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Deal or No Deal forum index » DoND Activities, Games & Quizzes Forums » UK & Worldwide Forum Series » KP's SeriesAll times are UTC [ DST ]



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KP

PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:33 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #12 [Ben]
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Convinced the Banker is saving his big push for later! Let's see...

Box 13 - £38,750! Well that doesn't help...

Box 15 - £17,200 doesn't either...

Box 17 - £63,063! What an ugly round!

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KP

PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:35 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #12 [Ben]
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1p
50p
£1
£5
£50
£250
£500
£750

£1,025
£4,000
£11,000
£19,500
£90,000

£305,000

"Good call," the Banker says. "Here's your generosity leap. Make history with a second-offer Deal."

BANKER'S OFFER

£10,500



On what is already a two-box game, is that actually enough? Or does that Box 23 money menu that you chose encourage you to chase the game knowing you have a 60% chance of a red win regardless? Up to you, because it is indeed your game...

...Deal or No Deal?

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:43 am    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #12 [Ben]
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LOL

That would certainly get the cogs turning in a conventional game, but the odds-on chance of adding £2,500+ to any blue win definitely moves me to play more aggressively, so NO DEAL.

21, 22 and 20, please.

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KP

PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:50 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #12 [Ben]
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That Box 23 approach already influencing this game!

Box 21 - £1,025, a red we actually like losing...

Box 22 - £11,000... how volatile do you want this?

Box 20 - 50p! We needed that!

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:52 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #12 [Ben]
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
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1p
£1
£5
£50
£250
£500
£750

£4,000
£19,500
£90,000

£305,000

The Banker concedes that was a round that helped you on balance, but thinks it is absolutely an early-Deal configuration!

BANKER'S OFFER

£13,575



Adding £1,025 for each box you opened! It's an unusual offer, but now you have to decide if it's a sufficient one on what remains a dangerous board... Deal or No Deal?

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:57 am    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #12 [Ben]
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If it was worth turning down £10,500 before, it's certainly worth turning down £3k more on a board that's only slightly more risky but with greater potential gains if I keep the top 2. NO DEAL.

18, 16 and 14, please.

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KP

PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:02 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #12 [Ben]
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And on we go...

Box 18 - 1p! Well, that will help your offers.

Box 16 - £19,500, just to confirm what we already knew about this game...

Box 14 is already worth a spoiler box...

£305,000!! Well, well, well. That is ugly.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:05 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #12 [Ben]
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£1
£5
£50
£250
£500
£750

£4,000
£90,000


The Banker points out the only problem with your otherwise flawless 11-box logic was that you were less likely to keep the top two.

This offer is only as generous as it is because he knows you aren't valuing the blues as blues with that Box 23.

BANKER'S OFFER

£6,000



Taking that offer and putting it on 23 would mean an 80% chance of winning at least £4,500. Whether that's the course of action you'll take is quite another matter of course. At £6,000, Deal or No Deal?

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:16 am    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #12 [Ben]
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Question is would I Deal £4,000 on this board in conventional play, as the Box 23 set-up I have adds about £2,000 to the value of every blue?

I don't think I would, so NO DEAL.

12, 10 and 8, please.

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Miss Deal or No Deal? The US version returns in Fall 2018 with yours truly as a recapper.


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KP

PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:20 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #12 [Ben]
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A clear logic behind the decision, and here we go to try and justify it!

Box 12 -
£90,000! Oh.


Box 10 -
£4,000! All. Blue. Squashdown.


Box 8 -
£50

£1
£5
£250
£500
£750


 BANKER'S OFFER 

£251


OR

BANKER'S OFFER

£2,510 AND NO 23


_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:31 am    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #12 [Ben]
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Interesting decision here.

As the Banker probably guessed, 8 box was a VERY tricky decision for me and I went on mainly in the hopes of securing a five figure amount I wouldn't have to risk on Box 23.

Now, however, I'm basically facing the equivalent of a £2,500 offer on a £10/£250/£3k/£5k/£10k board with the knowledge that the final offer will be a SWAP regardless.

I think in that situation I'd reluctantly Deal, so I will DEAL the £2,510. :smt023

6, 2 and 9, please, and Hypo-option 3 for Box 23.

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Miss Deal or No Deal? The US version returns in Fall 2018 with yours truly as a recapper.


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KP

PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:44 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #12 [Ben]
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Deal done! A frustrating game, but it's a red win!

Box 6 - £750, perfect proveout start somehow...

Box 2 - £5...

Box 9 - £1. That round came too late. £250 or £500 or...

BANKER'S OFFER
WOULD'VE BEEN

SWAP



...yeah, you called it.

Box 4 had £250, Box 19 had £500, this is the bit that matters...

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

KP

PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:46 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #12 [Ben]
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...if you'd taken the other 5-box option you'd have wound up with one of these.

+£10,000 (£10,251)
+£5,000 (£5,251)
+£2,500 (£2,751)

75% (£188.25)
5% (£12.55)


There were 5 items in your list. Here they are in random order:

75% (£188.25)
+£5,000 (£5,251)
+£10,000 (£10,251)
+£2,500 (£2,751)
5% (£12.55)

IP: 81.98.45.144
Timestamp: 2018-02-22 00:46:31 UTC

Sums it up, doesn't it?

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:51 am    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #12 [Ben]
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Definitely far from my best game. Both of my marginal decisions went against me terribly, especially as I would've risked £6,000 on Box 23 for a £16,000 win!

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Miss Deal or No Deal? The US version returns in Fall 2018 with yours truly as a recapper.


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