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Deal or No Deal forum index » DoND Activities, Games & Quizzes Forums » UK & Worldwide Forum Series » KP's SeriesAll times are UTC [ DST ]



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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:21 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.2 | Game #52 [Aaron]

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An EV there of £13,125 - that itself would’ve been a nice offer but I’m not happy with the 1 in 6 chance of crashing to nothing with 14 boxes with seals still on them - NO DEAL.

7, 17 and 6 please.

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:23 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.2 | Game #52 [Aaron]
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A very interesting reaction there! We'll take care of three of those seals now...

Box 7 - £250! Tremendous start. Just two true blues remain already!

Box 17 - £35,000 is a blow, but there's three higher and two are much higher...

Box 6 - £13,000 completes a round that's hard to be too upset with!

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:28 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.2 | Game #52 [Aaron]
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And here we are at the halfway point with an intriguing configuration...

1p
£3,000.50
£3,001
£6.010
£50

£7,000
£9,000
£15,000
£50,000
£106,500
£127,500


Are we breaking out of the £17,500 theme here after that last remark?

BANKER'S OFFER

£17,500 ON COMPULSORY 23



Yes we are, it's back to the first offer! Is it more tempting with the jackpot gone? Still the danger of El Zippo from it, but also the prospect of a Power 5 deal at 11-box with the jackpot gone... Deal or No Deal?

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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:31 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.2 | Game #52 [Aaron]

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Certainly an improved offer in terms of EV, but I still dislike that NOTHING option too much to even consider it unfortunately - NO DEAL.

16, 10 and 13 please.

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:33 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.2 | Game #52 [Aaron]
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That threat of El Zippo powering Aaron on here! Based on that, you have to imagine losing the 1p would be a HUGE boost...

Box 16 - £3,001 will be thrown out gladly as well!

Box 10 - £50! Oh my, if and when the penny drops it'll be a four-figure floor...

Box 13 -
£3,000.50! Now the second-lowest on this 8-box is £6,010!!

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:38 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.2 | Game #52 [Aaron]
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Even with two of them being bumped up, that was still just as glorious an ABR.

1p
£6.010

£7,000
£9,000
£15,000
£50,000
£106,500
£127,500


Surely that board is now worth more than £17,500, right?

BANKER'S OFFER

£26,000



THERE we go. The Banker has gone for the straight bid of the Governor, surely a statement of him intending to get a Deal here. But with a floor of over six grand if and when the penny drops, the risk may seem all the more viable... the problem being that it's more likely than not that it's still there at 5-box! Deal or No Deal?

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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:42 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.2 | Game #52 [Aaron]

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That’s more like it! Coming up to two thirds of the average at 8-box is a good place to be, but I’ve got plenty of cushioning if this next round doesn’t go so well for me that I feel comfortable to NO DEAL here.

Going for 3, 12 and 20 please!

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:45 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.2 | Game #52 [Aaron]
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Recognising the generosity, but with the stability... still tempted on.

Will the Banker be forced into a bigger hole at 5-box?

Box 3 - £50,000! Makes it a two-box game...

Box 12 - £6,010! And that ensures at least one of them is there at the call, and leaves just the one blue... THE one blue.

Box 20 -
£15,000! The big two are still there, and so too is the 1p... what a 5-box!

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:51 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.2 | Game #52 [Aaron]
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1p
£7,000
£9,000
£106,500
£127,500


The Banker says he can't believe your decision to bump up one of the big reds like this has been rewarded! But he says that he knows you're scared of winning nothing, and he wonders if you'd have taken the £26,000 if he'd promised to make only compulsory-23 offers until the 1p went...

...

...because that's what he's doing now. Starting here.

BANKER'S OFFER

£26,000 ON COMPULSORY 23



Wait, that's gone down on the last offer! No fair! Surely the formula doesn't let him do THAT?

BANKER'S OFFER

£26,000 ON COMPULSORY 23 + KIA RIO



OH! Have a £12,495 car to pair with that! If you play on, we are heading for one of the most intense final rounds we've ever had. If you don't? We're heading for one of the most intense Box 23 reveals we've ever had. Either way, this won't be dull... Deal or No Deal?

