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Deal or No Deal forum index » DoND Activities, Games & Quizzes Forums » UK & Worldwide Forum Series » Archstered's SeriesAll times are UTC [ DST ]



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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:27 am    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 394

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
You're clearly up for a fight!

Box 13-

£250,000 :smt011 :smt011

Well. First box and the biggie has gone!

Box 19-

£750

Another blue?

Box 21-

£10,000

That'll do!

Such a shame regarding the £250,000, but you're still in a strong position!

BT

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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:28 am    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 394

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
10p


£5
£10


£250






£15,000


£50,000
£75,000
£100,000

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29 | Retail Manager | Eurovision | Rats | Corrie | A little bit of DoND


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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:29 am    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 394

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
**RING**

He said the timing of the £250,000 being revealed just after you criticised his offer was perfection for him..

He still has HIS button, you still have yours..

BANKER'S OFFER

£15,000


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:36 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 394
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
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We could be in for a heck of a ride.

It's the best offer of the game, but the stability and the twist configuration provide me with an incentive to plough on, and NO DEAL it is.

11, 7, 9.

_________________
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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:38 am    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 394

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
No mention of your Button, so I'll post all at once!

Box 11-

£250

That gets us very excited about what this game could deliver!

Box 7-

£5

WOW! You're one away from an incredibly strong 5 box - even more astonishing consider the £250,000 has gone!

Box 9-

£100,000

Oh no! There it is - gone from the game... This is far from over yet though!


BT

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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:38 am    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 394

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
OFFER BUTTON ACTIVE

BANKER'S BUTTON ACTIVE

10p
£10
£15,000
£50,000
£75,000

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29 | Retail Manager | Eurovision | Rats | Corrie | A little bit of DoND


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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:39 am    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 394

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
**RING**

He's wondering if you have the courage to plough on again...

BANKER'S OFFER

£18,000


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29 | Retail Manager | Eurovision | Rats | Corrie | A little bit of DoND


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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:52 am    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 394

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
We'll continue this game tomorrow - I've got a feeling we're still on for a ton of cash! Join us for that!

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:32 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 394
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Tough decision. The offer is generous enough for me to definitely take in normal circumstances, but there are multiple peripheral reasons to want more here: the button, the 40% chance of a no-downside 23 meaning the big reds are effectively bigger, and the way Box 23 gives me a 1/7 chance of turning a crash into £40k whilst being hard to take at this stake level.

The no-downside money menu is double, +40k, and 5x MB. So the expected gain is a seventh of the box plus a seventh of 40k. Rounding them both down to account for the variability, I'll take it as 10% up plus 5k, making them £60k and £87.5k.

Effectively, then, I have blue/blue/£15k/£60k/£87.5k and the button, offer £18k. The average on that is over £30k and there's three viable boxes, so I think I'd want to play on with that board. Therefore, NO DEAL. Good case for both options there.

Open 5 and then we'll see if anyone gets ringing.

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:44 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 394

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
Alright! Clearly a lot of thought went into that decision and I hope it pays off..

Box 5-

£15,000

Straight down the middle! Doesn't tell us a thing..

**RING**

The Banker is using his button now, so it's effectively one box at a time..

10p
£10
£50,000
£75,000


BANKER'S OFFER

£20,500


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29 | Retail Manager | Eurovision | Rats | Corrie | A little bit of DoND


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:48 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 394
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I think that's another offer where the peripheral factors are the difference-maker. NO DEAL.

3, button.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:52 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 394

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
If this is one of those blues, you'll find yourself with so much power in this game..

C'mon.. Give us a blue!

Box 3-

£50,000

NO! And what a time to use your Offer Button! Just what will The Banker, or you for the matter do next!?


**OFFER BUTTON**

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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:03 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 394

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
10p
£10
£75,000


**RING**

The fact of the matter is, you're one box away from the nightmare round and only having Box 23 to save you.. He doesn't think you've got the courage to go all the way in this game, so why should he stretch to a great offer?

BANKER'S OFFER

£12,500


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29 | Retail Manager | Eurovision | Rats | Corrie | A little bit of DoND


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:08 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 394
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If 23 saves me, it'd be some manner of saving. But of course it's not a high chance.

What would the blue/red offer be? I think it'd have to be high, given that the red is higher than it seems and the blue is as well. As has been the case before, the board needs a higher offer than it seems because of the specific rules in play. This certainly qualifies, and for the circumstances is definitely reasonably placed.

I've got a 6/21 chance of a blue win here. That's not quite 30%. Is that scary enough?

I'm going to NO DEAL!

1, please...

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:16 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 394

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
Who knows where The Banker is going to pitch the next offer if this is blue..

C'mon.. Give us the climax we deserve!!

Box 1-

10p

GET IN! YES!


BT

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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:21 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 394

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
£10
£75,000


**RING**

Well well well! What to do, he exclaims! In normal circumstances it'd be £21,000, but it's not and he really doesn't want you taking the £75,000 to a no lose 23.

BANKER'S OFFER

£26,000


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:22 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 394
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And now he has to worry he was wrong...

I think he's got the right idea. I was wondering about it being £25k, and thinking I'd probably take that even if I might have been tempted not to. That extra grand takes the regret factor pretty much clean away. DEAL. Excellent game, Banker might have deserved a bit more luck at the end even.

Hypo swap if offered, he can claim I "could have had 75k" either way then and that might be the least he deserves :p

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:31 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 394

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
It's a DEAL for £26,000!

The Banker would have allowed the swap, so Box 17 is now on the table.

Hopefully, you'd have swapped away the 75k!

Box 17-

£75,000

No! You'd have swapped FOR it!

Box 15-

£10

Box 23;

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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:34 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 394

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
I wonder if this #MoneyMenu can tempt you..

BOX 23 JACKPOT (£40,000) = £66,000
DOUBLE = £52,000
MONEY BACK = £26,000
-£5,000 = £21,000
HALF = £13,000
QUARTER = £6,500
NOTHING

It's your decision, but there's a lot of chances to decrease your winnings..

With £26,000, would you like to buy Box 23, Deal or No Deal?

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:40 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 394
International Forums Moderator
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
Warnings: 0
Always a NO DEAL there, hypo 7.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
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