie, £6,500).

-Highest opening offer: £13,496 NEW HIGHEST!
-Lowest opening offer: £750

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Usage:

-The button was used in 100% of times where it was gained (11 of 11).
-Overall, previous offers were increased by 32%

-On average, female players tended to use the button 2 Boxes later on than males.
-Dot was the only player to use the button earlier than 6-box.

-In all 11 opportunities, the button was used twice on descending games (18%).

NEW RECORDS!
-Dot used the button at 10-box, so far the earliest it has been pressed to date.
-In Michele's game, the button offer was £9,000 less than her previous offer (£15,000). This is the biggest drop so far.
-Michelle was also the first player to deal when the button offer is less than the previous offer.

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Overall: (see summary)

-Overall, 40% of players have gained the button in their games (34 of 85).

-The Banker's opening offer is yet to be guessed when: Over £2,000 and less than £3,000.

-Longest incorrect streak: 10 shows (#2679 to #2688).
-Longest correct streak: 7 shows (#2694 to #2700).

-When the actual offer is less than £3,000, 21% of players gained the button (4 of 19).

-Highest opening offer: £13,496
-Lowest opening offer: £750 (3 occasions).


-16% of players have pressed the button on a descending game (5 of 31).
-Of these 5 players, one has dealt.
-So far, 100% of male players have pressed the button on an ascending game (when the button increases their previous offer).

-There is about a 50/50 split of players who accept / decline their button offer.

-Only 1 player has dealt the offer at 3-box ( 1 of 8 ).

-When the button increases their previous offer £3,000 or above, 82% of all players have dealt (14 of 17).
-When this is less than £3,000, 14% of all players have dealt (2 of 14).

-Sum of Previous Offers: £304,892
-Sum of Button Offers: £450,001


Enjoy!
OneBoxGame

P.S. You may wonder why my previous post (December) was using a different account (OneBoxGame2).
My apologies as I didn't realise I'd logged in as this, which is my old account here! All future updates will be made with this account (oneboxgame7).

February 2015 Summary
Stats | Data

Better late then never...

The index now features an overall summary up to the end of February (Stats | Data).

Note: I've added a few changes (also updated for previous months):

-A new "Margin" column has been added to the data tables. This calculates how far the player was in / out from the required guess band (incorrect guesses have a negative value).
-Also, I've added a field to calculate the average margin for each data set.

-Wider spacing of the rows to make the data easier to read.
-Added a key to the stats to explain abbreviations used (e.g. Med. = Median).


Accuracy:

-40% of players gained the button in their games (6 of 15).

-Kelly was the only female player to be within the 10% guess band.

-In show #2725, the Banker made a "clerical error" by leaving the previous game's opening offer inside the canister.
This meant the Banker gave Chloe the button, even though her guess was £100 out from the required band.

-Perfect guesses: 2 (Tony, Conrad).

-Highest opening offer: £11,000
-Lowest opening offer: £1,500

-No player made a correct guess when the opening offer was less then £5,500.

-Best guess margin (correct): £1,000 (Conrad).
-Worst guess margin (incorrect): £500 (Charlie, Gwen).

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Usage:

-100% of players chose to press the button when it was gained (6 of 6).
-Overall, as was the case in January, previous offers were increased by 32%

-There was a fairly even split of usage timings.
-Compton became the 2nd player to use the button at 10-box.

-50% of players chose to deal the button offer (3 of 6).

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Overall: (see summary Stats | Data).

-Continuing the trend, 2/5 of players have gained the button in their games (40 of 100).

-The Banker's opening offer has only been guessed 1/13 when over £1,000 and less than £3,000.
-Only 29% of players have made a correct guess when the offer is or between £8,000 and £7,000 (6 of 21).

-These have been 4 guesses "on the wire" of the band (i.e. at the exact min/max guess value).


Guess Margins:
Smallest incorrect margin:
£25 (Matt, show #2637).

Largest incorrect margin:
£4,000 (Steff, show #2676).

Smallest correct margin (greater than £0):
£7.50 (Andrew, show #2708).

Largest correct margin (greater than £0):
£1,345.60 (Connor, show #2703).


