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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:01 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #5 [Aaron]

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A LOT higher than I was expecting, though the EV on that 23 is a poor 0.3... I've gotta play to the next offer and try and rebalance 23 a bit, NO DEAL.

8, 11 and 21 please.

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:03 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #5 [Aaron]
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Obviously planning an 8-box prediction! But on what board?

Box 8 - £20 is a great start!

Box 11 - £100,000 not so much, but we had to expect one big hit...

Box 21 - £200 :!: We only get one big hit!! Serious upside now...

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:05 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #5 [Aaron]
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That 8-box that you are apparently set to predict on...

20p
£10
£500

£10,000
£20,000
£70,000
£150,000

£540,000

Where are you going with that?

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Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:09 am    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #5 [Aaron]
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I'd go for £93,500 here.

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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:10 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #5 [Aaron]

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Gonna try again here... If this was a normal board, I think this would be about £20k. Factoring in the two boxes business and the EV=0.3 current Box 23...

PLAYER'S PREDICTION

£117,000


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:11 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #5 [Aaron]
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It's an interesting prediction...

BANKER'S OFFER

£99,000



...but it's off the mark! :( Ben was on the right lines this time...

75%
HALF
QUARTER
NOTHING
NOTHING
NOTHING


Now a 50% chance of zero, but if you miss it, it's big money for sure... at £99,000, Deal or No Deal?

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:15 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #5 [Aaron]

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Shocking predictions :lol: I have to say NO DEAL again here...

5, 7 and 22 please.

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:18 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #5 [Aaron]
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Box 5 - £150,000 :( The game is now hinging on one box, but you've got two shots at holding it...

Box 7 - £70,000 just to make that even clearer...!

...yeah, this needs a spoiler box.

Box 22 -

£540,000 :!: :shock: :shock: :smt009

1 in 56 round. Unbelievable.

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:19 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #5 [Aaron]
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20p
£10
£500

£10,000
£20,000


Not the prediction you planned, but are you making one?

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:20 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #5 [Aaron]

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Things are bad enough as they are, I don't think I'll be making any more predictions, let's try and get £15k :P

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Host of Aaron's DoND, now in its third season.
Also a Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:23 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #5 [Aaron]
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You could end up with more than that, £30k is your ceiling and that could be reduced no lower than £22,500!

BANKER'S OFFER

£9,901.56



Decimated in the modern technically-incorrect sense, and then the reference to the improbability of that round! At £9,901.56, with two to open before the final call, Deal or No Deal?

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:25 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #5 [Aaron]

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Ah yes indeed! My prediction again would've been nowhere near so I'm glad I avoided that. There are some good bailouts with that offer, but I want to try and at least avoid an OPL here so it's a NO DEAL, and I'll take 6 and 1 please.

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Host of Aaron's DoND, now in its third season.
Also a Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:30 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #5 [Aaron]
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Alright, here we go...

Box 6 - 20p! That's that one out of the way, and now another blue guarantees a five-figure sum to put into 23...

Box 1 - £20,000 :smt009 sdgthju

Well, there we go. 2/3 chance of just over £10k at least...

£10
£500

£10,000

The Banker didn't even want to give you a prediction because he wants this over with, so he's giving you a MONEY BACK for free!

BANKER'S OFFER

£6,000


OR, to get a red win at least...

BANKER'S OFFER

£1,500 AND NO 23


_________________
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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:33 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #5 [Aaron]

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I was tempted to take the £6k there but let's just play this out to the bitter end, NO DEAL and I don't want to swap either :P

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Host of Aaron's DoND, now in its third season.
Also a Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:38 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #5 [Aaron]
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And in 16, the other spare box...

£10,000

Box 13 had £10, Box 14 had £500, you're taking £510 to this money menu...

MONEY BACK (£510)
75% (£382.50)
HALF (£255)
QUARTER (£127.50)
NOTHING
NOTHING
NOTHING


Pick a number 1-7 and end this misery :blueponder

_________________
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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:39 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #5 [Aaron]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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3. :lol:

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Host of Aaron's DoND, now in its third season.
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KP

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:40 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #5 [Aaron]
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In 3...







NOTHING

What the beep did you expect?

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:42 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 3.0 | Game #5 [Aaron]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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If only we were in America, then this would never have been aired :lol:

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Host of Aaron's DoND, now in its third season.
Also a Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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