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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 11:27 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Catch 23 Deal or No Deal

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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** RING **

The Banker thinks his cash boost on the card may have been a mistake...

BANKER'S OFFER

£38,888


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Also a Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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KP

PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 11:36 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Catch 23 Deal or No Deal
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
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I make that about two-thirds of the average. Tough to turn that down at these stakes, but three-box game and two to open makes it mighty tempting to anyway, certainly with a four-figure lock-in.

Risking just over £40k here though, and the 1p definitely has psychological power. I think the Banker might be less generous at 4-box if the 1p is there, I think he's gone a bit defensive here because he's on tilt a bit from the mistake he made with the card offer, and you have to take advantage of the openings you can get when your opponent is on tilt. I think this offer is that opening. DEAL.

Proveout is 27, 25, 23, 21, 19, 15, 11, 13, 9, 7, 5, 3, 1.

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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 11:45 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Catch 23 Deal or No Deal

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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It's a DEAL! As it is, you're on a wonderfully bizarre win of £44,943.16 :D But let's play it through, let's see what happens playing onward!


27 - +£5,000 would actually have been good news at this stage!

25 - £500 certainly would have been!

23 - ADD HALF would have taken us to this six-box on the cards...

    DOUBLE
    +£35,000
    +£15,000

    -£2,500
    -£15,000
    HALF
    QUARTER

With that amount of money, the offer would have been +£5,000 here!

Next...

21 - QUARTER was the perfect one to get rid of there....

19 - 1p! That was perfect for the cash!!

    £10,000
    £50,000
    £75,000
    £250,000

BANKER'S OFFER
WOULD'VE BEEN

£77,777



So this isn't going well, but let's try turn that around :P

_________________
Host and co-developer of forum Race to a Billion - Season 7 now in progress. Follow us on Twitter @racetoabillion.
Race to a Billion Season 7 Live Leaderboard can be found HERE.
Host of Aaron's DoND, now in its fourth season. Drop me a PM if you wish to arrange a game.
Also a Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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KP

PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 11:47 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Catch 23 Deal or No Deal
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Well I dealt based on the assumption the Banker wouldn't be generous at 4-box if there was any danger. Turns out I hit the 1-in-15 chance of there not being any. :smt046

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Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 11:55 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Catch 23 Deal or No Deal

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
15 - DOUBLE would've had a much bigger impact with the huge game going on on the left!

+£35,000 / +£15,000 / -£2,500 / -£15,000 for a straight up offer of +£6,300...

11 - +£15,000 would now have pushed you to the brink of a guaranteed negative card...

13 - -£15,000... and it'd have balanced out!

+£35,000 / -£2,500 would've given you a final offer of +£125² = +£15,625

9 - £75,000 keeps us teetering on the edge on the cash...

7 - -£2,500! You'd now have had a massive +£35,000 card in your hand!

5 - £50,000 leaves a big £10,000 vs £250,000 finish...

BANKER'S OFFER
WOULD'VE BEEN

£88,888



3 - £10,000!! Well how about that?! This bizarre game would have ended up with a £285k win! £250,000 was in Box 1 and +£35,000 over in Box 17. Surely you can't be too upset with just shy of £45k though!

So that was a thing that happened... And maybe it'll happen again, potentially with changes? We'll see!

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Host and co-developer of forum Race to a Billion - Season 7 now in progress. Follow us on Twitter @racetoabillion.
Race to a Billion Season 7 Live Leaderboard can be found HERE.
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Also a Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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