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Deal or No Deal forum index » DoND Activities, Games & Quizzes Forums » UK & Worldwide Forum Series » KP's SeriesAll times are UTC [ DST ]



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KP

PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 7:31 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #28 [Archie]
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Here's an interesting scenario. Obviously very stable. Offer has to be close to the mean.

BANKER'S OFFER

£14,720.20 FIXED



In fact, the fixed offer IS the mean. The conditional one?

BANKER'S OFFER

£12,345 + 23



This is a fascinating double decision with three closely packed above the offer and two some way below...

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Archstered

PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 8:11 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #28 [Archie]

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
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It's a DEAL to the FIXED offer!

6, 13 and 15 would have been next

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Mar 08, 2017 12:15 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #28 [Archie]
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That's £14,720.20 LOCKED THE HECK DOWN. And now, to find out what might have happened if it wasn't.

Box 6... £22,501... that's one...

Box 13... £3,000! One of them would have survived...

Box 15... £20,000, but only one! A £100 / £28,000 finish!

BANKER'S OFFER

UNDEAL



That £14,720.20 is only LOCKED THE HECK DOWN if you choose to keep the door slammed shut on this game. You could be opening the door to anything between zero and £53,480 if you go the other way...

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Archstered

PostPosted: Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:06 am    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #28 [Archie]

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Thank you for the opportunity, however on this occasion.. We'll keep the money locked down. NO DEAL

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:08 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #28 [Archie]
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Alright!

As it happens, Box 4 had...

£100! So the Undeal could have been very costly indeed, though you'd have still had a 2/7 chance of bouncing right back to the same territory you're in now! Box 11 had the £28,000.


Now, I need a hypothetical 1-7 on 23...

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Archstered

PostPosted: Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:11 am    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #28 [Archie]

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
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Would have been 5

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:28 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #28 [Archie]
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If you'd taken the other 5-box offer you'd be looking at this money menu:

BOX 23 OPTIONS
0% - NOTHING
41% - £5,061.45
91% - £11,233.95
141% - £17,406.45
191% - £23,578.95
ADD CAR - £12,345 + Nissan Leaf
+£13,000 - £25,345


And the result?

There were 7 items in your list. Here they are in random order:

141% - £17,406.45
ADD CAR - £12,345 + Nissan Leaf
0% - NOTHING
191% - £23,578.95
41% - £5,061.45
91% - £11,233.95
+£13,000 - £25,345

IP: 86.15.173.210
Timestamp: 2017-03-08 00:10:15 UTC

Good call! You definitely escaped very nicely in that game :)

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Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Archstered

PostPosted: Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:39 am    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #28 [Archie]

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
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Obviously I'm glad I made the deal I did! Thanks for hosting :)

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