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psychokiller

PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 3:55 pm    Author: psychokiller    Post subject: Improbable DOND events
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If anyone is interested, here are some probabilities for some of the more unusual and unlikely events we have seen on the show.


Top 3 or Bottom 3 at 3-box (Kirsty and Laurence) - 1 in 1,540.


^^Same odds as removing them in the first 3 boxes (achieved only by James in March 2006 with the three pence amounts). Honourable mentions go to Donna (December 2006), Rachel (June 2009) and Tracey (October 2009) for removing the £250, £500 and £750 in the first 3 boxes.


Top 4 at 4-box (Daniel) - 1 in 7,315. We also saw the lowest 4 reds at 4-box once, achieved by Emma in 2008.


Speaking of Emma...


Taking the Banker's P5 in consecutive boxes from 21-box - 1 in 20,349.


Taking four of either Power 5 in the first 4 boxes (Alan/Marcus/Lisa) - 1 in 1,463.


Taking the Top or Bottom 3 in the opening round (Buzz/Angela/Nalini/numerous others) - 1 in 154. (Taking them in the first 4, like Flo did recently, is 1 in 385).


Each opening round is a 1 in 26,334 chance, some notable examples include Betty (March 2007) taking the 5 highest blues and Alex (January 2009) taking the 5 lowest reds. 'Mad Hatter' Paul (July 2006) took 1p, £1,000, 10p, £3,000 and 50p in that exact order and Nalini (November 2006) took the 1p, 10p, 50p and £100k and £250k out (but not in that order).


Taking out the Power 5 in consecutive boxes from:


*19-box (Ottis) - 1 in 11,628.


*17-box (Jay) - 1 in 6,188.


*15-box (Snowy) - 1 in 3,003.


Taking the lowest 6 from 14-box (£65k James) - 1 in 3,003.


Taking the highest 5 from 13-box (Show 997 Chris) - 1 in 1,287.


And what do those two contestants have in common ?


Having an 8-box of one colour - 1 in 1,938.


^^Same as taking 8 blues/reds in a row from the start (Matt).


Having a 9-box of one colour (Mark) - 55 in 497,420, or 1 in 9,044.


Having a 10:1 split at 11-box (Mark again) - 121 in 705,432, or 1 in 5,830.


Having an 8-box consisting of 8 of the lowest 10 amounts (Mark again !) - 45 in 319,770, or 1 in 7,106.


Keeping the Top 9 in play until 12-box (Tegen) - 1 in 2,261.


Keeping the Top 8 in play until 9-box (Brenda) - 1 in 35,530.


Keeping the Top 10 in play until 14-box (Darren/Smah/Roopa) - 1 in 646.


Taking the 8 reds left in a row from 12-box (1p Nick) - 1 in 495.


Taking the 8 reds left in a row from 13-box (Carol) - 1 in 1,287.


Taking the 9 blues left in a row from 11-box (Keran) - 1 in 55.


Keeping the Power 5 in play to:


*8-box (Brenda/Stella/Daniel/Colleen/Tracey/Charlie) - 1 in 470.25.


*7-box (Brenda/Stella/Daniel) - 1 in 1,254.


*6-box (Daniel) - 1 in 4,389.


Having £10k guaranteed (Brenda/Balbina/Jade/Michael) or having £100 as maximum (Nikki/Kelly) at 5-box - 1 in 470.5.


Having £15k guaranteed (Amy) or £50 as maximum (Daphne) at 5-box - 1 in 1,254.


Keeping the bottom 6 in play until 9-box (13p Debbie) - 1 in 888.25.


Keeping the top 7 in play until 11-box (Wilf) - 1 in 516.8. (Wilf actually took the top 7 to 10-box... a 1 in 1,421.5 chance).



Phew... think that will do for now. If I can remember more I'll post them, but just look at that for now.

Thanks must be given to matt26, MisterAl, KP and Simon F for providing some of these stats elsewhere.

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psychokiller

PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 9:55 pm    Author: psychokiller    Post subject: Re: Improbable DOND events
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Just a few more for now:


Keeping the top or bottom 3 in play at 4-box but having neither in your box (so the last 3 boxes on the wings all contain the top/bottom 3) - 1 in 1,330.

^^1p Nick achieved this with, obviously, the three pence amounts and Christmas Star Ian did it with the top 3 (having only £3,000 in the box). Honourable mention to Big Mike from last month, who kept the three highest blues on the wings at 4-box with 50p in his own.


Having a 4-box consisting of 4 of the Power 5 (£250k Suzanne) - 1 in 1,463.


Having £5k guaranteed at the squashdown (Nick D) - 1 in 888.25.


