Aaron plays Archstered's DoND 327

LAST TIME ON DEAL OR NO DEAL:

Quote:

...oh crikey.

Let's put the money menu down for me to make sense of it first: £400k/£220k/£200k/£100k/£10k. The 80% chance of six figures and the 0% chance of less than five makes that compelling, and the EV of £186k means there is plenty enough of a risk premium over the fixed offer. So it's the 23 offer or playing on.

Can I really play on here? It's a higher generosity, the £5k and even £50k don't feel like such amazing backups anymore... I certainly could justify playing on, I don't think the Banker's offered enough for me to curse anyone who'd play on here, but I do think he's offered enough for me to decide I've taken enough chances tonight.

Well, technically I'm taking one more, but not from the main board. [b]DEAL £200,000 + 23

Quote:

**RING**

KP, you have given us quite the game. We've had a lot of huge wins. We've had multiple Quarter-Millionaire's, we've had a half-millionaire..

But we've never had a Millionaire..

Do you want to be the first?

I think we know where THIS IS GOING!?!?

BANKER'S OFFER

BANKER'S GAMBLE

The Banker's Gamble with he chance to become out FIRST EVER MILLIONAIRE!

Quote:

I thought that since your utility curve is completely flat at £140,000 (to the point that you would Deal that on a £75k/£250k finish!) at that amount that even a 20% chance of winning a lot less would deter you.

I've reassessed a little bit. While £100k is still a key point on my utility function, it doesn't flatten out completely beyond that. I'm 30 and have my life ahead of me, after all, and within that lifetime my country's healthcare system is liable to turn into something a lot more like yours, which certainly is something to think about when it comes to big-money utility valuation!

As for this... ugh.

Which am I going to regret more? Probably the £5k. Does that decision feel incompatible with playing on as far as I did? Well... at that stage of the game a tumble to a few grand or worse was merely an outside chance, likely involving multiple rounds of bad luck (and perhaps a Banker error in between them). Now, I've got a 50% chance of £5k - or a 40% chance of £10k or less with a 10% chance of an actual blue! - as opposed to a 20% chance of exactly £10k as it stands.

Did I mention that I hate this decision?

Ultimately, I'm going to have to say that £100k/£200k/£220k/£400k would change my life...

...but a million would put me in a better position to change other lives too. And THAT is going to make me DEAL!![/quote]

Quote:

Right.. Well here we go.

We've played 325 games to get to this point. The introduction of this game just 26 games ago was going to give us a better shot at creating a Millionaire, but we never thought it could happen so soon.

Everybody would love to see the confetti fall here, KP. The harsh reality is however, we've had a few failed attempts at it since Leah's Platinum Pot win and they have been heartbreaking.. We don't want to recreate that.

Is this it? Is this the moment?

Good Luck.

Box 17-

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Yeah! We created our FIRST EVER MILLIONAIRE.. This is going to be a big game to live up to, AARON is the one who's playing tonight. Please select a game option 1-6.

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

Let's hope I can! Option 5 please.

Going for game 5..

A game where we could create our second Millionaire!

For this game, you have been randomly assigned Box 22. Good Luck!

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

Looking forward to this!

Let's start with 10, 20, 13, 18 and 8!

Here we go!

Box 10-

£50

Box 20-

£750

Box 13-

£5

Box 18-

50p

Well, this is looking good! One away from an All Blue Opening Round..

Box 8-

£500

Got it! What a start to the game after THAT one!

BT

1p
10p

£1

£10

£100
£250

£1,000
£3,000
£5,000
£10,000
£15,000
£20,000
£35,000
£50,000
£75,000
£100,000
£250,000

**RING**

The Banker is having palpitations! Not again... Not again!!

After giving away ONE MILLION POUNDS in the last game, he wonders if you're going to go for glory tonight?

He says that he can't take any chances.

BANKER'S OFFER

£20,000

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

That was one hell of a start, but there's not a chance I'm ducking out this early! NO DEAL.

17, 7 and 6 please.

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

HIGHER for the prediction!

HIGHER than £1,305.50

Can we continue that sensational start?

Box 17-

£10

Well that's SIX blues to start the game!

Box 7-

£5,000

First red, but who cares!

Box 6-

£35,000

Really not an issue.

BT

1p
10p

£1

£100
£250

£1,000
£3,000

£10,000
£15,000
£20,000

£50,000
£75,000
£100,000
£250,000

**RING**

The Banker thinks that anything under a £100,000 payout in this game will be a achievement for him!

BANKER'S OFFER

£26,000

You're already at the guv'nor!

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

Nice one, but not quite enough just yet Banker. NO DEAL!

16, 11 and 21 please.

Would you like to go HIGHER or LOWER for the prediction?

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

And I'll go with HIGHER for the prediction...

HIGHER than £40,010

Box 16-

£100,000

Can we go back to the blues now?

Box 11-

10p

Thanks!

Box 21-

£20,000

You're still in a strong position!

Aaaand your Offer Button is now LIVE!

BT

1p

£1

£100
£250

£1,000
£3,000

£10,000
£15,000

£50,000
£75,000

£250,000

**RING**

The Banker is taking this moment to remind you that whatever you win in Archstered's DoND will be taken to box 23..

So take THIS to it.

BANKER'S OFFER

£30,000

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Aaron plays Archstered's DoND 327

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