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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:58 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.2 | Game #52 [Aaron]

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Interesting mind games... If I was offered £26,000 + £12,495 right now in cash I’d probably take it right now. Taking an offer that has a 1 in 3 chance of drawing less than £26k with a chance of crashing to nothing? It’s a question of whether I take a chance on the board or Box 23, and given that £26k won’t double up to even HALF of my second highest amount now, I have to play on. NO DEAL.

21, 22 and 2 to see this through please...

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:02 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.2 | Game #52 [Aaron]
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AND ON WE GO! For one of the scariest final rounds we will see in this series.

Choosing to take a chance on the board and not on Box 23. The latter, of course, still looms over this game one last time at 2-box. But let's get there.

Box 21 -
£9,000! That's part of the perfect round! It's also part of the nightmare round, but it really doesn't feel it.


Box 22 -
£7,000! We know it's going to be a 2-box showdown with six figures to play for... but either it will be a GUARANTEE of six figures, or it'll be against the 1p and the Banker WILL make an offer that carries a risk of losing the LOT...


Box 2 -
£106,500! There goes THAT incredibly boosted amount, and it's 1p or £127,500!!

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:14 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.2 | Game #52 [Aaron]
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The Banker is scratching his head at the sheer ridiculousness of this situation.

He is going to be true to his word and offer you compulsory-23 offers with a NOTHING risk, because the 1p is still there.

Offers, plural. And neither would see you leave totally empty-handed.

BANKER'S OFFER

£40,000 ON COMPULSORY 23 + KIA RIO



OR

BANKER'S OFFER

£17,500 ON NO-UPSIDE 23 + RENAULT MEGANE RS TROPHY



That second car is worth £31,835! So even if you hit the NOTHING you have a borderline P5 win out of this if you took that. Or there's the £40,000 on 23, which with ANY positive option would be tipped with the car to a win of over £50,000 in cash and prizes, whether the Banker would call that the way to break the barrier would probably be up to him...

...or you can play on for the 50% shot of six figures. It's that simple, and that complicated.

Deal... or No Deal?

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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:19 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.2 | Game #52 [Aaron]

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Well, true to form, the former is out of the question. I can’t sell £127,000 for absolutely nothing, I just can’t. As for the latter, I likely would have taken a cash equivalent, but that is not a pretty car :lol: I wanted a time to come along in this series where I could chase a six-figure win, and as luck would have it, here we are. Let the chips fall where they may - NO DEAL.

NO SWAP if it’s offered, thanks.

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:26 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.2 | Game #52 [Aaron]
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And here we are!!

The Banker has rung back. He says that he should never have done that. He should have learned from Ben's game, and offered straight cash at the business end of the game, and right now he is thinking that if this is the game that breaks the £50,000 ceiling... he deserves it.

IS IT?

Or is THIS the moment the Banker plays with fire but, unlike last time, gets to enjoy seeing the player burned instead? And with the 1p to boot?!?

We've seen Archie play to the end and have the jackpot there at 2-box before missing out and leaving with nothing. Somehow, this might be even more tense in the circumstances...

...

...

Box 11 has won you...

1p :shock: :shock: Box 18 has the £127,500

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:28 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.2 | Game #52 [Aaron]
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Box 23, then.

DOUBLE (2p)
+£5,000 (£5,000.01)
+£2,500 (£2,500.01)

MONEY BACK (1p)
HALF (HALF PENNY)
NOTHING


The Banker wishes you luck and says he honestly wants you to get the +£5,000 here! Confirm the purchase, Deal or No Deal?

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I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:33 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.2 | Game #52 [Aaron]

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Ah well, it was a coin flip which didn’t pay off! Hopefully can recuperate something here with Option 4 please.

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:37 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.2 | Game #52 [Aaron]
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There were 6 items in your list. Here they are in random order:

NOTHING
MONEY BACK (1p)
+£2,500 (£2,500.01)
HALF (HALF PENNY)
DOUBLE (2p)
+£5,000 (£5,000.01)

IP: 81.104.176.120
Timestamp: 2019-06-05 00:29:11 UTC

AARON'S TOTAL WINNINGS: HALF PENNY

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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:39 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.2 | Game #52 [Aaron]

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Hahahaha! You’ll need an extra decimal place in that spreadsheet now. If you’re gonna crash, crash in style :P

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