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Deal or No Deal forum index » DoND Activities, Games & Quizzes Forums » UK & Worldwide Forum Series » Archstered's SeriesAll times are UTC [ DST ]



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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:17 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 378
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Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
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OFFER BUTTON ACTIVE

10p
50p






£500



£5,000
£10,000

£20,000
£35,000
£50,000

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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:17 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 378
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**RING**

Two offers this time..

BANKER'S OFFER

£8,001



OR

BANKER'S OFFER

£16,002 & NO 23


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EX Regular Pilgrim, 329 games in total witnessing millions of pounds being given away. Gameshow winner and TV whore.
I'm on the Twitter Machine.. @AGHancock494


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:20 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 378
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Well, that last box changes things!

£8,001 is low enough to have a NOTHING on the lower-tier money menu, but the jackpot would still be too high for me to not chase. And the headline number is too far from the mean for such a stable board for me to be ready to take it.

NO DEAL.

11, 7, 9.

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Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:22 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 378
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Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
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Again, no offer button in this round.

Box 11-

£5,000

That's a nice start

Box 7-

50p

That's a sensational middle.. What about the end?

Box 9-

10p

INCREDIBLE! This is quite some 5 box!


BT

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EX Regular Pilgrim, 329 games in total witnessing millions of pounds being given away. Gameshow winner and TV whore.
I'm on the Twitter Machine.. @AGHancock494


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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:23 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 378
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Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
£500
£10,000
£20,000
£35,000
£50,000

_________________
EX Regular Pilgrim, 329 games in total witnessing millions of pounds being given away. Gameshow winner and TV whore.
I'm on the Twitter Machine.. @AGHancock494


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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:24 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 378
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Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
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**RING**

Because the Deal Wheel hasn't been found yet, and you STILL have your Offer Button to use, he really needs to dig deep.

BANKER'S OFFER

£17,500



OR

BANKER'S OFFER

£28,000 & NO 23


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EX Regular Pilgrim, 329 games in total witnessing millions of pounds being given away. Gameshow winner and TV whore.
I'm on the Twitter Machine.. @AGHancock494


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Davao

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:26 pm    Author: Davao    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 378

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I'd go on KP, because of the button and the deal wheel.

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:39 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 378
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The wheel is a legitimate danger for everyone here!

Money menu on £17.5k is £35k/£217.5k/£26.25k/£17.5k/£8.75k/£7.5k/£1.75k. EV there is over £40k, even before accounting for the BB potential, and there's BB potential on two of those.

Most of the bad wheel options aren't that meaningful here though, and some of the good ones are, so NO DEAL. Open 5 and see.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:43 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 378
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Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
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Playing on! Can you find that blue in the first box of the round?

Box 5-

£10,000

No, but that's ok!


Button or Box?

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EX Regular Pilgrim, 329 games in total witnessing millions of pounds being given away. Gameshow winner and TV whore.
I'm on the Twitter Machine.. @AGHancock494


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:47 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 378
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Worst-case 3-box has £55k on it so onwards with 3 and THEN the button!

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:52 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 378
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Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
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The Button will be pushed after this..

Box 3-

£50,000

Well, that's worst case scenario, but what will the Deal Wheel spin?! We'll find out after the break!


**OFFER BUTTON**

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EX Regular Pilgrim, 329 games in total witnessing millions of pounds being given away. Gameshow winner and TV whore.
I'm on the Twitter Machine.. @AGHancock494


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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:54 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 378
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Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
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Welcome Back! Before the break, KP found the £50,000, but attached to that was the Deal Wheel.

It has been spun and I can reveal the result.

DOUBLE TOP VALUE

So, the £35,000 becomes £70,000! Wow!



Now it's time for the Offer Button ;)

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EX Regular Pilgrim, 329 games in total witnessing millions of pounds being given away. Gameshow winner and TV whore.
I'm on the Twitter Machine.. @AGHancock494


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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:56 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 378
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Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
£500
£20,000
£70,000


**RING**

The really wasn't the option he wanted from the deal wheel! He does though think that Box 17 contains £500, and that's what you'll get if you SWAP.

OR, you could take one of these offers.

BANKER'S OFFER

£20,000



OR

BANKER'S OFFER

£35,000 & NO 23



If you deal the conditional offer, you WILL be able to open the Bonus Box!

_________________
EX Regular Pilgrim, 329 games in total witnessing millions of pounds being given away. Gameshow winner and TV whore.
I'm on the Twitter Machine.. @AGHancock494


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:01 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 378
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...what a fascinating scenario this is.

£40k/£220k/£30k/£20k/£10k/£10k/£2k is... £332k between seven options, EV is around £47.5k but then add the BB outcomes and that's 1/21 chances of adding either £40k or £220k more, so add £2k and £10k for those for an EV of £61.5k. But that's a stack of volatility there, so the £47.5k might be the right value.

If it is, and that's a big if, that offer is better than the no-23 one.

I don't want to crash to a blue win, I do want to keep hope of the mega win alive, I like the sound of a 6/7 chance of five figures, DEAL £20,000. Open 1 of course.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:05 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 378
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Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
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It's a DEAL for £20,000!

Now, we would love to see the £70,000 now to validate that decision.

Box 1-

£20,000

Nope! Down the middle


BT

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EX Regular Pilgrim, 329 games in total witnessing millions of pounds being given away. Gameshow winner and TV whore.
I'm on the Twitter Machine.. @AGHancock494


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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:07 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 378
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Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
£500
£70,000

**RING**

The Banker noted that you don't want to crash to a blue win.. But he hasn't offered this in a long time!

BANKER'S OFFER

BANKER'S GAMBLE



Hand back £20,000 and you can open either 6 or 17 for the chance to take £70,000 to Box 23..

_________________
EX Regular Pilgrim, 329 games in total witnessing millions of pounds being given away. Gameshow winner and TV whore.
I'm on the Twitter Machine.. @AGHancock494


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:10 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 378
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I did expect the undeal there!

A straight £20k on this finish would be a no, but this is obviously a bit more complicated. Would I even take 23 on the £70k? It'd be £140k/£270k/£105k/£70k/£60k/£35k/£7k, all bar £7k offer the BB as of course does £70k itself, EV of that menu is... close to £100k, yes I would take that on.

I've implicitly valued that "£20k" at more than £35k already. The "£500" is a 1/7 £200k moonshot, I think I value that at £10k, I think I value the "£70k" at more like £80k. So it's probably more like £40k on a £10k/£80k finish... close call, but I'll keep what I have. NO DEAL.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:13 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 378
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Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
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Alright! You keep £20,000 which goes to Box 23..

Now, we know you would have swapped so 17 comes to the table.

Box 17-

£70,000

The swap would have given you a massive £70k!

Box 6-

£500

Now for what could be a life changing Box 23..

_________________
EX Regular Pilgrim, 329 games in total witnessing millions of pounds being given away. Gameshow winner and TV whore.
I'm on the Twitter Machine.. @AGHancock494


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Archstered

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:15 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 378
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Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
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Worst case scenario here is you leave with £2,000. Here's your #MoneyMenu

BOX 23 JACKPOT (£200,000) = £220,000&BB *17th biggest win*
DOUBLE = £40,000 & BB
ADD HALF = £30,000
MONEY BACK = £20,000
-£10,000 = £10,000
HALF = £10,000
10% = £2,000

So, it's a number I need, 1-7

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EX Regular Pilgrim, 329 games in total witnessing millions of pounds being given away. Gameshow winner and TV whore.
I'm on the Twitter Machine.. @AGHancock494


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:16 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 378
International Forums Moderator
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
Warnings: 0
4 please...

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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