-Interestingly, both players who pressed the button at 10-box have dealt the resulting button offer.

-84% of players have pressed the button at 6-box or later (31 of 37).

-Average button offer increase: £4,280.

-Sum of Previous Offers: £346,841
-Sum of Button Offers: £505,201


Enjoy!
OneBoxGame

(Stand by, the March stats will follow soon)...

Not surprising that both 10 box button offers were dealt, as both of the players who used it then probably would've dealt their 3rd offer otherwise and they didn't want to be goaded to going deep into the game.

Weirdly enough, while plenty of contestants have dealt at 8 box with the button in play (mostly from March ), no one has dealt at 11 or 5 box with the button still in play. That's mostly because people that aren't comfortable going past 5 box almost always use the button at 7 or 6 box.

Also, the only other scenario we have yet to see with the button is someone using it before 11 box. The only scenario I could conceivably see that happening, though, is if a player gets a generous 2nd offer and then finds two blues and wants to capitalize on it.

Yeah, the usage timings are often a direct influence on the state of the board. Only 3 players have pressed the button earlier than 7-box, and 3/8 press it at 6-box.

I guess as the board becomes more volatile later on, people are less willing to take the risk, even to open a single box. Although the stats reveal those who press the button later, generally receive a higher increase (you'd expect this if there's a big sum still in play). For example at 4-box, the average offer increase is just over £6,000, higher than at any other usage point.

March 2015 Summary
Stats | Data

The index now features an overall summary up to the end of March (Stats | Data).

Note: Like with previous months, all stats exclude the Double Trouble specials.
As more of these shows are aired, I may create a separate post for them (in reply to this).


Accuracy:

-50% of players gained the button in their games (9 of 18).

-Overall, 61% of players over guessed (11 of 18).

-Perfect guesses: 4 (Laura, Christine, Anthony & Sam).

-This is the most perfect guesses in a month so far. NEW RECORD!
-More players made a perfect guess than predicting less than the Banker's opening offer. NEW RECORD!
-2 of the prefect guesses were for £8,000.

-Remarkably, considering there's not been 2 in a row previously...
The month concluded with 3 consecutive perfect guesses (shows #2744 to #2746). NEW RECORD!

-Highest opening offer: £10,000
-Lowest opening offer: £1,300

-The two highest opening offers in March came in the first two shows (£10,000 & £9,500 respectively).

-Best guess margin (correct): £800 (Laura, Sam).
-Worst guess margin (incorrect): £3,032.83 (Sheikh).

-Average correct margin: £409
-Average incorrect margin: £745

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Usage:

-Only 56% of players decided to press the button when it was gained (5 of 9).
-By chance, this includes 2 of the players who made perfect guesses!

-At 4 in total, this is the most players in a month to not use the button in live play. NEW RECORD!

-Lee (show #2736) was the first player to not use the button since Mike in November last year (show #2668).
-This broke a 23 game streak of players who pressed the button when gained (spanning 62 shows).

-Overall, previous offers were increased by a measly 0.8%

-Only 1 male player pressed the button (Maurice), which resulted in a deal.
-No one pressed the button earlier than 7-box, or later than 6-box.

-80% of players chose to deal the button offer (4 of 5).
-Only Laura (show #2734) chose to decline the button offer, being halved to £4,000.

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Overall: (see summary Stats | Data).



After an initial decline in Nov / Dec, it seems players are now becoming more accurate with their predictions.


1/3 of players who've made a perfect guess have not pressed the button.

Duration between each perfect guess:

#1 - Malcolm - £5,500 (29 shows)
#2 - Mike - £1,000 (16 shows)
#3 - Hollie - £6,500 (30 shows)
#4 - Tony - £5,500 (13 shows)
#5 - Conrad - £10,000 (10 shows)
#6 - Laura - £8,000 (8 shows)
#7 - Christine - £6,800 (10 shows)
#8 - Anthony - £2,500 (1 show)
#9 - Sam - £8,000 (1 show)

-On average, there are 13 games between each perfect guess.
-Average perfect guess amount: £5,978
-Average opening offer: £5,874


-Sum of Previous Offers: £382,341
-Sum of Button Offers: £541,001


Enjoy!
OneBoxGame