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Deal or No Deal forum index » DoND Activities, Games & Quizzes Forums » UK & Worldwide Forum Series » Aaron Brock's SeriesAll times are UTC [ DST ]



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KP

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:13 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [91]
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Yeah, phone time. What a fascinating game this is!

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:15 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [91]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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_________________
Host and co-developer of forum Race to a Billion - Season 7 now in progress. Follow us on Twitter @racetoabillion.
Race to a Billion Season 7 Live Leaderboard can be found HERE.
Host of Aaron's DoND, now in its fourth season. Drop me a PM if you wish to arrange a game.
Also a Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:17 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [91]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
** RING **

The Banker says he really hoped this sort of situation wouldn't arise with your Unlimited Minutes, where you have an average round and take a call. He says he's chosen one of three offers: £22,000; £26,000, or £31,000...

... what do you make of that, then? Is it time to post a prediction?

_________________
Host and co-developer of forum Race to a Billion - Season 7 now in progress. Follow us on Twitter @racetoabillion.
Race to a Billion Season 7 Live Leaderboard can be found HERE.
Host of Aaron's DoND, now in its fourth season. Drop me a PM if you wish to arrange a game.
Also a Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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KP

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:22 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [91]
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What a tough call this is. But I do think I need to make a prediction here so that it's not hanging over every other offer from now on. Then again, if I go for the BB - and this board justifies that - maybe that would hang over every other offer, because when you've got a stable board with a mean around £40k, a £35k BB threshold would be... disproportionately influential.

The problem is that £22k would be a terrible offer for this board, but with Unlimited Minutes I honestly think he might have made it, purely as a trap play.

...and then I have to decide what type of prediction I want... if I go for the BB, predicting £26k actually guarantees it's theoretically possible, because I'd be in the 20% range for each. Similarly, 23 Boost - the other realistic option here - means I get some sort of improvement regardless...

...I think the BB adds more value, so I'll go for that... do I go for the £26k prediction? It's the sensible one, but I'm almost positive it's the one he hasn't offered.

Yup. BB prediction...

PLAYER'S PREDICTION

£22,000


_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:25 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [91]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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£22,000... I don't think he was anticipating you playing into his mindgame there, but what he's actually come in with....


BANKER'S OFFER

£26,000



... the one in the middle! Just over 15% out as you may have sussed out, means you can activate that Bonus Box but only with a minimum win of £75,000!

You're still in control of the phone though, so keep that in mind as you answer the question: £26,000... Deal or No Deal?

_________________
Host and co-developer of forum Race to a Billion - Season 7 now in progress. Follow us on Twitter @racetoabillion.
Race to a Billion Season 7 Live Leaderboard can be found HERE.
Host of Aaron's DoND, now in its fourth season. Drop me a PM if you wish to arrange a game.
Also a Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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KP

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:28 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [91]
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Well, there we go. I didn't think he'd go down the middle, but I think he went down the middle expecting me to think that he wouldn't. Which obviously worked! But it was a lower-reward approach because whatever I did, I was going to get at worst that kind of scenario, one which does actually add some pressure at the end for him if things go well from here!

NO DEAL, I'm happy to play on and open both 7 and 9 for another statement.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:31 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [91]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
Well, that was certainly a spanner in the works to get the cogs turning, but will this game still be running like clockwork after these two boxes?


7 - £20,000, which is actually alright here! Especially in the context of the BB...

9 -
1p!! And now you're guaranteed AT LEAST £7,500 from the main game! Boy oh boy...



BT...

_________________
Host and co-developer of forum Race to a Billion - Season 7 now in progress. Follow us on Twitter @racetoabillion.
Race to a Billion Season 7 Live Leaderboard can be found HERE.
Host of Aaron's DoND, now in its fourth season. Drop me a PM if you wish to arrange a game.
Also a Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:32 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [91]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
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_________________
Host and co-developer of forum Race to a Billion - Season 7 now in progress. Follow us on Twitter @racetoabillion.
Race to a Billion Season 7 Live Leaderboard can be found HERE.
Host of Aaron's DoND, now in its fourth season. Drop me a PM if you wish to arrange a game.
Also a Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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 Profile  

Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:33 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [91]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
** RING **

The Banker says maybe he could have had some fun playing around with some conditionals here, but he really isn't having fun now...

BANKER'S OFFER

£42,500


_________________
Host and co-developer of forum Race to a Billion - Season 7 now in progress. Follow us on Twitter @racetoabillion.
Race to a Billion Season 7 Live Leaderboard can be found HERE.
Host of Aaron's DoND, now in its fourth season. Drop me a PM if you wish to arrange a game.
Also a Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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KP

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:36 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [91]
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£51.5k the average so we are some way from that BB being in play, but a 40% chance I've got an amount on the table that would trigger it, so the Banker has got to be thinking he needs a Deal here. Just the threat of the BB relevant now!

