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Deal or No Deal forum index » DoND Activities, Games & Quizzes Forums » UK & Worldwide Forum Series » KP's SeriesAll times are UTC [ DST ]



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KP

PostPosted: Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:37 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #9 [Ben]
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Box 20 - £100. It's something.

10p
50p
£1
£5
£50

£3,000
£5,000
£10,000
£20,000
£50,000
£75,000


Prediction time?

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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:39 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #9 [Ben]
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I'm tempted to go £5,500, but I'll abstain.

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The next series begins immediately after the premiere of the Deal or No Deal revival.


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KP

PostPosted: Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:40 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #9 [Ben]
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Good job you did...

BANKER'S OFFER

£7,000



...because it would have been a miss! He conceded he went too far last time given the stability of what was left, so now at £7,000 on a rather weaker board... Deal or No Deal?

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:44 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #9 [Ben]
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With a 50/50 chance of keeping the top 2 and likely sending the offer into five figures plus only a 5% chance of losing them both and the offer crashing, this is still a definite NO DEAL.

18, 16 and 14, please.

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KP

PostPosted: Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:45 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #9 [Ben]
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Looking to even this battle out...

Box 18 - 50p! That'll help.

Box 16 - £5,000... just the three zeroes, this is good so far...

Box 14 - £20,000. Well, you isolated the top two, but you did keep them!

_________________
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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:46 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #9 [Ben]
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10p
£1
£5
£50

£3,000
£10,000
£50,000
£75,000


There's plenty of intrigue left in this one. It begins with your second prediction, if you wish to use it...

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:47 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #9 [Ben]
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Given my previous comment, I can see the Banker offering just under 10k here, so:

PLAYER'S PREDICTION

£10,400


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KP

PostPosted: Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:50 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #9 [Ben]
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BANKER'S OFFER

£9,900



And you are absolutely right! It sneaks into the 5% band and you have these two options...

NO-LOSE REDO
+£5,000


Do you want a second cash addition, or one that would put that earlier and bigger one that bit more into play?

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:55 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #9 [Ben]
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I think I'll add the +£5,000 to give myself a good shot at a bailout should things go wrong.

With that being said, £9,900 is a great offer for the board, and to improve on it significantly in the next round is to hit the 36% chance of keeping the Top 2, but with the Box 23 set-up as it is I definitely think it's worth trying to achieve that against the odds round.

NO DEAL, and let's hope there's nothing big in 12, 10, nor 8 as they're opened.

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KP

PostPosted: Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:59 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #9 [Ben]
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Making a play to increase the chances of a bailout, and using that to give him the freedom to play on. That's a fascinating calculation, and you can tell those two decisions were made together!

Box 12 - £5! That's how to start...

Box 10 - £75,000! Oh. :( If this is £50k the Banker will be so relieved...

Box 8 -
£50! Right colour, wrong number! Hope remains here...

10p
£1

£3,000
£10,000
£50,000


Still one prediction left and two opportunities to use it...

_________________
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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:01 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #9 [Ben]
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The Banker knows I like to chase the 50k and I'm even more likely to chase it given the Box 23 set-up, so let's go for:

PLAYER'S PREDICTION

£8,200


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KP

PostPosted: Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:03 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #9 [Ben]
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BANKER'S OFFER

£7,950



Just under eight grand, and in range for the choice!

Not that this one is much of a choice...

ADD HALF
QUADRUPLE


Hmm, I wonder which of those you want? ;) :smt046

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:07 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #9 [Ben]
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Hmmmm, let me think..... :ponder: :lol:

I'll choose QUADRUPLE, and then swiftly NO DEAL this offer.

6, 2 and 4, please.

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KP

PostPosted: Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:10 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #9 [Ben]
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The Banker was going to ring up to make another offer without 23, but he knew you'd turn it down!

Box 6...
£10,000... well, this isn't scary at all... :ponder:


Box 2...
10p! We're one away! We're one away!


Box 4...
£1 AND THERE WE ARE! £3,000 or £50,000 on the table!

_________________
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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:12 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #9 [Ben]
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The Banker knows you want to chase £50,000... but he also knows you're flexible about it. He wonders if you might want to take this offer to Box 23 knowing you'd actually have a 1/3 chance of exceeding that value, and a 5/6 chance of winning a substantial sum of money.

BANKER'S OFFER

£22,000


_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:15 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #9 [Ben]
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The Banker is right: I do want to chase the £50k, but I'm sensible enough not to risk £19,000 on a coin-flip in order to get it. DEAL. :smt023

I would've swapped.

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The next series begins immediately after the premiere of the Deal or No Deal revival.


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KP

PostPosted: Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:18 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #9 [Ben]
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It's a DEAL! I think the Banker was bracing himself for you to go all the way...

...if you had taken on that £19,000 coinflip, though, you would of course have had Box 23 potentially there to get you to £38,000 even if you missed out, and I think the Banker may have expected that to encourage you... evidently not!

In any case, it would have been a swap, we know what you're like with Box 19, and it contained...




£50,000. It would have come up the right way for you, as Box 21 had the £3,000. Not that the dream ends here, of course...

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Last edited by KP on Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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KP

PostPosted: Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:20 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #9 [Ben]
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...this is that Box 23 you've been so brilliantly building throughout your game.

QUADRUPLE (£88,000)
+£35,000 (£57,000)
+£5,000 (£27,000)

MONEY BACK (£22,000)
HALF (£11,000)
NOTHING


There is one ugly outcome from that, but an awful lot of tasty ones... to Box 23, Deal or No Deal?

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:29 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #9 [Ben]
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It was that Quadruple that changed things. Without it, I probably would've declined the £22k with every intention of declining Box 23 with £50k and accepting it with £3k. With the added incentive to achieve a decent win, though, it made £22k a deal and £7,950 a marginal decision, not that I wanted to give the Banker any hint of the latter. ;)

With £50k, this would a tricky decision and probably a reluctant no deal. With £22,000, however, DEAL me in.

Option 3, please.

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The next series begins immediately after the premiere of the Deal or No Deal revival.


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KP

PostPosted: Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:38 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #9 [Ben]
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You clearly set out to go after £50k in the least dangerous way possible. You missed out on it from the box, and that means that in theory that Quadruple may actually have cost you a huge amount of money.

But it could also propel you to £88,000.

This is one heck of a moment...


...and here it is.

There were 6 items in your list. Here they are in random order:

+£35,000 (£57,000)
NOTHING
+£5,000 (£27,000)
QUADRUPLE (£88,000)
MONEY BACK (£22,000)
HALF (£11,000)

IP: 81.98.45.144
Timestamp: 2018-02-18 22:27:23 UTC

BEN'S TOTAL WINNINGS: £27,000

_________________
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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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