(Who knew there were text limits to topic titles? )

Welcome to Week 7 of What Would You Really Do?! With guest banker, American Coupon Boy!

Yes, I have made my return. KP was an excellent guest Noel, but nothing matches up to this overseas fellow right here... am I right?

Well, I'd carry on with some pointless drivel, but it's come to my attention that this is a serious game or something. I suppose this is a business, after all. I mean, there are PRIZES THIS WEE-er, um, never mind.

(statistics will be inserted here sometime in the future; please pardon me for my laziness/lack of motivation)

With that said, let us play!

Round 1

If this were the real game, American Coupon Boy would be ringing in here to make an initial offer or something. Or maybe he'd phone in to inform us all of this week's twist. Or he'd phone and say something about how the mid-2013 banker sucks and would only ever offer £500 for an all-blue round. I don't know. But to stick with the usual way we do things around here, we must open five boxes before hearing from him...

Box 1 has been brought to the table this week!

20 - £75,000

Not a great start.

7 - £1,000

That's an honorary blue, at least.

3 - £10,000

Yuck. We really need colors that don't rhyme with bed.

9 - £5

17 - £20,000



Well, this is an interesting opening configuration to hand to our guest banker. Fyi, the fair deal is £8,450.91, the Deal-Eye* benchmark is £10,483.25, the average is £27,038.92, and if I were the banker I'd be offering £32,000. What will be the actual offer?

American Coupon Boy time...

* Deal-Eye is not an invention of Saperogo. Deal-Eye is copyright StatsMan. If mention of Deal-Eye statistics is later deemed by StatsMan to not belong here, all references to Deal-Eye will be immediately removed. All rights reserved.

I'll start by mentioning this week's twist:

A big part of considering offers, especially in the later stages of the game, is weighing up risk and reward. At each offer, I will mention what I will offer if you have the worst possible round. I will then leave it up to you all to predict what I will offer if you have the perfect round. The potential offer will be a multiple of £1,000 unless I indicate otherwise. If you are exactly right, I will DOUBLE the next offer for you only, but only if you haven't dealt yet. If you are within £1,000 high or low, I will multiply your next offer by 1.5, but any further and you won't get an offer increase. Also, I may throw in some early-2007 level generous offers along the way, making for VERY difficult decisions.

Anyway, that opening round was just slightly below average. However, it made the 4 biggies somewhat exposed already, and if you have the nightmare round now, I'll only offer £500. If you have the best possible round, however, I'll have to make a very chunky offer. However, I don't want anyone to take advantage of the potential double offer, so I am prepared to value box 1 at:

Banker's offer:

£13,000

Remember, you can still negotiate one of the offers throughout the game, and if you choose to do so now I MAY be willing to give the highest opening offer of all time.

NO DEAL.

No offer prediction?

I don't like that, one iota. One iota.

To elaborate slightly; it's his creation, yes. I appreciate that. But 'mention of statistics'? Er, no, sorry. There's something called freedom of speech in our country. If I decide I wish to utilise that, I will do so even if it irks other people. There's a lot of over protectiveness going on here. Quite what Andrew believes anyone else will do with Deal-Eye, I really don't know. It's innovative, yes - but this is a declining game show which no one really pays much attention to any more. The world won't end if somebody else chooses to mention the slightest thing to do with Deal-Eye.

There's time left in this game yet. And at £11,700 - which is still a fantastic offer despite my cheeky attempt at £20,500 - I'm saying NO DEAL!

I predict £9,000.

Certainly, I don't expect to take the box here.

I predict £27,000 for the best possible round - covering my bases for both the Governor and a smidgen above - and say NO DEAL to the current £13k.

NO DEAL £13K

£25K offer prediction!

Round 1 results

In live play
Archstered
daniel123
KP
JoelDavies

It's up to American Coupon Boy to keep track of perfect offer predictions!

Round 2

With 17 boxes left, the chances of the perfect round are about 0.147%. Can we win the statistical lottery?

11 - £15,000

Well, the perfect round is out. At least the worst possible round is also out!

2 - £10

Well, at least the second box wasn't one of the perfect boxes, either.

13 - 10p

One out of three ain't bad...

Normally this would be a fairly good round to have. But since ACB offered £13,000 as an opening offer, this is a FANTASTIC round (£15,000 is very close to the offer, hence is a good box to see), and so the offer must clearly go up to six figures.



American Coupon Boy time...

That was a very good round. However, had the £15,000 been a blue I would've been offering something in the low twenties, and had this been the perfect round the offer would've been £22,000. This means no bonuses for now. Oh, and JoelDavies, next time you might want to predict a HIGHER offer than the current one for having the perfect round.

Anyway, the board have definitely shifted in the player's favor. Therefore, I can can guarantee that the offer will be at least £1,000 even if the nightmare round ensues. However, have a perfect round and my Power 6 (as £10 is virtually nothing in the context of this game) will be gone, forcing me to to go mad with the offer. I wish to buy the box now, however, at the price of:

Banker's offer:

£17,000

I'll say NO DEAL, and I don't mean to look like a killjoy for not predicting; I'm only doing what I'd really do.

Thank you but NO DEAL 17K

And... £31K prediction.

NO DEAL.

Didn't understand the prediction fully but I do now. £29,000

Going to cover a relatively defensive position and go £27k again for the perfect round.

NO DEAL for now.

No Deal...

£28,500.

Round 2 results

In live play
Archstered
daniel123
KP
JoelDavies
Skyline

Round 3

The perfect round would be 1p, 50p, and £1. Can we pull it off this time? There's a 0.275% chance, almost double the chances from the previous round! (I misspoke when I said it was 1.47%; it was actually 0.147%. No one corrected me, though.)

10 - £50

Well, this locks us out of both the perfect round and the nightmare round. Fourth lowest amount, though!

12 - £750

16 - £250

All blue round! Not a perfect round, but still an all blue round!



American Coupon Boy time...

Ouch, that round is going to cost me. Had it been the perfect round, I would've offered £32,000, which means Archstered will considering 1.5 times the amount the rest of you are. However, with my Power 5 untouched in that round, I am not willing to make that offer outright. If the nightmare round is to follow, I will only offer £2,000, but if the perfect round ensues I will say OH DEAR for the 1st time in ages. To stop this from happening, I'll need to pull out my old friend:

Banker's offer:

£26,000

This means Archstered will be considering an offer of £39,000. For the rest of you, however, this doesn't necessarily mean I'll be willing to go that high via a negotiation. Also, if you also wish to be considering an outlandish offer like Archstered currently is, remember to predict what the offer will be after the perfect round. Oh, and Skyline, as mentioned before, the offer will always be a £XX,000 amount and there is a £1,000 margin of error both ways so it is best to guess a multiple of £1,000 next time.

Still a lot left to take from this game yet. It's a decent offer, but NO DEAL!