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KP

PostPosted: Sun Mar 25, 2018 2:44 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays ACB's Deal or No Deal 016
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Interesting.

I think this is an offer where the bonus money materially impacts my gameplay. It's a tough situation to play on, but with a £3k floor, there's less to be scared of. NO DEAL.

11, 13, and 9...

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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Sun Mar 25, 2018 2:57 am    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP plays ACB's Deal or No Deal 016
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On you go. Did the Banker lure you into a trap, or did he make a massive error?

11- £15,000 :?

The land mine remiains, but it's now even more vital that you miss it! :eyes:

13- £1

If the Banker was trying to subtly hint at you the £1 with his previous comment, he was certainly lying. :D

Have you successfully walked the tightrope for 3 consecutive rounds?

9-
£5 :D :D

Board:

10p
£750

£2,000
£5,000
£150,000


** RING **

The Banker says he's thankful that you don't have the button, as it could have been a huge aid for you on this board.

Before he makes a financial offer, he has a special offer for you............

BANKER'S OFFER

Hand back the guaranteed £3,000, and he'll let you proceed one box at a time



He then says he'll be willing to offer thousands more here if you have flexibility of one box at a time, and if you find either blue in the first box he'll offer you £26,000 at 4 box!

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KP

PostPosted: Sun Mar 25, 2018 2:59 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays ACB's Deal or No Deal 016
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That's a brilliantly judged extra offer, it really is.

However, I don't trust the offer at 4-box with an orange going, which I think is pivotal here. NO DEAL.

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Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Sun Mar 25, 2018 3:04 am    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP plays ACB's Deal or No Deal 016
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** RING **

The Banker applauds you for not falling for his trap.

BANKER'S OFFER

£13,000



The Banker claims he would've offered £15,000 here if you had accepted the one box at a time offer.

So, is it time to say enough is enough or will you chase six figures knowing you at last have £3,000 if all goes wrong? Deal or No Deal?

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KP

PostPosted: Sun Mar 25, 2018 3:10 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays ACB's Deal or No Deal 016
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Definitely a good case either way, then.

While I have two blues and two oranges, effectively I have four oranges because of the £3k bonus, and certainly that influences my decision. It's firmly arguable either way, but I feel like I need to rely on 2-box generosity to justify playing on here, and while I certainly think that's likely, I'm wary. Plus, if it was a small Box 23 jackpot I think I'd have been tempted to play on to break the possible impasse on what to do with 23 at a £13k stake, and that's not the case here.

DEAL. 7, 5, 1.

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Sun Mar 25, 2018 3:22 am    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP plays ACB's Deal or No Deal 016
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The Banker certainly pitched that offer well, as it was clearly just enough to tip the balance in favor of dealing while you still were reluctant to do so. Let's now see who is victorious in this battle of wits.

Remember, had this first box been a blue, the Banker would've offered £26,000 had you accepted his proposal

7-
£150,000 :D :D :D

The trap was set, the Banker baited you into it, but thankfully you didn't fall for it! :D :-D

This is already a conventional Banker Spanking, but let's see what the Banker saw in your box.


5- £2,000

** RING **

The Banker said that had you gone one box at a time:

 BANKER'S OFFER 

£999



And he would've offered that at 4 box as well. :P


1-
£750

10p and £5,000 would've remained (not that you really care at this point :P ).......................

BANKER'S OFFER
WOULD'VE BEEN

£1,300



Would you have swapped? ;)

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KP

PostPosted: Sun Mar 25, 2018 3:26 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays ACB's Deal or No Deal 016
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Yes but who cares?

I'm going to bed so may as well say right now it's a NO DEAL to 23, as that's not EV+ enough to tempt me. Hypo 3 for that.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Sun Mar 25, 2018 3:42 am    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP plays ACB's Deal or No Deal 016
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The Banker's mind games would've convinced you to bring this amount to the table:

17- 10p :shock: :D

3 had the £5,000 all along. Clever mind games from the Banker at 5 box, which were aimed at convincing you that you either had the £150,000 or a blue.


And the Box 23 prove-out:

There were 6 items in your list. Here they are in random order:

QUARTER
MONEY BACK
DOUBLE
HALF
TRIPLE
NOTHING

IP: 45.37.206.211
Timestamp: 2018-03-25 02:33:23 UTC

Unfortunately you would've doubled your winnings had you bought Box 23, but it's only a small consolation for the Banker after you totally annihilated him in the main game. :twisted:


Well, unfortunately the early blows stopped this from being a mega-money game, but KP still made the most of what he had and stopped at EXACTLY the right time, which is all you can really ask for in this game. :)

With the £3,000 bonus, KP won a total of £16,000. :smt023

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