I think the way to play this is to treat the £75k and £125k boxes as being 30% larger than they actually are (BB EV is 1.34x, rounding down due to the variability). That means I have a £7.5k/£10k/£40k/£97.5k/£162.5k board...

...fascinating situation, isn't it?

NO DEAL!

Open 5, then another call...

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:40 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [91]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
Taking it slowly now, and who can blame you...


5 -
£125,000!! Oh, well that brings us back down to earth, and now only one box that'll take us through to the BB...


BT!

_________________
Host and co-developer of forum Race to a Billion - Season 7 now in progress. Follow us on Twitter @racetoabillion.
Race to a Billion Season 7 Live Leaderboard can be found HERE.
Host of Aaron's DoND, now in its fourth season. Drop me a PM if you wish to arrange a game.
Also a Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:41 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [91]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
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_________________
Host and co-developer of forum Race to a Billion - Season 7 now in progress. Follow us on Twitter @racetoabillion.
Race to a Billion Season 7 Live Leaderboard can be found HERE.
Host of Aaron's DoND, now in its fourth season. Drop me a PM if you wish to arrange a game.
Also a Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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 Profile  

Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:42 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [91]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
** RING **

The Banker is relieved to see that, and thinks you should forget about the Bonus Box now and take this...

BANKER'S OFFER

£28,888



... harking back to your second offer!

_________________
Host and co-developer of forum Race to a Billion - Season 7 now in progress. Follow us on Twitter @racetoabillion.
Race to a Billion Season 7 Live Leaderboard can be found HERE.
Host of Aaron's DoND, now in its fourth season. Drop me a PM if you wish to arrange a game.
Also a Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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KP

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:44 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [91]
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With the £7.5k guaranteed it's a lot easier to chase, but I definitely can justify a Deal here...

...but I can also justify playing on, and that £7.5k floor really does feel enough to chase the ceiling. NO DEAL!

Number 3, call...

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:45 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [91]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
Those yellows really igniting the fire... But let's hope that the fire is still raging as we edge closer to the end...


3 -
£7,500!! Wonderful stuff!!


BT...

_________________
Host and co-developer of forum Race to a Billion - Season 7 now in progress. Follow us on Twitter @racetoabillion.
Race to a Billion Season 7 Live Leaderboard can be found HERE.
Host of Aaron's DoND, now in its fourth season. Drop me a PM if you wish to arrange a game.
Also a Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:46 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [91]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
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_________________
Host and co-developer of forum Race to a Billion - Season 7 now in progress. Follow us on Twitter @racetoabillion.
Race to a Billion Season 7 Live Leaderboard can be found HERE.
Host of Aaron's DoND, now in its fourth season. Drop me a PM if you wish to arrange a game.
Also a Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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 Profile  

Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:49 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [91]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
** RING **

"He really wants that Bonus Box, doesn't he? Well here's a pair of offers, maybe I can persuade him otherwise..."

BANKER'S OFFER

£37,500


OR

BANKER'S OFFER

£46,000 & NO BB


_________________
Host and co-developer of forum Race to a Billion - Season 7 now in progress. Follow us on Twitter @racetoabillion.
Race to a Billion Season 7 Live Leaderboard can be found HERE.
Host of Aaron's DoND, now in its fourth season. Drop me a PM if you wish to arrange a game.
Also a Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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 Profile  

KP

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:55 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [91]
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...Can I confirm £37.5k has the BB? Because pedantically he's currently offering £37.5k or £46k, guess which one I'm likeliest to Deal :P

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 3:00 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [91]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
** RING **

The Banker apologises fr the confusion there, he wasn't thinking straight! Who can blame him after this game... Revised offers:


BANKER'S OFFER

£35,000 & BB


OR

BANKER'S OFFER

£43,500


_________________
Host and co-developer of forum Race to a Billion - Season 7 now in progress. Follow us on Twitter @racetoabillion.
Race to a Billion Season 7 Live Leaderboard can be found HERE.
Host of Aaron's DoND, now in its fourth season. Drop me a PM if you wish to arrange a game.
Also a Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


Top
 Profile  

KP

PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 3:01 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [91]
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Those are tough to decide upon. If only I'd just taken the £46k :smt046

As it is... it's a tricky one, but I'm going to DEAL £35k + BB. Box 1 would have been the one I opened before the 2-box point.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  
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