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JDGA

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:13 pm    Author: JDGA    Post subject: David plays JDGA's Six-Shift [Game 001]

Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:23 pm
Warnings: 0
Our newest six-shift series is about to start... with KP!
Here is your starting board:
£1 £1,000
£5 £3,000
£10 £5,000
£20 £10,000
£50 £15,000
£100 £20,000
£150 £35,000
£200 £50,000
£250 £75,000
£500 £100,000
£750 £250,000
SHIFT BOXES
L3 Down L1 Up
L2 Down L2 Up
L1 Down L3 Up


You've been given Box 17 to start.
For each round I need a box (1-22 in this instance), a shift box (1-6, you can't pick the same one twice), and then the five boxes you'll open up. Best of luck!

_________________
Fickle, cold and harsh or caring and warm
Strongly opinionated or barely invested, but a constant
You know the wind will always come back.


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KP

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:15 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: David plays JDGA's Six-Shift [Game 001]
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Shift 20 (shift box 5). Then it'll be 8, 2, 4, 6, 10.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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JDGA

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:21 pm    Author: JDGA    Post subject: Re: David plays JDGA's Six-Shift [Game 001]

Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:23 pm
Warnings: 0
Alright, we're getting rid of £150...
and it's the L1 Down, which means it's dropping to £130. I guess it could have been a lot worse?
As for the boxes to open...

Box 8: £75,000
Shaky start...

Box 2: £130
Well, that didn't stick around long!

Box 4: £50

Box 6: £20,000

Box 10: £5

Certainly not a bad opening round!

_________________
Fickle, cold and harsh or caring and warm
Strongly opinionated or barely invested, but a constant
You know the wind will always come back.


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JDGA

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:22 pm    Author: JDGA    Post subject: Re: David plays JDGA's Six-Shift [Game 001]

Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:23 pm
Warnings: 0
£1 £1,000
£3,000
£10 £5,000
£20 £10,000
£15,000
£100
£35,000
£200 £50,000
£250
£500 £100,000
£750 £250,000
SHIFT BOXES
L3 Down L1 Up
L2 Down L2 Up
L3 Up


BT

_________________
Fickle, cold and harsh or caring and warm
Strongly opinionated or barely invested, but a constant
You know the wind will always come back.


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JDGA

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:26 pm    Author: JDGA    Post subject: Re: David plays JDGA's Six-Shift [Game 001]

Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:23 pm
Warnings: 0
*ring*

The banker welcomes you to the game, and to the series. He says not to get too cocky, because it won't take much to start finding yourself in big trouble here. He's looking forward to seeing the jackpot take the L3 Downshift!

BANKER'S OFFER

£4,444



Deal or No Deal? Either way, it'll be time for another shift and three more boxes to open.

_________________
Fickle, cold and harsh or caring and warm
Strongly opinionated or barely invested, but a constant
You know the wind will always come back.


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KP

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:28 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: David plays JDGA's Six-Shift [Game 001]
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
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Obviously would have loved a bigger downshift on that £150 in general, let alone when it then rapidly vanished :P

Pretty textbook ordinary start to hit £75k, £20k, and three blues. Very textbook ordinary start to NO DEAL the first offer ;)

Shift 15 (shift box 4). Open 16, 14, and 12.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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JDGA

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:34 pm    Author: JDGA    Post subject: Re: David plays JDGA's Six-Shift [Game 001]

Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:23 pm
Warnings: 0
This time we're saying goodbye to £1,000...
But L3 Up makes it into £41,000!

Banker's surely regretting his "foursome" offer after seeing that result :P Over to the boxes!

Box 16: £1
Perfect start there!

Box 14: £15,000

Box 12: £10,000

Picking off a couple more of the middle reds, but especially with the shift that's a good round for you!

_________________
Fickle, cold and harsh or caring and warm
Strongly opinionated or barely invested, but a constant
You know the wind will always come back.


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JDGA

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:36 pm    Author: JDGA    Post subject: Re: David plays JDGA's Six-Shift [Game 001]

Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:23 pm
Warnings: 0
--- £3,000
--- £5,000
£10 ---
£20 ---
--- ---
£100 £35,000
--- £41,000
£200 £50,000
£250 ---
£500 £100,000
£750 £250,000
SHIFT BOXES
L3 Down L1 Up
L2 Down L2 Up
--- ---


BT

_________________
Fickle, cold and harsh or caring and warm
Strongly opinionated or barely invested, but a constant
You know the wind will always come back.


Top
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JDGA

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:39 pm    Author: JDGA    Post subject: Re: David plays JDGA's Six-Shift [Game 001]

Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:23 pm
Warnings: 0
*ring*

The banker is absolutely not impressed that you've got 5 values in your Power 5 again! He's glad at the very least that your red-blue balance is still level, and the remaining shifts will be working in his favour... He's offering one of the values you just took off the board, and he suggests you deal now because the L3 Down is coming!

BANKER'S OFFER

£10,000



Deal or No Deal?

_________________
Fickle, cold and harsh or caring and warm
Strongly opinionated or barely invested, but a constant
You know the wind will always come back.


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KP

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:43 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: David plays JDGA's Six-Shift [Game 001]
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
Warnings: 0
The key to this game here could well be what gets downshifted as much as anything else...

This is set up to be an exciting ride. I'm not ready to get off it yet, so despite the improved offer, NO DEAL.

Shift 12 (shift box 3). Open 20, 18, and 22.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

JDGA

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:49 pm    Author: JDGA    Post subject: Re: David plays JDGA's Six-Shift [Game 001]

Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:23 pm
Warnings: 0
We're playing on, and shifting 12... it's the £250,000!!
This deserves a spoiler box...
Shift Box 3... is L1 Up! Your jackpot now becomes £450,000!


