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cfd

PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2009 5:03 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: KP takes on another slightly altered board game

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
The board reads

1p
£5
£10
£50
£100
£250
£500
£750

£1,000
£2,000
£3,000

£5,000
£7,500
£10,000
£15,000
£20,000
£25,000
£35,000
£50,000
£75,000
£100,000
£250,000


Choose your box, and your first 5 :)


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2009 5:17 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP takes on another slightly altered board game
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I'll take box 9 and go 1, 4, 5, 20, 19.

_________________
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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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cfd

PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2009 5:29 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: KP takes on another slightly altered board game

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
KP has selected Box 9.

Round One

1: £100 - another good start, are we going to have another super strong game?
4: £50,000 - perhaps not
5: £5
20: £5,000
19: £100,000 - ack

Not the best starting round ever, and no £100,000 in the box this time. Are we destined for a lower money game?

Banker's offer:

£12,319


Deal or No Deal? Next boxes?


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2009 5:35 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP takes on another slightly altered board game
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
Warnings: 0
NO DEAL: 13, 12, 22.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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cfd

PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2009 5:40 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: KP takes on another slightly altered board game

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
Round Two

13: £500
12: £75,000 - oh no, another power five amount hit
22: £35,000 - And another!

Only the £250,000 remaining from the power 5 now, but otherwise a strong block of reds left between £20,000 and £7,500.

The banker feels that was very much his round.

Banker's offer:

£9,724


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2009 5:44 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP takes on another slightly altered board game
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Enough backup values to turn down a sub-£10k offer in pursuit of a £250k-inflated offer to come. NO DEAL...

8, 18, 6.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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cfd

PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2009 5:50 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: KP takes on another slightly altered board game

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
Round Three

8: £25,000
18: £10,000
6: £1,000

The banker likes the way this is going, but is still uneasy with the £250,000 still in play!

Banker's offer:

£11,002


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2009 5:57 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP takes on another slightly altered board game
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£11,000 really isn't bad with so many backups gone already, but £20,000, £15,000 and £7,500 still remain so there's room for a later bailout if needs be. Therefore, NO DEAL.

19, 11, 2.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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cfd

PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2009 6:00 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: KP takes on another slightly altered board game

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
you've already had 19


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2009 6:27 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP takes on another slightly altered board game
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Oh so I have. 7.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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cfd

PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2009 6:38 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: KP takes on another slightly altered board game

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
Round Four

7: £2,000
11: £250,000 - nooooo
2: £250

The board at 8-box now reads:

1p
£10
£50
£750

£3,000
£7,500
£15,000
£20,000


The banker can be heard laughing down the phone...

Banker's offer:

£3,382


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2009 7:49 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP takes on another slightly altered board game
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
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Enough stability in that to easily NO DEAL.

9, 14, 15.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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cfd

PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2009 8:07 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: KP takes on another slightly altered board game

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
box 9 is yours


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2009 8:12 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP takes on another slightly altered board game
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
Warnings: 0
Oh fail, 10.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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cfd

PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2009 8:17 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: KP takes on another slightly altered board game

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
Round Five

10: £50
14: £7,500
15: £20,000

Board at 5-box reads

1p
£10
£750

£3,000
£15,000


The banker is loving this game. He reminds you that the 1p/£10 are still in play and suggests you take this very generous bail out.

Banker's offer:

£2,591


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2009 11:19 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP takes on another slightly altered board game
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Just shy of £19k on the board, so mean's around £3,750. With the 30% chance of an all-blue finish and the 60% chance of a finish on which I'll have a 60% chance of being messed around with, it's a DEAL.

Leave 17 and take the rest in ascending order.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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cfd

PostPosted: Thu Sep 03, 2009 1:50 am    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: KP takes on another slightly altered board game

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
Round Six

3: 1p - Would have been the perfect start
16: £10 - Oh no, surely not?
21: £15,000 - Thank god for that!

Leaving a final two of £750 and £3,000

The banker is annoyed that the £15,000 was found in the final box. If it was the £750 then the game would have been a complete and total victory for the banker, with KP dealing the lowest offer in the game and with the two final boxes both higher in value than the deal! Whichever way it goes, it's been a close one with regards to selling the box under/over it's value.

Banker's offer would've been:

£1,871


KPs box 9 contained £3,000

Box 21 contained £15,000


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cfd

PostPosted: Thu Sep 03, 2009 2:05 am    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: KP takes on another slightly altered board game

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
As for what I'd do...

I'd probably play it the same. A very frustrating game from the player's point of view. The peak offer actually came in round 1! And it just went downhill from there. By the end of round 2 we'd lost 4 of the power 5 but still had the £250k and some good backups. Round 3 then removed a few of those backups. And round 4 then removed the £250k. Round 5 then removed 2 of the highest 3 values.

Looking at the offers I think they were all fair, but I don't think I'd take any of them, with maybe the exception of the 5-box offer.

Of the first 3 offers the first 1 was the most generous as a % of the mean (£12,319/47%). And obviously, the damage to the board pulled that % down to 40%. Once the £250k went the % went up, but the mean was now a lot lower. The 8-box offer was 58% of the mean, but I think given the boards stability at this point it was an easy no deal. And 69% of the mean at 5-box on what could end up with a very nasty finish was I think generous. And the proveout offer was fair enough I think offering a straight averaging (though obviously with a few pounds knocked off lol).

I think also the relative values of the money on offer made it easy to go on. Once the life changing money has been knocked out it's a lot easier to carry on. Multiply every number on the board by 10 and I think the 11-box and 8-box offers recieve a lot more consideration. But when we're only dealing in the thousands it becomes a lot easier to gamble.


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