#3 again, please.

3 once more...



You'll be glad to hear that your Offer Box is now worth £34,000!

With all that in mind Stephen, at £20,000... Deal or No Deal?

Thanks very much, but no deal.

21, 19, 17, please.

Round 4 now and we begin to descend down those odds...


21 - 10p!! Again, PERFECT start!!


19 - £35,000! Ah, reality check! If this next one's red, make it a low one...


17 - £20,000! Hmm, interesting one!



You're winning 6-2 here, keep in mind! Banker time...

** RING **

The Banker doesn't want to give too much away here because if you get another prediction right, you activate the Offer Button!

It's up to you Stephen, one more prediction to make, but would you like to make it here to try and activate that button for the next round?

The mean's gone up, but the most significant change with that round was increasing the instability of the board... I don't think I can do a prediction that could cover everything he might do here, since I think on the current board everything from £20k through to £30k would be fairly valid offers...

As such, no prediction, as nice as the offer button would be going into the round of 8 on that board.

Keeping the final prediction card to himself for now, so here's the offer:

BANKER'S OFFER

£24,500

Which had a band of £22,050 - £26,950 so almost right in the middle of the range you gave!

If you play on though, you must open three boxes before you get another offer.

Is it worth the risk? At £24,500... Deal or No Deal?

I'd go another round here. There's only a 20% chance of the offer dropping significantly (i.e. taking out the jackpot AND either the £50,000 and/or the offer box).

No deal. Certainly a reasonable offer; but while the board has lost stability, but I don't think it's lost value, and I'd have been comfortable no dealing that last round - slightly south of where I'd have had to seriously consider it.

As keen observers might have predicted - 15, 13, 11.

We plough on, each box more climactic than the last, here goes...


15 - £250,000!! Oh NO!!! Hideous start...


13 - £3,000! Okay, but we want a blue now...


11 -

BT...

** RING **

Obviously, he says, the offer has gone down, but he believes this is a very generous offer for that board!

So for a live button for the final round, would you like to predict this offer?

I'd go with £14,850 here (as the Fair Deal is £13,725 and the offer is probably not going to be loads more than that without the button in play).

The offer button wouldn't have actually helped on that last round, the damage being done in the first box.

...Amusingly, my earlier prediction of £19,800 is almost dead on the mean (£10 shy of it, I believe), so while technically something he could do for the gamesmanship, he probably hasn't since it's far too close to the mean.

£15,000 would be quite high here, but with him describing it as very generous...

...But I need to knock it down a little, because I have to be able to cover 14500.

PLAYER'S PREDICTION

£15,950

He thinks the offer can't be any lower than £14,500... If it's higher than that but lower than £17,722.22 you're in and you have a live offer button! What's the offer, Banker?

#3 once more.

The Fair Deal has gone up by £2,000 and with the button in play I'm smelling an uplift to £20,000 (or £19,800 ) here.

3 again...



But you have a live offer button now, and he would like to revise his offer...

BANKER'S OFFER

£19,000

OR, you can take this:

BANKER'S OFFER

£23,010 & NO BOX 23

Interesting dilemma now Stephen...

... is it a Deal for £19,000... a Deal for £23,010 with which you would not be allowed to purchase Box 23... or No Deal?

Not much to gain here unless you have the 10% perfect round, so I'd take the £19,000 to Box 23.

Very interesting decision.

Both offers are tempters, mean of the board with no box 23, a fairly strong offer which on average would turn to 30k or so with box 23...

But I think there's at least one more box in this board, so no deal.

#7.

Wasn't expecting that.