And over to the boxes to open...

Box 20: £100

Box 18: £41,000
Well, it was nice while it lasted.

Box 22: £20

Now we're really talking!

_________________
Fickle, cold and harsh or caring and warm
Strongly opinionated or barely invested, but a constant
You know the wind will always come back.


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JDGA

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:52 pm    Author: JDGA    Post subject: Re: David plays JDGA's Six-Shift [Game 001]

Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:23 pm
Warnings: 0
--- £3,000
--- £5,000
£10 ---
--- ---
--- ---
--- £35,000
--- ---
£200 £50,000
£250 ---
£500 £100,000
£750 £450,000
SHIFT BOXES
L3 Down ---
L2 Down L2 Up
--- ---


BT

_________________
Fickle, cold and harsh or caring and warm
Strongly opinionated or barely invested, but a constant
You know the wind will always come back.


Top
 Profile E-mail  

JDGA

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:55 pm    Author: JDGA    Post subject: Re: David plays JDGA's Six-Shift [Game 001]

Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:23 pm
Warnings: 0
*ring*

Banker says that's enough, it's time to get you out of the chair! He reminds you again that with the remaining shift boxes you're going to have to be avoiding the big values for the shift as well, so you should take this because he won't be so generous again!

BANKER'S OFFER

£26,000



The Banker's pulled out the Governor... Deal or No Deal?

_________________
Fickle, cold and harsh or caring and warm
Strongly opinionated or barely invested, but a constant
You know the wind will always come back.


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KP

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:01 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: David plays JDGA's Six-Shift [Game 001]
International Forums Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
Warnings: 0
This is a really interesting position. There's close to £645,000 on the board - and hence a mean of nigh-on £60k - but it's a board that's projected to worsen because there's two sizable downshifts left to one upshift.

How do you frame a £26k offer in these circumstances? Well, it's hard. Clearly this is the first legitimately dealable offer of the game. Would I take half the mean on a board of this strength normally? Is "treat the mean as ~12% lower than it actually is" an appropriate modifier in this odd spot? I love this dilemma.

Ultimately, I think it's quite hard to regret "only" taking £26,000, and really quite easy to regret turning £26,000 into a fraction of that. DEAL.

Shift 9 (shift box 2). Open 15, 19, 21.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

JDGA

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:07 pm    Author: JDGA    Post subject: Re: David plays JDGA's Six-Shift [Game 001]

Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:23 pm
Warnings: 0
It's a done deal, you're leaving with £26,000! Congratulations!

Now it's over to the proveout, though the shifts are still going to count for the next game.
On that note we're shifting £500 with the L2 Down, leaving it as a second £200...

Box 15: £100,000

Box 19: £750

Box 21: £50,000

Would have left you with even more of a focus on the jackpot!

_________________
Fickle, cold and harsh or caring and warm
Strongly opinionated or barely invested, but a constant
You know the wind will always come back.


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JDGA

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:10 pm    Author: JDGA    Post subject: Re: David plays JDGA's Six-Shift [Game 001]

Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:23 pm
Warnings: 0
--- £3,000
--- £5,000
£10 ---
--- ---
--- ---
--- £35,000
--- ---
£200 ---
£200 ---
£250 ---
--- £450,000
SHIFT BOXES
L3 Down ---
--- L2 Up
--- ---


BANKER'S OFFER
WOULD'VE BEEN

£15,555



Would have been a punishing drop for losing the backups.

_________________
Fickle, cold and harsh or caring and warm
Strongly opinionated or barely invested, but a constant
You know the wind will always come back.


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KP

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:12 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: David plays JDGA's Six-Shift [Game 001]
International Forums Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
Warnings: 0
Someone's going to leave this game feeling very relieved. Possibly more than one someone!

Shift 6 (shift box 1). Open 11, 13, and 9.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

JDGA

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:17 pm    Author: JDGA    Post subject: Re: David plays JDGA's Six-Shift [Game 001]

Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:23 pm
Warnings: 0
It's the £250 being hit by the L2 Up, becoming £1,800! Of course, that means we're saving the worst until last...

Box 11: £3,000

Box 13: £1,800
No impact on the current game this time.

Box 9: £5,000

Kind of an all-red-round? Wouldn't have been a problem at this point in the game, though!

_________________
Fickle, cold and harsh or caring and warm
Strongly opinionated or barely invested, but a constant
You know the wind will always come back.


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JDGA

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:18 pm    Author: JDGA    Post subject: Re: David plays JDGA's Six-Shift [Game 001]

Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:23 pm
Warnings: 0
--- ---
--- ---
£10 ---
--- ---
--- ---
--- £35,000
--- ---
£200 ---
£200 ---
--- ---
--- £450,000
SHIFT BOXES
L3 Down ---
--- ---
--- ---

_________________
Fickle, cold and harsh or caring and warm
Strongly opinionated or barely invested, but a constant
You know the wind will always come back.


Top
 Profile E-mail  

JDGA

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:20 pm    Author: JDGA    Post subject: Re: David plays JDGA's Six-Shift [Game 001]

Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:23 pm
Warnings: 0

BANKER'S OFFER
WOULD'VE BEEN

£31,110


Would have doubled up...

I can't imagine facing this in live play staring down the barrel of the L3 Down when you've already got a 30% disaster chance. There's one more shift to make, and the question everyone's asking now: Could you have won the confetti in the debut game?

_________________
Fickle, cold and harsh or caring and warm
Strongly opinionated or barely invested, but a constant
You know the wind will always come back.


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