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Deal or No Deal forum index » DoND Activities, Games & Quizzes Forums » UK & Worldwide Forum Series » Archstered's SeriesAll times are UTC [ DST ]



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Archstered

PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:11 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 342

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
£2,000



£10,000
£10,000


£20,000
£30,000

£40,000
£50,000






£250,000

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29 | Retail Manager | Eurovision | Rats | Corrie | A little bit of DoND


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Archstered

PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:13 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 342

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
**RING**

Another round where the board look weaker but the value remains roughly the same..

BANKER'S OFFER

£29,500


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29 | Retail Manager | Eurovision | Rats | Corrie | A little bit of DoND


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:13 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 342
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Strange game, this!

_________________
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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:17 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 342
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
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Is that still stable enough to turn down that offer? It's a little under 60% of the mean... 20% chance of a £40k Box 23 jackpot if I crash...

...good case either way. I feel like I can take this chance on. NO DEAL!

11, 7, 9...

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Archstered

PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:21 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 342

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
And to 5 box we go! There's one thing for sure, we'll either be in a much stronger OR weaker position.

Box 11-

£40,000

One of your top 3

Box 7-

£250,000

You are red mist... Unbelievable.

Box 9-

£10,000

BT

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29 | Retail Manager | Eurovision | Rats | Corrie | A little bit of DoND


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Archstered

PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:22 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 342

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
£2,000
£10,000
£20,000
£30,000
£50,000

_________________
29 | Retail Manager | Eurovision | Rats | Corrie | A little bit of DoND


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Archstered

PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:23 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 342

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
**RING**

The Banker feels this game needs a bit of excitement.

BANKER'S OFFER

BANKER'S TRADE



If you let The Banker look inside your box, he will let you proceed this final round one box at a time..

Would you like to take the trade?

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:24 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 342
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DEAL. Bombardini and Trebbi found that the optimal Banker play when he knows where the money is happens to be to play as though he doesn't.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Archstered

PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:25 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 342

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
Right! The Banker is now looking inside Box 19..

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Archstered

PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:25 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 342

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
**RING**

The Banker makes it clear that you DO NOT have £2,000 in your box..

So in that case

BANKER'S OFFER

£19,000


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29 | Retail Manager | Eurovision | Rats | Corrie | A little bit of DoND


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:28 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 342
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While I have a 60% chance of a loss if I take this, that's very close to the mean.

Box 23 is a horribly tough decision at this stake level, which is something that's making me more tempted to play on.

I almost feel like I'm making two decisions at once here... and I'm going to NO DEAL!

Number 5...

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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 Profile  

Archstered

PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:35 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 342

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
Going one box to discover what the next offer will be..

Box 5-

£10,000

Well, if he was telling the truth you've got at least 20k in your box!

BT

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29 | Retail Manager | Eurovision | Rats | Corrie | A little bit of DoND


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Archstered

PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:35 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 342

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
£2,000
£20,000
£30,000
£50,000

_________________
29 | Retail Manager | Eurovision | Rats | Corrie | A little bit of DoND


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 Profile  

Archstered

PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:35 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 342

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
**RING**

He states again that he was telling the truth.

BANKER'S OFFER

£23,500


_________________
29 | Retail Manager | Eurovision | Rats | Corrie | A little bit of DoND


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:38 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 342
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
Warnings: 0
He may have been, he may not have been. The thing with this board is that there's not much of a difference between an offer that's crying out to be taken and an offer that's crying out to be rejected!

Credit to the Banker for threading the needle between those two with each of these offers. I'm going to DEAL this one.

Number 3...

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

Archstered

PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:40 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 342

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
It's a DEAL for £23,500!

Box 3-

£50,000

Perfect!

BT

_________________
29 | Retail Manager | Eurovision | Rats | Corrie | A little bit of DoND


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Archstered

PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:40 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 342

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
**RING**

BANKER'S OFFER
WOULD'VE BEEN

£14,000


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29 | Retail Manager | Eurovision | Rats | Corrie | A little bit of DoND


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:43 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 342
International Forums Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
Warnings: 0
Well, that worked. Number 1...

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

Archstered

PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:51 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 342

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
Box 1-

£30,000

Woah!

That would have left £2,000 v £20,000

BT

_________________
29 | Retail Manager | Eurovision | Rats | Corrie | A little bit of DoND


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:52 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 342
International Forums Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
Warnings: 0
Apparently I won the endgame if nothing else ;)

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  
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