2:10 board split at 12-box (£100 John/Mark/Julia) - 1 in 1,068.


1:9 board split at 10-box (Sheran/Tracey/Danielle/De) - the same, 1 in 1,068.


Having a specific amount in a row 4 times (Michaela/Joanne/James) - 1 in 234,256.


The same amount being on the table 5 times in a row (£50 in March 2011) - 1 in 5,153,632.


The same final 2 in consecutive shows (August 2009, £10 and £50k) - 1 in 53,361.

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psychokiller

PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2012 7:55 pm    Author: psychokiller    Post subject: Re: Improbable DOND events
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We can now add Lamin's achievements to this list -

Taking 10 blues in a row from 18-box with all 11 in play - 1 in 3,978. (Hitting all 11 would have been a 1 in 31,824 shot).


Taking 11 from the bottom 12 at 19-box - 1 in 6,298.

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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 5:16 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: Improbable DOND events
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You should add what Jeff did today. The odds of taking out the lowest sums in order from 8 box to 2 box AND having the higher sum in his box is 1/(8*7*6*5*4*3*2) or 1 in 40,320. :shock: :shock: :shock:

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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 12:25 am    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: Improbable DOND events
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Yesturday on Affari Tuoi, a game occurred that would make many think that version of the show is rigged. The contestant took out 9 blues in a row in her first 9 picks, a 1 in 16,796 chance. :smt103 :-D However, after that, her game took an UNBELIEVABLE turn for the worst. She took out 5 reds and Pacco X after that, but she managed to keep the Top 3 amounts in play to 5 box. However, she then took out all 3 of them in the final round, a 1 in 1140 chance BY ITSELF. sdgthju :cry: She then ended up having the one remaining blue in her box, and thanks to the Banker offering her SWAPS all throughout the serious stages of the game, she couldn't possibly avoid this mind-boggling turn of events. :cry: :smt011 :smt019 The odds of a game like the one she had, in which she took out 9 blues in a row, avoided the Top 3 to 5 box and took them out in the final round, AND had the one remaining blue in her box is
1 in 22,170,720 :smt119 :smt120
. If you don't believe me, you can watch the episode here (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vgu_pFhqamE).

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psychokiller

PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2016 1:55 am    Author: psychokiller    Post subject: Re: Improbable DOND events
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The whole of the power 5 - GONE - in the first round. Take a bow, Jean. 1 in 26,344.

Something which occurred in June 2006, but not a stat I've mentioned here (I don't think), is when there were two consecutive games with the same amounts eliminated by 14-box. The odds were well over 5,000,000 to 1.

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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Sat Jan 16, 2016 4:55 am    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: Improbable DOND events
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The odds of two consecutive 14 box boards being the same is 1 in 319,770.

Not sure who you are referring to, though. :ponder:

Stevie and Janie nearly had the same board at the 2nd offer but Janie had 50p in place of Stevie's £500. It is astonishing how similar their board's were throughout the game, though. :shock:

Yep, I just finished going through the June 2006 commentaries and that's by far the closest we got to consecutive identical 14 boxes.

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psychokiller

PostPosted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 8:09 pm    Author: psychokiller    Post subject: Re: Improbable DOND events
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Bits and pieces I'll run through while the studio games draw to a conclusion:

Nobody in the whole of 2013 had an all-blue five box.

We've had fewer 7-boxes of one colour than you'd have expected to happen (1 in 517). Discounting the three players who had one-colour boards prior to the 7-box stage, only on four occasions have we seen a player facing an all-blue/red 7 box after having removed the final opposing colour in the 15th box. Surprising still is that only once did we see an all-blue 7 box created in this way, in Nikki Tucker's game (which was one of the worst possible 7-box boards it was possible to have).

Unless something special happens in the final handful of games, only *once* has someone removed the £250k followed by the £100k in the first two picks of the game (plenty have done it the other way 'round) and it happened 10 years ago. Joey on 27/12/2006.

The best opening round was achieved in October 2015, when Harry removed everything below £10 except for the £1. It's a 1 in 4,389 chance. The worst opening round of them all was the worst *possible* and it was written up by me only two posts above this one. Jean in January 2016, Power 5 wipeout.

The unlikeliest board *by far* was Brenda's 9-box waaay back in February 2006. It was one of the 4 best possible 9-box combinations and the odds of that are a synapse melting 1 in 124,355. The fact this happened so young into the game's history (pre-100 shows, black and white labels!) makes it all the more amazing. It was held as a general benchmark for strong games, even though it was way more than that. We shouldn't have seen it in our lifetimes.

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